Principles for Conduct of Pest Risk Analyses: Report of an Expert Workshop

Risk Analysis - Tập 18 - Trang 773-780 - 1998
George M. Gray1, Jon C. Allen2, David E. Burmaster3, Stuart H. Gage4, James K. Hammitt5, Stanley Kaplan6, Ralph L. Keeney7, Joseph G. Morse8, D. Warner North9, Jan P. Nyrop10, Alina Stahevitch11, Richard Williams12
1Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, Boston
2Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of Florida, USA
3Alceon Corp, USA
4Department of Entomology, Michigan State University USA
5Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public Health, USA
6Bayesian Systems Inc, USA
7University of Southern California USA
8Center for Exotic Pest Research and Department of Entomology, University of California at Riverside, USA
9Decision Focus, Inc, USA
10Department of Entomology, Cornell University, USA
11Plant Health Risk Assessment Unit, Agriculture Canada, Canada
12Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, Economics Branch, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, USA

Tóm tắt

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) have focused attention on risk assessment of potential insect, weed, and animal pests and diseases of livestock. These risks have traditionally been addressed through quarantine protocols ranging from limits on the geographical areas from which a product may originate, postharvest disinfestation procedures like fumigation, and inspections at points of export and import, to outright bans. To ensure that plant and animal protection measures are not used as nontariff trade barriers, GATT and NAFTA require pest risk analysis (PRA) to support quarantine decisions. The increased emphasis on PRA has spurred multiple efforts at the national and international level to design frameworks for the conduct of these analyses. As approaches to pest risk analysis proliferate, and the importance of the analyses grows, concerns have arisen about the scientific and technical conduct of pest risk analysis. In January of 1997, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) held an invitation-only workshop in Washington, D.C. to bring experts in risk analysis and pest characterization together to develop general principles for pest risk analysis. Workshop participants examined current frameworks for PRA, discussed strengths and weaknesses of the approaches, and formulated principles, based on years of experience with risk analysis in other setting and knowledge of the issues specific to analysis of pests. The principles developed highlight the both the similarities of pest risk analysis to other forms of risk analysis, and its unique attributes.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Cohen, A. N., and Carlton, J. T., “Accelerating Invasion Rate in a Highly Invaded Estuary,” Science 279, 555–558 (1998). Derby, S. L., and Keeney, R. L., “Risk Analysis: Understanding How Safe Is Safe Enough?” Risk Anal. 1, 217–224 (1981). FAO, “International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures—Guidelines for Pest Risk Analysis,” Secretariat of the International Plant Protection Convention, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (1996). Firko, M., “Plant Pest Risk Assessments for Export/Import of Fruits and Vegetables Using Monte Carlo Simulations,” Poster Presentation Entomological Association of America Annual Meeting (1995). Hammitt, J. K., and Cave, J. A. K., “Research Planning for Food Safety: A Value-of-Information Approach,” Rand Report R-3946-ASPE/NCTR (1991). Hopper, B. E., “Pest Risk Analysis: Defining the Concept,” in International Approaches to Plant Pest Risk Analysis (North American Plant Protection Organization, Bulletin No. 11, 1993), pp. 19–30. Howard, R., Matheson, and North, D. W., “The Decision to Seed Hurricanes,” Science 176, 1191–1202 (1972). Kaplan, S., “The General Theory of Quantitative Risk Assessment—Its Role in the Regulation of Agricultural Pests,” in International Approaches to Plant Pest Risk Analysis (North American Plant Protection Organization Bulletin No. 11, 1993), pp. 23–146. Keeney, R. L., and von Winterfeldt, D., “On the Use of Expert Judgment on Complex Technical Problems,” IEEE Trans. Engin. Manage. 36, 83–86 (1989). Morgan, M. G., and Henrion, M., Uncertainty. A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis (Cambridge University Press, (1990). National Research Council, Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (National Academy Press, Washington, D. C., (1994). National Research Council, Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society (National Academy Press, Washington, D. C., (1996). North American Plant Protection Organization, “International Approaches to Plant Pest Risk Analysis,” NAPPO Bulletin No. 11, Proceedings of the APHIS/NAPPO International Workshop on the Identification, Assessment, and Management of Risks due to Exotic Agricultural Pests (1993). Otway, H., and von Winterfeldt, D., “Expert Judgment in Risk Analysis and Management: Process, Context, and Pitfalls,” Risk Anal. 12, 83–93 (1992). Paté-Cornell, M. E., and Bea, R. G., “Management Errors and System Reliability: A Probabilistic Approach and Application to Offshore Platforms,” Risk Anal. 12, 1–18 (1992). Paul, R. E., and Armstrong, J. W., “Introduction,” in R. E. Paul and J. W. Armstrong (eds.), Insect Pests and Fresh Horticultural Products: Treatments and Responses (CAB International, 1994). Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, Final Report, Vol. 1—Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (1997). U. S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment, Harmful Non-Indigenous Species in the United States, OTA-F-565 (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1993). United States Department of Agriculture, Importation of Japanese Unshu Orange Fruits (Citrus Reticulata Blanco var. Unshu Swingle) into Citrus Producing States: Pest Risk Analysis (USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine, Biological Assessment and Taxonomic Support, Riverdale, MD, 1995). United States Department of Agriculture, Guideline for Plant Pest Risk Analysis of Imported Commodities (Commodity Pest Risk Analysis Branch, Biological Assessment and Taxonomic Support, USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Riverdale, MD, 1996).