Predicting downgrade crash frequency with the random-parameters negative binomial model: Insights into the impacts of geometric variables on downgrade crashes in Wyoming

IATSS Research - Tập 44 - Trang 94-102 - 2020
Milhan Moomen1, Mahdi Rezapour1, Mustaffa Raja1, Khaled Ksaibati2
1Department of Civil & Architectural Engineering, University of Wyoming, Office: EN 3069, 1000 E University Ave, Dept. 3295, Laramie, WY 82071, United States
2Wyoming Technology Transfer Center, 1000 E. University Avenue, Department 3295, Laramie, WY 82071, United States

Tài liệu tham khảo

World Health Organization CDC, 2015 FMCSA, 2017 Weber, 2014 Rusli, 2017, Single-vehicle crashes along rural mountainous highways in Malaysia: an application of random parameters negative binomial model, Accid. Anal. Prev., 102, 153, 10.1016/j.aap.2017.03.002 Xu, 2018, Vehicle trajectory at curved sections of two-Lane Mountain roads: a field study under natural driving conditions, Eur. Transp. Res. Rev., 10, 1, 10.1007/s12544-018-0284-x Singh, 2015, 115 Janssen, 2006 Milton, 2008, Highway accident severities and the mixed logit model: an exploratory empirical analysis, Accid. Anal. Prev., 40, 260, 10.1016/j.aap.2007.06.006 Ma, 2015, Modeling crash rates for a mountainous highway by using refined-scale panel data, Transp. Res. Rec. J. Transp. Res. Board., 2515, 10, 10.3141/2515-02 Yu, 2015, A correlated random parameter approach to investigate the effects of weather conditions on crash risk for a mountainous freeway, Transp. Res. Part C Emerg. Technol., 50, 68, 10.1016/j.trc.2014.09.016 Ahmed, 2011, Exploring a Bayesian hierarchical approach for developing safety performance functions for a mountainous freeway, Accid. Anal. Prev., 43, 1581, 10.1016/j.aap.2011.03.021 Rezapour, 2019, Ordered logistic models of influencing factors on crash injury severity of single and multiple-vehicle downgrade crashes: a case study in Wyoming, J. Saf. Res., 68, 107, 10.1016/j.jsr.2018.12.006 Jovanis, 1986, Modeling the relationship of accidents to miles travel, Transp. Res. Rec., 1068, 42 Milton, 1998, The relationship among highway geometrics, traffic-related elements and motor-vehicle accident frequencies, Transp. (Amst), 25, 395 Lord, 2010, The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: a review and assessment of methodological aternatives, Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract., 44, 291, 10.1016/j.tra.2010.02.001 Miaou, 1994, The relationship between truck accidents and geometric Design of Road Sections: Poisson versus negative binomial regression, Accid. Anal. Prev., 26, 471, 10.1016/0001-4575(94)90038-8 Shankar, 1995, Effect of roadway geometrics and environmental factors on rural freeway accident frequencies, Accid. Anal. Prev., 27, 371, 10.1016/0001-4575(94)00078-Z Dong, 2016, Effects of roadway geometric design features on frequency of truck-related crashes, Transp. Res. Rec., 2585, 59, 10.3141/2585-07 Mannering, 2016, Unobserved heterogeneity and the statistical analysis of highway accident data, Anal. Methods Accid. Res., 11, 1, 10.1016/j.amar.2016.04.001 Eluru, 2012, A latent class modeling approach for identifying vehicle driver injury severity factors at highway-railway crossings, Accid. Anal. Prev., 47, 119, 10.1016/j.aap.2012.01.027 Park, 2009, Application of finite mixture models for vehicle crash data analysis, Accid. Anal. Prev., 41, 683, 10.1016/j.aap.2009.03.007 Yasmin, 2014, A latent segmentation based generalized ordered logit model to examine factors influencing driver injury severity, Anal. Methods Accid. Res., 1, 23, 10.1016/j.amar.2013.10.002 Malyshkina, 2010, Zero-state Markov switching count-data models: an empirical assessment, Accid. Anal. Prev., 42, 122, 10.1016/j.aap.2009.07.012 Malyshkina, 2009, Markov switching multinomial logit model: an application to accident-injury severities, Accid. Anal. Prev., 4, 829, 10.1016/j.aap.2009.04.006 Anastasopoulos, 2012, A study of factors affecting highway accident rates using the random-parameters tobit model, Accid. Anal. Prev., 45, 628, 10.1016/j.aap.2011.09.015 Guo, 2019, Analysis of crash rates at freeway diverge areas using Bayesian Tobit modeling framework, Transp. Res. Rec., 2673, 652, 10.1177/0361198119837219 Guo, 2019, Modeling correlation and heterogeneity in crash rates by collision types using full Bayesian random parameters multivariate Tobit model, Accid. Anal. Prev., 128, 164, 10.1016/j.aap.2019.04.013 Dong, 2014, Multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial regression model: an application to estimate crash frequencies at intersections, Accid. Anal. Prev., 70, 320, 10.1016/j.aap.2014.04.018 Chin, 2003, Applying the random effect negative binomial model to examine traffic accident occurrence at signalized intersections, Accid. Anal. Prev., 35, 253, 10.1016/S0001-4575(02)00003-9 Yu, 2013, Bayesian random effect models incorporating real-time weather and traffic data to investigate mountainous freeway hazardous factors, Accid. Anal. Prev., 50, 371, 10.1016/j.aap.2012.05.011 Chen, 2014, Analytic methods in accident research modeling safety of highway work zones with random parameters and random effects models, Anal. Methods Accid. Res., 1, 86, 10.1016/j.amar.2013.10.003 Guo, 2018, Exploring unobserved heterogeneity in bicyclists’ red-light running behaviors at different crossing facilities, Accid. Anal. Prev., 115, 118, 10.1016/j.aap.2018.03.006 Jovanis, 2012 Anastasopoulos, 2009, A note on modeling vehicle accident frequencies with random-parameters count models, Accid. Anal. Prev., 41, 153, 10.1016/j.aap.2008.10.005 Shankar, 2007, Evaluating median crossover likelihoods with clustered accident counts: an empirical inquiry using the random effects negative binomial model, Transp. Res. Rec. J. Transp. Res. Board., 1635, 44, 10.3141/1635-06 Venkataraman, 2011, Model of relationship between interstate crash occurrence and geometrics, Transp. Res. Rec. J. Transp. Res. Board., 2236, 41, 10.3141/2236-05 Guo, 2018, A cross-comparison of different techniques for modeling macro-level cyclist crashes, Accid. Anal. Prev., 113, 38, 10.1016/j.aap.2018.01.015 Coruh, 2015, Accident analysis with the random parameters negative binomial panel count data model, Anal. Methods Accid. Res., 7, 37, 10.1016/j.amar.2015.07.001 SAS Institute, 1985 Hadi, 1995, Estimating safety effects of cross-section design for various highway types using negative binomial regression, Transp. Res. Rec., 1500, 169 Washington, 2011 Venkataraman, 2013, Random parameter models of interstate crash frequencies by severity, number of vehicles involved, collision and location type, Accid. Anal. Prev., 59, 309, 10.1016/j.aap.2013.06.021 Gkritza, 2008, Mixed logit analysis of safety-belt use in single- and multi-occupant vehicles, Accid. Anal. Prev., 40, 443, 10.1016/j.aap.2007.07.013 Anastasopoulos, 2016, Random parameters multivariate tobit and zero-inflated count data models: addressing unobserved and zero-state heterogeneity in accident injury-severity rate and frequency analysis, Anal. Methods Accid. Res., 11, 17, 10.1016/j.amar.2016.06.001 Heydari, 2018, A flexible discrete density random parameters model for count data: embracing unobserved heterogeneity in highway safety analysis, Anal. Methods Accid. Res., 20, 68, 10.1016/j.amar.2018.10.001 Behnood, 2017, The effect of passengers on driver-injury severities in single-vehicle crashes: a random parameters heterogeneity-in-means approach, Anal. Methods Accid. Res., 14, 41, 10.1016/j.amar.2017.04.001 Waseem, 2019, Factors affecting motorcyclists’ injury severities: an empirical assessment using random parameters logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances, Accid. Anal. Prev., 123, 12, 10.1016/j.aap.2018.10.022 Kim, 2013, Driver-injury severity in single-vehicle crashes in California: a mixed logit analysis of heterogeneity due to age and gender, Accid. Anal. Prev., 50, 1073, 10.1016/j.aap.2012.08.011 Agbelie, 2016, Random-parameters analysis of highway characteristics on crash frequency and injury severity, J. Traffic Transp. Eng., 236 Greene, 2012 FHWA, 2009 Bowman, 1989 Hauer, 1997 Halton, 1960, On the efficiency of certain quasi-random sequences of points in evaluating multi-dimensional integrals, Numer. Math., 2, 84, 10.1007/BF01386213 Bhat, 2003, Simulation estimation of mixed discrete choice models using randomized and scrambled Halton sequences, Transp. Res. Part B Methodol., 37, 837, 10.1016/S0191-2615(02)00090-5 Train, 2009 Bauer, 2014 Choueiri, 1994, Safety aspects of individual design elements and their interactions on two-lane highways: international perspective, Transp. Res. Rec., 34 Moomen, 2019, Evaluating the safety effectiveness of advance downgrade warning signs in preventing downgrade truck crashes using a propensity scores framework, Transp. Res. Rec., 10.1177/0361198119847988 Bowman, 1990, Grade severity rating system, ITE J., 19 Moomen, 2018, An investigation of influential factors of downgrade truck crashes: a logistic regression approach, J. Traffic Transp. Eng. Campbell, 1988 Cerrelli, 1998 Moomen, 2019 Ma, 2016, Modeling the equivalent property damage only crash rate for road segments using the hurdle regression framework, Anal. Methods Accid. Res., 11, 48, 10.1016/j.amar.2016.07.001 Persaud, 2013, Evaluation of safety performance of passing relief lanes, Transp. Res. Rec. J. Transp. Res. Board., 2348, 58, 10.3141/2348-07 Myers, 1981 Moomen, 2019, Evaluating the safety effectiveness of downgrade warning signs on vehicle crashes on Wyoming mountain passes, Cogent Eng., 6, 1, 10.1080/23311916.2019.1580405 Zhang, 2012, Crash frequency analysis of different types of urban roadway segments using generalized additive model, J. Saf. Res., 43, 107, 10.1016/j.jsr.2012.01.003 Dong, 2015, Assessment of the effects of highway geometric design features on the frequency of truck involved crashes using bivariate regression, Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract., 75, 30, 10.1016/j.tra.2015.03.007 Mannering, 2014, Analytic methods in accident research: methodological frontier and future directions, Anal. Methods Accid. Res., 1, 1, 10.1016/j.amar.2013.09.001