Sự thích nghi của mầm bệnh với nhiệt độ trong điều kiện tử vong phụ thuộc vào mật độ ký chủ và biến đổi khí hậu

Altizer S, Ostfeld RS, Johnson PTJ, Kutz S, Harvell CD (2013) Climate change and infectious diseases: from evidence to a predictive framework. Science 341(6145):514–519 Anderson RM, May RM (1991) Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control, vol 28. Oxford University Press, Oxford Andreasen V, Pugliese A (1995) Pathogen coexistence induced by density dependent host mortality. J Theor Biol 177:159–165 Angilletta MJ (2009) Thermal adaptation: a theoretical and empirical synthesis. Oxford University Press, Oxford Beck K (1984) Coevolution: mathematical analysis of host-parasite interactions. J Math Biol 19(1):63–77 Berglund J, Eitrem R, Ornstein K, Lindberg A, Ringner A, Elmrud H (1995) An epidemiologic study of Lyme disease in southern sweden. N Engl J Med 333(20):1319–1324 Bjöersdorff A, Brouqui P, Eliasson I, Massung RF, Wittesjö B, Berglund J (1999) Serological evidence of Ehrlichia infection in Swedish Lyme borreliosis patients. Scand J Infect Dis 31(1):51–55 Bødker R, Akida J, Shayo D, Kisinza W, Msangeni HA, Pedersen EM (2003) Relationship between altitude and intensity of malaria transmission in the Usambara Mountains, Tanzania. J Med Entomol 40(5):706–717 Bouma MJ, van der Kaay HJ (1995) Epidemic malaria in India’s Thar Desert. Lancet 346(8984):1232–1233 Bouma MJ, van der Kaay HJ (1996) The el niño southern oscillation and the historic malaria epidemics on the Indian subcontinent and Sri Lanka: an early warning system for future epidemics? Trop Med Int Health 1(1):86–96 Bradshaw WE, Holzapfel CM (2001) Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci 98(25):14509–14511 Burdon J, Elmqvist T (1996) Selective sieves in the epidemiology of Melampsora lini. Plant Pathol 45(5):933–943 Cróquer A, Weil E (2009) Spatial variability in distribution and prevalence of caribbean scleractinian coral and octocoral diseases–II genera-level analysis. Dis Aquat Organ 83(3):209 Dieckmann U (2002) Adaptive dynamics of pathogen-host interactions. In: Dieckmann U, Metz JAJ, Sabelis MW, Sigmund K (eds) Adaptive dynamics of infectious diseases: in pursuit of virulence management, chapter 4. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 39–59 Dobson A (2009) Climate variability, global change, immunity, and the dynamics of infectious diseases. Ecology 90(4):920–927 Dobson A, Kutz S, Pascual M, Winfree R (2003) Pathogens and parasites in a changing climate. In: Hannah LJ, Thomas EL (eds) Climate change and biodiversity: synergistic impacts, vol 4, chapter 4. Center for Applied Biodiversity Science at Conservation International, pp 33–38 Elliot SL, Blanford S, Thomas MB (2002) Host-pathogen interactions in a varying environment: temperature, behavioural fever and fitness. Proc R Soc Lond Ser B 269(1500):1599–1607 Epstein P (2000) Is global warming harmful to health? Sci Am 283(2):50–57 Geritz SAH, van der Meijden E, Metz JAJ (1999) Evolutionary dynamics of seed size and seedling competitive ability. Theor Popul Biol 55(3):324–343 Gilchrist GW (1995) Specialist and generalists in changing environments. I. Fitness landscape of thermal sensitivity. Am Nat 146:252–270 Harvell CD, Mitchell CE, Ward JR, Altizer S, Dobson AP, Ostfeld RS et al (2002) Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota. Science 296(5576):2158–2162 Harvell D, Altizer S, Cattadori IM, Harrington L, Weil E (2009) Climate change and wildlife diseases: when does the host matter the most? Ecology 90(4):912–920 Huey RB, Hertz PE (1984) Is a jack of all temperatures a master of none? Evolution 38:441–444 Johnson DW, Boucias DB, Barfield CS, Allen GE (1982) A temperature-dependent developmental model for a nucleopolyhedrosis virus of the velvetbean caterpillar, Anticarsia gemmatalis (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). J Invertebr Pathol 40(2):292–298 Lafferty KD (2009) The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases. Ecology 90(4):888–900 Lindgren E, Gustafson R (2001) Tick-borne encephalitis in Sweden and climate change. Lancet 358(9275):16–18 Lindsay LR, Barker IK, Surgeoner GA, McEwen SA, Gillespie TJ, Robinson JT (1995) Survival and development of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) under various climatic conditions in Ontario, Canada. J Med Entomol 32(2):143–152 McMichael A, Bouma M (2000) Global change, invasive species and human health. In: Mooney H, Hobbs RJ (eds) The impact of global change on invasive species, chapter 9. Island Press, pp 191–210 Metz JAJ, Nisbet RM, Geritz SAH (1992) How should we define fitness for general ecological scenarios? Trends Ecol Evol 7(6):198–202 Molnár PK, Kutz SJ, Hoar BM, Dobson AP (2013) Metabolic approaches to understanding climate change impacts on seasonal host-macroparasite dynamics. Ecol Lett 16(1):9–21 Morand S, Owers KA, Waret-Szkuta A, McIntyre KM, Baylis M (2013) Climate variability and outbreaks of infectious diseases in Europe. Sci Rep 3:1774 Mullens BA, Rodriguez JL, Meyer JA (1987) An epizootiological study of Entomophthora muscae in muscoid fly populations on southern California poultry facilities, with emphasis on Musca domestica. Hilgardia 55:1–41 Pascual M, Bouma MJ (2009) Do rising temperatures matter? Ecology 90(4):906–912 Peng R (2008) A method of visualizing multivariate time series data. J Stat Softw. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v025.c01 Pugliese A (2002) On the evolutionary coexistence of parasite strains. Math Biosci 177178:355–375 Randolph SE (2009) Perspectives on climate change impacts on infectious diseases. Ecology 90(4):927–931 Svennungsen TO, Kisdi É (2009) Evolutionary branching of virulence in a single-infection model. J Theor Biol 257(3):408–418 Thomas MB, Blanford S (2003) Thermal biology in insect-parasite interactions. Trends Ecol Evol 18(7):344–350 Waikhom P, Jain R, Tegar S (2016) Sensitivity and stability analysis of a delayed stochastic epidemic model with temperature gradients. Model Earth Syst Environ 2(1):49