Population Decline, Labor Force Stability, and the Future of the Japanese Economy

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 26 Số 2 - Trang 207-227 - 2010
Clark, Robert L.1, Ogawa, Naohiro2, Kondo, Makoto3, Matsukura, Rikiya2
1College of Management, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, USA
2Nihon University Population Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan
3Kobe Gakuin University, Kobe, Japan

Tóm tắt

Demographic trends in Japan are producing a declining population that is rapidly growing older. With a total fertility rate of around 1.3 children per woman, the population has already begun to decline. This article examines the impact of these demographic trends on the level of employment and economic growth that Japan is projected to experience over the next 20 years. We explore the effect of changes in labor market policies on age-specific employment rates and assess whether innovative policies can moderate the decline in employment. Public policies encouraging increased employment of women and persons aged 60 and older could partially offset the anticipated decline in employment. The importance of the Japanese experience for European policy makers is discussed.

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