Nội dung được dịch bởi AI, chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo
Chuẩn bị để thích ứng: Liệu kỳ vọng của công chúng có phù hợp với các dự báo khí hậu?
Tóm tắt
Trong nghiên cứu này, chúng tôi so sánh những kỳ vọng công khai được bày tỏ về khí hậu trong tương lai với các dự báo khí hậu. Bên cạnh việc xác định những xu hướng chung, chúng tôi cũng xem xét cách các yếu tố nhân khẩu học và tư tưởng, cũng như trải nghiệm thời tiết trong quá khứ, có thể ảnh hưởng đến những kỳ vọng mà cá nhân bày tỏ. Thông qua phân tích khảo sát toàn tiểu bang về cư dân Oklahoma vào năm 2019, chúng tôi phát hiện rằng cư dân Oklahoma, trung bình, kỳ vọng một tương lai lạnh hơn và ẩm ướt hơn so với hầu hết các dự báo khí hậu gợi ý. Kỳ vọng về nhiệt độ trong tương lai có mối liên hệ đáng kể với giới tính, độ tuổi, xu hướng chính trị và nhận thức về nhiệt độ gần đây. Cụ thể, phụ nữ, đảng viên Dân chủ, thế hệ Millennials, và những người nghĩ rằng 3 năm vừa qua nóng hơn mức trung bình có nhiều khả năng kỳ vọng về những tương lai ấm hơn. Trong khi đó, kỳ vọng về lượng mưa có mối liên hệ đáng kể với trải nghiệm hạn hán và mưa cực đoan gần đây, độ tuổi và chủng tộc. Kết quả của chúng tôi cũng cho thấy rằng những kỳ vọng được bày tỏ về nhiệt độ trong tương lai có khả năng bị ảnh hưởng nhiều hơn bởi các biến số tư tưởng và nhân khẩu học so với kỳ vọng về lượng mưa trong tương lai.
Từ khóa
#khí hậu #kỳ vọng công chúng #dự báo khí hậu #yếu tố nhân khẩu học #trải nghiệm thời tiếtTài liệu tham khảo
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