Past and future of backcasting: The shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological framework
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Quist, 2002, Stakeholder involvement and alliances for sustainable shopping, cooking and eating, 273
Rotmans, 2001, More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policy, Foresight, 3, 15, 10.1108/14636680110803003
Weaver, 2000
Quist, 2001, Strategies towards sustainable households using stakeholder workshops and scenarios, International Journal of Sustainable Development, 4, 75, 10.1504/IJSD.2001.001547
Green, 2002, Towards sustainable households: a methodology for developing sustainable technological and social innovations, Futures, 34, 381, 10.1016/S0016-3287(01)00066-0
Lovins, 1977
Robinson, 1982, Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis, Energy Policy, 10, 337−344, 10.1016/0301-4215(82)90048-9
Anderson, 2001, Reconciling the electricity industry with sustainable development: backcasting a strategic alternative, Futures, 33, 607, 10.1016/S0016-3287(01)00004-0
Lönnroth, 1980, Sweden beyond oil: nuclear commitments and solar options, Science, 208, 557, 10.1126/science.208.4444.557
Johansson, 1980
Mulder, 1998
Robinson, 1990, Futures under glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict, Futures, 22, 820, 10.1016/0016-3287(90)90018-D
Robinson, 1988, Unlearning and backcasting, rethinking some of the questions we ask about the future, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 33, 325, 10.1016/0040-1625(88)90029-7
Holmberg, 1998, Backcasting: a natural step in operationalising sustainable development, Greener Management International, 23, 30
Banister, 2000, Transport Policy Scenarios for the EU in 2020: images of the future, Innovation, 13, 27
Höjer, 2000, Determinism and backcasting in future studies, Futures, 32, 613, 10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00012-4
Holmberg, 2000, Backcasting: a framework for strategic planning, International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 7, 291, 10.1080/13504500009470049
Dreborg, 1999, Scenarios for the Baltic Sea region: a vision of sustainability, International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 6, 34, 10.1080/13504509.1999.9728470
Schot, 1996, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 54, 251, 10.1016/S0040-1625(96)00180-1
Nattras, 1999
Marchau, 2003, Innovative methodologies for exploring the future of automated vehicle guidance, Journal of Forecasting, 22, 257, 10.1002/for.853
Geurs, 2000, Backcasting as a tool to develop a sustainable transport scenario assuming emission reductions of 80–90%, Innovation, 13, 47
Geurs, 2004, Backcasting as a tool for sustainable transport policy making: the environmentally sustainable transport study in the Netherlands, EJTIR, 4, 47
Banister, 2000
Vergragt, 1993, Sustainable technological development: the making of a long-term oriented technology programme, Project Appraisal, 8, 134, 10.1080/02688867.1993.9726902
Vergragt, 1998, Back-casting: an example of sustainable washing, 171
W. Aarts, Een handreiking voor duurzame technologisch ontwikkeling (An orientation on sustainable technology development), DTO-KOV report 3, STD-office, Delft, 2000.
Ph. Vergragt, Strategies towards the Sustainable Household, Final Report, SusHouse project, Delft University of Technology, 2000.
J. Quist, C. Pacchi, M. van der Wel, Workshop organisation and stakeholder management, Final Report, SusHouse Project, TU Delft/Avanzi, Milano, 2000.
Isaksen, 2000
Vergragt, 2005, Back-casting for environmental sustainability: from STD and SusHouse towards implementation, 301
Grin, 2004, Practices for reflexive design: lessons from a Dutch programme on sustainable agriculture, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 1, 126, 10.1504/IJFIP.2004.004618
Partidario, 2002, Planning of strategic innovation aimed at environmental sustainability: actor-networks, scenario acceptance and backcasting analysis within a polymeric coating chain, Futures, 34, 841
P.J. Partidario, “What-If”, From Path Dependency to Path Creation in a Coatings Chain: a Methodology for Strategies Towards Sustainable Innovation, Ph.D. thesis, Delft University of Technology, 2002.
van de Kerkhof, 2003, Shaping diversity in participatory foresight studies: experiences with interactive backcasting on long-term climate policy in the Netherlands, Greener Management International, 37, 85
van de Kerkhof, 2004
Jansen, 2003, The challenge of sustainable development, Journal of Cleaner Production, 11, 231, 10.1016/S0959-6526(02)00073-2
Robinson, 2003, Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning, Futures, 35, 839, 10.1016/S0016-3287(03)00039-9
Tansey, 2002, The future is not what it used to be: participatory integrated assessment in the Georgia Basin, Global Environmental Change, 12, 97, 10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00011-0
A. Carlsson-Kanyama, K.H. Dreborg, R. Engstrom, G. Henriksson, Possibilities for long-term changes of city life: experiences of backcasting with stakeholders, Fms-report 178, Environmental Strategies Research Group, Stockholm, April 2003.
H. Keune, L. Goorden, A future for nuclear power in Belgium?, paper ENER Forum 5: Technological, market reform and climate policies, Bucharest, Romania, 16–17 October.
I. Mayer, Debating Technologies: A Methodological Contribution to the Design and Evaluation of Participatory Policy Analysis, Ph.D. Thesis Tilburg University, 1997.
de Bruijn, 1998
van den Ende, 1998, Traditional and modern technology assessment: toward a toolkit, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 58, 5, 10.1016/S0040-1625(97)00052-8
Grin, 2000
J. Quist, P. Vergragt, W. Thissen, The impact of backcasting: what is the relevance for sustainable system innovations and transition management? in: S van den Burg, G Spaargaren, H Waaijers (Eds.), Proceedings SWOME/GaMON Market Day, 2005, pp. 115-120.
Brown, 2003, Learning for sustainability transition through bounded social-technical experiments in personal mobility, Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, 15, 291, 10.1080/09537320310001601496
Grin, 1997
Vergragt, 1996, Sustainable technology development: the mobile hydrogen fuel cell, Business Strategy and the Environment, 5, 168, 10.1002/(SICI)1099-0836(199609)5:3<168::AID-BSE63>3.0.CO;2-M
J. Quist, O. de Kuijer, A. de Haan, H. Linsen, H. Hermans, I. Larsen, Restructuring meat consumption: Novel Protein Foods in 2035, paper 5th Greening of Industry Network Conference, Heidelberg, November 24–27, 1996.
G. Fonk, Een constructieve rol van de consument in technologieontwikkeling (A Constructive Contribution of Consumers in Technology Development), Ph.D. thesis Un of Twente, 1994.
A. Loeber, Practical Wisdom in the Risk Society: Methods and Practice of Interpretive Analysis on Questions of Sustainable Development, Ph.D. thesis, University of Amsterdam, 2004.
H. Aiking, Green protein foods: a continental approach to societal transition? Paper presented at the 12th GIN Conference Partnerships for Sustainable Development, www.greeningofindustry.org, 7–10 November, Honkong, 2004.
J. Quist, Towards sustainable shopping, cooking and eating in the Netherlands, Final Report, SusHouse Project, Delft University of Technology, 2000.
E. Manzini, F. Jégou, The construction of design orienting scenarios, Final Report, SusHouse project, Politecnico di Milano, Dept of Industrial Design, 2000.
Young, 2001, Exploring sustainable futures through design orienting scenarios: the case of shopping, cooking and eating, Journal of Sustainable Product Design, 1, 117, 10.1023/A:1014401410727
J. Quist, S. Silvester, Duurzame horeca door gedragsverandering, nieuwe technologie en dienstinnnovatie (Towards sustainable eating out through behavioural changes, new technology and service innovation), NIDO programme proposal, 2001.
J. Quist, S. Silvester, H. van der Horst, Towards sustainable eating out through innovation, behavioural changes and system changes, in: Proceedings (cd-rom) TSPD8 conference Creating Sustainable Products, Services and Product-service systems, Stockholm, 27–28 October, 2003.
A.F. van Gaasbeek, M.J.G. Meeusen-van Onna, G. Wiersma, K.J. Kamminga, H.C. Moll, Eindrapport Consument, Voeding en Milieu (Final report on Consumers, Nutrition and the Environment), STD office, Delft/NRLO, The Hague, 2000.
Street, 1997, Scenario workshops: a participatory approach to sustainable urban living?, Futures, 29, 139, 10.1016/S0016-3287(96)00073-0
Raskin, 2002
Hoogma, 2002