Potential growth in Turkey: Sources and trends

Aaronson, 2006, The recent decline in the labor force participation rate ant its implications for potential labor supply, Brookings Pap. Econ. Activ., 37, 69, 10.1353/eca.2006.0012 Aaronson, 2014, Labor force participation: recent developments and future prospects, Brookings Pap. Econ. Activ., 45, 197, 10.1353/eca.2014.0015 Aguiar, 2007, Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend, J. Polit. Econ., 115, 69, 10.1086/511283 Akçay, 2011, (Never) Mind the gap: a modest contribution to potential output estimation for Turkey, Yapi Kredi Occasional Macro Notes, 11-02 Akkoç, 2018, Recent measurement methods of the output gap: an application for Turkey, Current Debates in Economics and Econometrics, 2, 357 Alberola, 2013 Albert, 2015, The long landing scenario: rebalancing from overinvestment and excessive credit growth, Implications for Potential Growth in China Alichi, 2015, A new methodology for estimating the output gap in the United States, IMF Working, 10.5089/9781513507569.001 Alp, 2012 Alp, 2011, Estimating optimal Hodrick-Prescott Filter smoothing parameter for Turkey, Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 26, 9 Anderton, 2014 Andıç Başer, 2018, Multivariate filter for estimating potential output and output gap in Turkey, CBRT Working Papers Andıç, 2016, On estimation of the normalized CES production function for Turkey, CBRT Working Papers Antolin-Diaz, 2017, Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth, Rev. Econ. Stat., 99, 343, 10.1162/REST_a_00646 Arpaia, 2009 Aytaç, 2015 Backus, 1992, International real business cycles, J. Polit. Econ., 100, 745, 10.1086/261838 Bağır, 2019, Export competition among Turkish firms, CBRT Research Notes in Economics, 20/03 Barnett, 2009, Parsing shocks: real-time revisions to gap and growth projections for Canada, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 91, 247 Basistha, 2008, Measuring the NAIRU with reduced uncertainty: a multiple-indicator common-cycle approach, Rev. Econ. Stat., 90, 805, 10.1162/rest.90.4.805 Baxter, 1999, Measuring business cycles: approximate band-pass filters for economic time series, Rev. Econ. Stat., 81, 575, 10.1162/003465399558454 Benes, 2010, Estimating potential output with a multivariate filter, IMF Working Papers Billmeier, 2009, Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?, Int. Econ. Econ. Pol., 6, 391, 10.1007/s10368-009-0144-1 Blagrave, 2015, A simple multivariate filter for estimating potential output, IMF Working Papers, 10.5089/9781475565133.001 Blanchard, 1989, The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances, Am. Econ. Rev., 79, 655 Bry, 1971 2014, On the reliability of international organizations’ estimates of the output gap, Dtsch. Bundesbank Mon. Rep., 2014, 13 Burns, 2014, Estimating potential output in developing countries, J. Pol. Model., 36, 700, 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2014.04.004 Cahn, 2010, Potential output growth in several industrialized countries: a comparison, Empir. Econ., 39, 139, 10.1007/s00181-009-0298-2 Caselli, 2005, Accounting for cross-country income differences, 679, 10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01009-9 Clark, 1987, The cyclical component of U.S. economic activity, Q. J. Econ., 102, 797, 10.2307/1884282 Cogley, 2005, Drift and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S, Rev. Econ. Dynam., 8, 262, 10.1016/j.red.2004.10.009 2001 Cooley, 1991, The cyclical behavior of prices, J. Monetary Econ., 28, 25, 10.1016/0304-3932(91)90024-I Correia, 1992, Business cycles from 1850 to 1950: new facts about old data, Eur. Econ. Rev., 36, 459, 10.1016/0014-2921(92)90103-4 Coşar, 2018, A revised direct output gap measure for the Turkish economy, CBRT Working, 1804 Coşar, 2013 Cotis, 2004, Estimates of potential output: benefits and pitfalls from a policy perspective, 35 Çakır, 2020 D'Auria, 2010 Del Negro, 2020 Demiroğlu, 2012, The capital stock and an index of capital services in Turkey, CBRT Research Notes in Economics, 12/26 Demiroğlu, 2015, Calculating a country's capital input: a review, and calculations for the Turkish capital stock, Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 30, 69 Denis, 2006 Denis, 2002 Dermoune, 2008, A consistent estimator of the smoothing parameter in the Hodrick-Prescott filter, J. Jpn. Stat. Soc., 38, 225, 10.14490/jjss.38.225 Dovern, 2019, Recessions and potential output: disentangling measurement errors, supply shocks, and hysteresis effects, Scand. J. Econ., 122 Elsby, 2013, The decline of the U.S. labor share, Brookings Pap. Econ. Activ., 47, 1 Feenstra, 2015, The next generation of the Penn world table, Am. Econ. Rev., 105, 3150, 10.1257/aer.20130954 Felipe, 2020, The illusions of calculating total factor productivity and testing growth models: from Cobb-Douglas to Solow and to Romer, J. Post Keynes. Econ., 43, 470, 10.1080/01603477.2020.1774393 Gordon, 2014, A new method of estimating potential real GDP growth: implications for the labor market and the debt/GDP ratio, National Bureau of Economic Research Guisinger, 2018, Comparing measures of potential output, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 100, 297 Gutiérrez, 2020, Revisiting the global decline of the (non-jousing) labor share, Am. Econ. Rev.: Insights, 2, 321 Hall, 1999, Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others?, Q. J. Econ., 114, 83, 10.1162/003355399555954 Hamilton, 2018, Why you should never use the Hodrick-Prescott filter, Rev. Econ. Stat., 100, 831, 10.1162/rest_a_00706 Harvey, 1990 Havik, 2014 Hodrick, 1981, Post-War U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation, J. Money Credit Bank., 29, 1, 10.2307/2953682 Hodrick, 1997, Post-War U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation, J. Money Credit Bank., 29, 1, 10.2307/2953682 Hulten, 1981, Depreciation, inflation, and the taxation of income from capital, 81 2015 2018 Kara, 2007, Estimating the output gap in a changing economy, South. Econ. J., 74, 269, 10.1002/j.2325-8012.2007.tb00837.x Karabarbounis, 2014, The global decline of the labor share, Q. J. Econ., 129, 61, 10.1093/qje/qjt032 Kawamoto, 2017, 5 Kim, 1999, Has the U.S. economy become more stable? A Bayesian approach based on A Markov-Switching model of the business cycle, Rev. Econ. Stat., 81, 608, 10.1162/003465399558472 Klump, 2007, Factor substitution and factor augmenting technical progress in the US, Rev. Econ. Stat., 89, 183, 10.1162/rest.89.1.183 Koh, 2020, Labor share decline and intellectual property products capital, Econometrica Forthcoming, 88, 2609, 10.3982/ECTA17477 Kudlyak, 2013, A Cohort Model of labor force participation, Econ. Q. - Fed. Reserve Bank Richmond, 89, 25 Lancaster, 2015 Lanzafame, 2016, Potential growth in Asia and its determinants: an empirical investigation, Asian Dev. Rev. Stud. Asian Pac. Econ. Issues, 33, 1 Lenza, 2020 2000 Matheny, 2009, Trends in the aggregate labor force, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 91, 297 McMorrow, 2015, An assessment of the relative quality of the EU output gap estimates, Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, 14, 19 Metin-Özcan, 2006, Sources of growth and the output gap for the Turkish economy, 237 Morley, 2003, Why are the Beveridge-Nelson and unobserved-components decompositions of GDP so different?, Rev. Econ. Stat., 85, 235, 10.1162/003465303765299765 Mumtaz, 2020, Dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic volatility, J. Monetary Econ., 114, 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.03.011 OECD, 2001 Measuring capital: OECD manual. Measurement of capital stocks, consumption of fixed capital and capital services. Öğünç, 2004, Estimating the output gap for Turkey: an unobserved components approach, Appl. Econ. Lett., 11, 177, 10.1080/1350485042000203814 Öğünç, 2011, Gorunmez ama hissedilmez degil: Turkiye'de çikti acigi, Central Bank Review, 11, 15 Ollivaud, 2015, The effect of the global financial crisis on OECD potential output, OECD Journal: Econ. Stud., 2014, 41 Özbek, 2005, Employing the extended Kalman filter in measuring the output gap, J. Econ. Dynam. Control, 29, 1611, 10.1016/j.jedc.2004.09.005 Özbek, 2008, Analyzing time-varying effects of potential output growth shocks, Econ. Lett., 98, 294, 10.1016/j.econlet.2007.05.006 Pedersen, 2001, The Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Slutzky effect, and the distortionary effect of filters, J. Econ. Dynam. Control, 25, 1081, 10.1016/S0165-1889(99)00059-7 Pichette, 2015 Planas, 2004 Primiceri, 2005, Time varying structural vector autoregressions and monetary policy, Rev. Econ. Stud., 72, 821, 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2005.00353.x Primiceri, 2020, Macroeconomic forecasting in the time of COVID-19, Northwestern University Working Paper Ravn, 2002, On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations, Rev. Econ. Stat., 84, 371, 10.1162/003465302317411604 Saraçoğlu, 2014, Alternative methods of estimating output gap for Turkey, Bus. Econ. Res. J., 5, 43 Saygılı, 2008, Türkiye ekonomisin büyüme dinamikleri – 1987-2007 döneminde büyümenin kaynakları, temel sorunlar ve potansiyel büyüme oranı, TÜSİAD Ekonomik Araştırmalar Bölümü Yayınları Sekkat, 2007, Sources of growth in Morocco: an emperical analysis in a regional perspective, Rev. Middle East Econ. Finance, 2, 1, 10.2202/1475-3693.1017 Senhadji, 2000, Sources of economic growth: an extensive growth accounting exercise, IMF Staff Pap., 47, 129, 10.2307/3867628 Shackleton, 2018 Smets, 2007, Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a bayesian DSGE approach, Am. Econ. Rev., 97, 586, 10.1257/aer.97.3.586 Üngör, 2012, A production function method of estimating the output gap, CBRT Research Notes in Economics Watson, 1986, Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends, J. Monetary Econ., 18, 49, 10.1016/0304-3932(86)90054-1 2019