Potential for low-cost carbon dioxide removal through tropical reforestation

Nature Climate Change - Tập 9 Số 6 - Trang 463-466 - 2019
Jonah Busch1, Jens Engelmann2, Susan C. Cook‐Patton3, Bronson W. Griscom3, Timm Kroeger3, Hugh P. Possingham3, Priya Shyamsundar3
1Earth Innovation Institute, San Francisco, CA, USA
2Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA
3The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, USA

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Minx, J. C. et al. Negative emissions—Part 1: research landscape and synthesis. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 063001 (2018).

Rogelj, J. et al. in Global Warming of 1.5 °C. (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) Ch. 2 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2018).

Dixon, R. K. et al. Carbon pools and flux of global forest ecosystems. Science 263, 185–191 (1994).

Silver, W. L., Ostertag, R. & Lugo, A. E. The potential for carbon sequestration through reforestation of abandoned tropical agricultural and pasture lands. Restor. Ecol. 8, 394–407 (2000).

Griscom, B. et al. Natural climate solutions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 11645–11650 (2017).

Fuss, S. et al. Negative emissions—Part 2: costs, potentials and side effects. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 063002 (2018).

Hawes, M. Planting carbon storage. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 556–558 (2018).

Mitchard, E. The tropical forest carbon cycle and climate change. Nature 559, 527–534 (2018).

Smith, et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) Ch. 11 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

Kesicki, F. & Strachan, N. Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves: confronting theory and practice. Environ. Sci. Policy 14, 1195–1204 (2011).

Gilroy, J. J. et al. Cheap carbon and biodiversity co-benefits from forest regeneration in a hotspot of endemism. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 503–507 (2014).

Busch, J. & Engelmann, J. Cost-effectiveness of reducing emissions from tropical deforestation, 2016-2050. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 015001 (2018).

Global Tree Canopy Cover Circa 2010 (United States Geological Survey, accessed 12 April 2018).

Hansen, M. C. et al. High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change. Science 42, 850–853 (2013).

Anderson-Teixeira, K. J., Wang, M. M. H., McGarvey, J. C. & LeBauer, D. S. Carbon dynamics of mature and regrowth tropical forests derived from a pantropical database (TropForC-db). Glob. Change Biol. 22, 1690–1709 (2016).

Petersen, R. et al. Mapping Tree Plantations with Multispectral Imagery: Preliminary Results for Seven Tropical Countries (World Resources Institute, 2016).

Pan, Y. et al. A large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forests. Science 333, 988–993 (2011).

Baccini, A. et al. Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 182–185 (2012).

Grace, J. et al. Perturbations in the carbon budget of the tropics. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 3238–3255 (2014).

Busch, J. & Ferretti-Gallon, K. What drives deforestation and what stops it? A meta-analysis. Rev. Environ. Econ. Policy 11, 3–23 (2017).

CAIT Climate Data Explorer (World Resources Institute, accessed 15 June 2018).

Progress on the New York Declaration on Forests—An Assessment Framework and Initial Report (Climate Focus, 2015).

Grassi, G. et al. The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 220–228 (2017).

Chomitz, K. M., Brenes, E. & Constantino, L. Financing environmental services: the Costa Rican experience and its implications. Sci. Total Environ. 240, 157–169 (1999).

Chazdon, R. L. & Guariguata, M. R. Natural regeneration as a tool for large-scale forest restoration in the tropicals: prospects and challenges. Biotropica 48, 716–730 (2016).

Veldman J. W. et al. Where tree planting and forest expansion are bad for biodiversity and ecosystem services. Bioscience 65, 1011–1017 (2015).

Thomas, S., Dargusch, P., Harrison, S. & Herbohn, J. Why are there so few afforestation and reforestation clean development projects? Land Use Policy 27, 880–887 (2010).

Goetz, S. et al. Measurement and monitoring needs, capabilities and potential for addressing reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation under REDD+. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 123001 (2015).

Busch, J. et al. Comparing climate and cost impacts of reference levels for reducing emissions from deforestation. Environ. Res. Lett. 4, 044006 (2009).

Busch, J. et al. Structuring economic incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation within Indonesia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 1062–1067 (2012).

Burivalova, Z. et al. Relevance of global forest change data set to local conservation: case study of forest degradation in masoala national park, Madagascar. Biotropica 47, 267–274 (2015).

Bellot, F. et al. The high-resolution global map of 21st-century forest cover change from the University of Maryland (‘Hansen Map’) is hugely overestimating deforestation in Indonesia (Forests and Climate Change Programme, 2014).

Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (UNFCC, 2001).

Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZv 3.0) (IIASA, FAO, 2012).

FAOSTAT Database (FAO, 2014).

Naidoo, R. & Iwamura, T. Global-scale mapping of economic benefits from agricultural lands: implications for conservation priorities. Biol. Conserv. 140, 40–49 (2007).

Warusawitharana, M. The Social Discount Rate in Developing Countries (Federal Reserve, 2014); https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.0029

Lanza, A. et al. Climate Change 2001: Mitigation (eds Metz, B. et al.) Ch. 7 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2001).

Jarvis A. et al. Hole-Filled Seamless SRTM Data V4 (International Center for Tropical Agriculture, 2008).

World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision (UNDESA, 2012).

World Database on Protected Areas (World Conservation Monitoring Center, accessed 20 May 2014).

Dinerstein, E. et al. An ecoregion-based approach to protecting half the terrestrial realm. BioScience 67, 534–545 (2017).

FAOSTAT: Forestry Production and Trade: Visualize Data (FAO, 2018); http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FO/visualize

Hughes, A. C. Have Indo-Malaysian forests reached the end of the road? Biol. Conserv. 223, 129–137 (2018).

Bowman, M. S. et al. Persistence of cattle ranching in the Brazilian Amazon: a spatial analysis of the rationale for beef production. Land Use Policy 29, 558–568 (2012).

Wooldridge, J. M. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data (MIT Press, 2002).

Burgess, R., Hansen, M., Olken, B. A., Potapov, P. & Sieber, S. The political economy of deforestation in the tropics. Q. J. Econ. 127, 1707–1754 (2012).

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013–-2022 (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, FAO, 2013).

Bonner, M. T. L., Schmidt, S. & Shoo, L. P. A meta-analytical global comparison of aboveground biomass accumulation between tropical secondary forests and monoculture plantations. For. Ecol. Manag. 291, 73–80 (2013).

IPCC 2006 IPCC Revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2006).

Poorter, L. et al. Biomass resilience of Neotropical secondary forests. Nature 530, 211–214 (2016).

Mokany, K. et al. Critical analysis of root:shoot ratios in terrestrial biomes. Glob. Change Biol. 12, 84–96 (2006).

Ugalde, L. & Perez, O. Mean Annual Volume Increment of Selected Industrial Forest Plantation Species (FAO, 2001).

Schwartz, N. B., Uriarte, M., DeFries, R., Gutierrez-Velez, V. H. & Pinedo-Vasquez, M. A. Land-use dynamics influence estimates of carbon sequestration potential in tropical second-growth forest. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 074023 (2017).

Powers, J. S., Corre, M. D., Twine, T. E. & Veldkamp, E. Geographic bias of field observations of soil carbon stocks with tropical land-use changes precludes spatial extrapolation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 6318–6322 (2011).

Harmonized World Soil Database (Version 1.0) (FAO/IIASA/ISRIC/ISSCAS/JRC, 2008).

Mitsch, W. J. et al. Wetlands, carbon, and climate change. Landsc. Ecol. 28, 583–597 (2013).

Bridgham, S. D., Moore, T. R., Richardson, C. J. & Roulet, N. T. Errors in greenhouse forcing and soil carbon sequestration estimates in freshwater wetlands: a comment on Mitsch et al. (2013). Landsc. Ecol. 29, 1481–1485 (2014).

Neubauer, S. C. On the challenges of modeling the net radiative forcing of wetlands: reconsidering Mitsch et al. (2013) Landsc. Ecol. 29, 571–577 (2014).

Murdiyarso, D. et al. Opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in tropical peatlands. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 19655–19660 (2010).

Torres, A. B., Marchant, R., Lovett, J. C., Smart, J. C. R. & Tipper, R. Analysis of the carbon sequestration costs of afforestation and reforestation agroforestry practices and the use of cost curves to evaluate their potential for implementation of climate change mitigation. Ecol. Econ. 69, 469–477 (2010).

Galik, C. S., Cooley, D. M. & Baker, J. S. Analysis of the production and transaction costs of forest carbon offset projects in the USA. J. Environ. Manag. 112, 128–136 (2012).

Technical Support Document: Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866 (United States Government, 2016).

Bond, W. J. Ancient grasslands at risk. Science 351, 120–122 (2016).