Polarization and the Decline of the American Floating Voter

American Journal of Political Science - Tập 61 Số 2 - Trang 365-381 - 2017
Corwin D. Smidt1
1Michigan State University

Tóm tắt

AbstractThe observed rate of Americans voting for a different party across successive presidential elections has never been lower. This trend is largely explained by the clarity of party differences reducing indecision and ambivalence and increasing reliability in presidential voting. American National Election Studies (ANES) Times Series study data show that recent independent, less engaged voters perceive candidate differences as clearly as partisan, engaged voters of past elections and with declining rates of ambivalence, being undecided, and floating. Analysis of ANES inter‐election panel studies shows the decline in switching is present among nonvoters too, as pure independents are as reliable in their party support as strong partisans of prior eras. These findings show parties benefit from the behavioral response of all Americans to polarization. By providing an ideological anchor to candidate evaluations, polarization produces a reliable base of party support that is less responsive to short‐term forces.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Abramowitz Alan I., 2010, The Dissappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization, and American Democracy

10.4135/9781483330846

10.1515/9780691220192

10.1093/oxfordjournals.pan.a029802

10.2307/2669291

10.1017/S0003055405051580

Berelson Bernard R., 1954, Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign

10.3998/mpub.22995

10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00606.x

10.1023/A:1022510927796

10.1086/267129

10.1017/S0003055412000500

Fiorina Morris P., 2006, Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America

10.1017/S002238160808050X

10.1007/s11109-010-9136-7

10.2307/2135282

10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00602.x

10.1017/S0003055401003045

10.1515/9781400831593

Honaker James, 2008, Amelia II: A Program for Missing Data, Journal of Statistical Software, 45, 1

10.4324/9780203852279

10.1111/j.1467-9221.2008.00659.x

10.1515/9781400855650

10.4159/harvard.9780674497764

10.1017/S0003055401000235

10.2307/2669332

10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199772759.001.0001

10.2307/3088434

10.1007/s11109-009-9094-0

10.1111/ajps.12089

Mayer William G., 2008, The Swing Voter in American Politics, 1

McCarty Nolan, 2006, Polarized America

10.1111/j.1467-9221.2011.00830.x

10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00541.x

10.1017/CBO9781139878425

10.1111/j.1467-9221.2005.00450.x

10.1111/ajps.12001

Thompson Megan M., 1995, Attitude Strength: Antecedents and Consequences, 361

10.1111/j.1467-9221.2011.00841.x

10.1007/s11109-012-9196-y

10.1111/j.1540-6237.2012.00940.x

10.1017/CBO9780511818691

10.1515/9780691188386-008

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

American Journal of Political Science

Tập 61 Số 2

365-381

Thông tin tác giả