Potential distribution of invasive crop pests under climate change: incorporating mitigation responses of insects into prediction models

Current Opinion in Insect Science - Tập 49 - Trang 15-21 - 2022
Gang Ma1, Chun-Sen Ma1
1Climate Change Biology Research Group, State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China

Tài liệu tham khảo

Hulme, 2017, Climate change and biological invasions: evidence, expectations, and response options, Biol Rev, 92, 1297, 10.1111/brv.12282 Robinson, 2020, Double trouble: the implications of climate change for biological invasions, NeoBiota, 62, 463, 10.3897/neobiota.62.55729 Diagne, 2021, High and rising economic costs of biological invasions worldwide, Nature, 592, 571, 10.1038/s41586-021-03405-6 Paini, 2016, Global threat to agriculture from invasive species, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 113, 7575, 10.1073/pnas.1602205113 Bellard, 2013, Will climate change promote future invasions?, Glob Change Biol, 19, 3740, 10.1111/gcb.12344 Kearney, 2009, Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species’ ranges, Ecol Lett, 12, 334, 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01277.x Lantschner, 2019, Predicting the distribution of harmful species and their natural enemies in agricultural, livestock and forestry systems: an overview, Int J Pest Manage, 65, 190, 10.1080/09670874.2018.1533664 Buckley, 2010, Can mechanism inform species’ distribution models?, Ecol Lett, 13, 1041, 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01479.x Enriquez-Urzelai, 2019, Integrating mechanistic and correlative niche models to unravel range-limiting processes in a temperate amphibian, Glob Change Biol, 25, 2633, 10.1111/gcb.14673 Briscoe, 2019, Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications, Ecol Lett, 22, 1940, 10.1111/ele.13348 Maino, 2016, Mechanistic models for predicting insect responses to climate change, Curr Opin Insect Sci, 17, 81, 10.1016/j.cois.2016.07.006 Faye, 2014, Strong discrepancies between local temperature mapping and interpolated climatic grids in tropical mountainous agricultural landscapes, PLoS One, 9, 10.1371/journal.pone.0105541 Bonebrake, 2014, From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts, Proc R Soc B, 281, 10.1098/rspb.2014.1264 Bush, 2016, Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change, Ecol Lett, 19, 1468, 10.1111/ele.12696 Barton, 2019, Spatial scale, topography and thermoregulatory behaviour interact when modelling species’ thermal niches, Ecography, 42, 376, 10.1111/ecog.03655 Potter, 2013, Microclimatic challenges in global change biology, Glob Change Biol, 19, 2932, 10.1111/gcb.12257 Woods, 2015, The roles of microclimatic diversity and of behavior in mediating the responses of ectotherms to climate change, J Therm Biol, 54, 86, 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2014.10.002 Pincebourde, 2020, There is plenty of room at the bottom: microclimates drive insect vulnerability to climate change, Curr Opin Insect Sci, 41, 63, 10.1016/j.cois.2020.07.001 Bütikofer, 2020, The problem of scale in predicting biological responses to climate, Glob Change Biol, 26, 6657, 10.1111/gcb.15358 Faye, 2017, Does heterogeneity in crop canopy microclimates matter for pests? Evidence from aerial high-resolution thermography, Agric Ecosyst Environ, 246, 124, 10.1016/j.agee.2017.05.027 Pincebourde, 2019, Narrow safety margin in the phyllosphere during thermal extremes, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 116, 5588, 10.1073/pnas.1815828116 Lembrechts, 2020, SoilTemp: a global database of near-surface temperature, Glob Change Biol, 26, 6616, 10.1111/gcb.15123 Suggitt, 2018, Extinction risk from climate change is reduced by microclimatic buffering, Nat Clim Change, 8, 713, 10.1038/s41558-018-0231-9 Ma, 2021, Survive a warming climate: insect responses to extreme high temperatures, Ann Rev Entomol, 66, 163, 10.1146/annurev-ento-041520-074454 Li, 2016, Effects of simulated microclimate near the water surface of rice paddies on growth and reproduction of Sogatella furcifera during high temperature season, Chinese J Rice Sci, 30, 210 Wang, 2019, Early detection of Zymoseptoria tritici in winter wheat by infrared thermography, Agriculture, 9, 10.3390/agriculture9070139 Whitman, 1987, Thermoregulation and daily activity patterns in a black desert grasshopper, Taeniopoda eques, Anim Behav, 35, 1814, 10.1016/S0003-3472(87)80074-X Kearney, 2017, NicheMapR – an R package for biophysical modelling: the microclimate model, Ecography, 40, 664, 10.1111/ecog.02360 De Frenne, 2019, Global buffering of temperatures under forest canopies, Nat Ecol Evol, 3, 744, 10.1038/s41559-019-0842-1 Lembrechts, 2019, Incorporating microclimate into species distribution models, Ecography, 42, 1267, 10.1111/ecog.03947 Zellweger, 2020, Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming, Science, 368, 772, 10.1126/science.aba6880 Abram, 2017, Behavioural effects of temperature on ectothermic animals: unifying thermal physiology and behavioural plasticity, Biol Rev, 92, 1859, 10.1111/brv.12312 Guo, 2020, Activity niches outperform thermal physiological limits in predicting global ant distributions, J Biogeogr, 47, 829, 10.1111/jbi.13799 Sane, 2020, Insect architecture: structural diversity and behavioral principles, Curr Opin Insect Sci, 42, 39, 10.1016/j.cois.2020.08.005 Shi, 2015, Keeping cool: enhanced optical reflection and radiative heat dissipation in Saharan silver ants, Science, 349, 298, 10.1126/science.aab3564 Ma, 2018, Behavioural thermoregulation alters microhabitat utilization and demographic rates in ectothermic invertebrates, Anim Behav, 142, 49, 10.1016/j.anbehav.2018.06.003 Benoit, 2019, Thermoprotective adaptations are critical for arthropods feeding on warm-blooded hosts, Curr Opin Insect Sci, 34, 7, 10.1016/j.cois.2019.02.003 Kearney, 2009, The potential for behavioral thermoregulation to buffer “cold-blooded” animals against climate warming, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 106, 3835, 10.1073/pnas.0808913106 Fey, 2019, Opportunities for behavioral rescue under rapid environmental change, Glob Change Biol, 25, 3110, 10.1111/gcb.14712 Tsai, 2020, Physical and behavioral adaptations to prevent overheating of the living wings of butterflies, Nat Commun, 11, 10.1038/s41467-020-14408-8 Maeno, 2021, A general model of the thermal constraints on the world’s most destructive locust, Schistocerca gregaria, Ecol Appl, 31, 10.1002/eap.2310 Gomes, 2018, Droplet bubbling evaporatively cools a blowfly, Sci Rep, 8, 10.1038/s41598-018-23670-2 Tonelli, 2018, Spittlebugs produce foam as a thermoregulatory adaptation, Sci Rep, 8, 10.1038/s41598-018-23031-z Ma, 2012, Climate warming may increase aphids’ dropping probabilities in response to high temperatures, J Insect Physiol, 58, 1456, 10.1016/j.jinsphys.2012.08.012 Bowler, 2008, Insect thermal tolerance: what is the role of ontogeny, ageing and senescence?, Biol Rev, 83, 339, 10.1111/j.1469-185X.2008.00046.x Kingsolver, 2011, Complex life cycles and the responses of insects to climate change, Integr Comp Biol, 51, 719, 10.1093/icb/icr015 Lowe, 2021, Metamorphosis in an era of increasing climate variability, Trends Ecol Evol, 36, 360, 10.1016/j.tree.2020.11.012 de Valpine, 2014, The importance of individual developmental variation in stage-structured population models, Ecol Lett, 17, 1026, 10.1111/ele.12290 Zhang, 2015, Impact of hot events at different developmental stages of a moth: the closer to adult stage, the less reproductive output, Sci Rep, 5 Zhao, 2017, Life stages of an aphid living under similar thermal conditions differ in thermal performance, J Insect Physiol, 99, 1, 10.1016/j.jinsphys.2017.03.003 Zhao, 2019, The importance of timing of heat events for predicting the dynamics of aphid pest populations, Pest Manag Sci, 75, 1866, 10.1002/ps.5344 Kearney, 2018, Summer egg diapause in a matchstick grasshopper synchronizes the life cycle and buffers thermal extremes, Integr Zool, 13, 437, 10.1111/1749-4877.12314 Wan, 2016, Invasion and management of agricultural alien insects in China, Ann Rev Entomol, 61, 77, 10.1146/annurev-ento-010715-023916 Radchuk, 2013, Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing the response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies, J Anim Ecol, 82, 275, 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2012.02029.x Dahlke, 2020, Thermal bottlenecks in the life cycle define climatevulnerability of fish, Science, 369, 65, 10.1126/science.aaz3658 Kellermann, 2019, Comparing thermal performance curves across traits: how consistent are they?, J Exp Biol, 222 Kingsolver, 2020, Ontogenetic variation in thermal sensitivity shapes insect ecological responses to climate change, Curr Opin Insect Sci, 41, 17, 10.1016/j.cois.2020.05.005 Walsh, 2019, The impact of climate change on fertility, Trends Ecol Evol, 34, 249, 10.1016/j.tree.2018.12.002 Parratt, 2021, Temperatures that sterilize males better match global species distributions than lethal temperatures, Nat Clim Chang, 11, 481, 10.1038/s41558-021-01047-0 van Heerwaarden, 2021, Male fertility thermal limits predict vulnerability to climate warming, Nat Commun, 12, 10.1038/s41467-021-22546-w Hoffmann, 2011, Climate change and evolutionary adaptation, Nature, 470, 479, 10.1038/nature09670 McGaughran, 2021, Evolutionary responses to warming, Trends Ecol Evol, 36, 591, 10.1016/j.tree.2021.02.014 Radchuk, 2019, Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient, Nat Commun, 10, 10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4 Svensson, 2020, Selection on phenotypic plasticity favors thermal canalization, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 117, 29767, 10.1073/pnas.2012454117 Logan, 2020, The evolutionary potential of an insect invader under climate change, Evolution, 74, 132, 10.1111/evo.13862 Meynard, 2017, Climate-driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods: subspecies’ niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change, Glob Change Biol, 23, 4739, 10.1111/gcb.13739 Ma, 2014, Heritability and evolutionary potential in thermal tolerance traits in the invasive Mediterranean Cryptic species of Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae), PLoS One, 9 Muñoz-Valencia, 2016, Rapid responses to a strong experimental selection for heat hardening in the invasive whitefly Bemisia tabaci MEAM 1, Entomol Exp Appl, 160, 147, 10.1111/eea.12466 Mesas, 2021, Experimental evolution on heat tolerance and thermal performance curves under contrasting thermal selection in Drosophila subobscura, J Evol Biol, 34, 767, 10.1111/jeb.13777 Kingsolver, 2017, Quantifying thermal extremes and biological variation to predict evolutionary responses to changing climate, Philos Trans R Soc B, 372, 10.1098/rstb.2016.0147 Zhu, 2021, Extreme climate shifts pest dominance hierarchy through thermal evolution and transgenerational plasticity, Funct Ecol, 35, 1524, 10.1111/1365-2435.13774 Szűcs, 2017, Rapid adaptive evolution in novel environments acts as an architect of population range expansion, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 114, 13501, 10.1073/pnas.1712934114 Diamond, 2018, Contemporary climate-driven range shifts: putting evolution back on the table, Funct Ecol, 32, 1652, 10.1111/1365-2435.13095 Kellermann, 2019, Terrestrial insects and climate change: adaptive responses in key traits, Physiol Entomol, 44, 99, 10.1111/phen.12282 Sherpa, 2021, The evolutionary dynamics of biological invasions: a multi-approach perspective, Evol Appl, 14, 1463, 10.1111/eva.13215 Peterson, 2019, Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species’ distribution and abundance under climate change, Glob Change Biol, 25, 775, 10.1111/gcb.14562 Hoffmann, 2017, Rapid adaptation of invertebrate pests to climatic stress?, Curr Opin Insect Sci, 21, 7, 10.1016/j.cois.2017.04.009 Waldvogel, 2020, Evolutionary genomics can improve prediction of species’ responses to climate change, Evol Lett, 4, 4, 10.1002/evl3.154 Maclean, 2019, Microclima: an R package for modelling meso- and microclimate, Methods Ecol Evol, 10, 280, 10.1111/2041-210X.13093 Maclean, 2021, Microclimc: a mechanistic model of above, below and within-canopy microclimate, Ecol Model, 451, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109567 Levy, 2016, A dynamically downscaled projection of past and future microclimates, Ecology, 97, 10.1002/ecy.1444 Kearney, 2020, A method for computing hourly, historical, terrain-corrected microclimate anywhere on earth, Methods Ecol Evol, 11, 38, 10.1111/2041-210X.13330 Terblanche, 2020, Validating measurements of acclimation for climate change adaptation, Curr Opin Insect Sci, 41, 7, 10.1016/j.cois.2020.04.005 Gilchrist, 2008, Clinal patterns of desiccation and starvation resistance in ancestral and invading populations of Drosophila subobscura, Evol Appl, 1, 513, 10.1111/j.1752-4571.2008.00040.x Paquette, 2021, Biotic interactions are more often important at species’ warm versus cool range edges, Ecol Lett, 1 Grünig, 2020, Crop and forest pest metawebs shift towards increased linkage and suitability overlap under climate change, Commun Biol, 3, 10.1038/s42003-020-0962-9