Nội dung được dịch bởi AI, chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo
Xác định tham số và Đánh giá Mô hình Mô phỏng Đơn giản (SSM-iCrop2) cho Sự phát triển và Năng suất Khoai tây (Solanum tuberosum L.) tại Iran
Tóm tắt
Các mô hình cây trồng có thể được sử dụng để ước đoán năng suất, yêu cầu nước và nhu cầu dinh dưỡng của thực vật trong các điều kiện khác nhau. Nghiên cứu này xem xét hiệu suất của mô hình SSM-iCrop2 trong việc dự đoán năng suất củ, giai đoạn phát sinh và yêu cầu nước của khoai tây (Solanum tuberosum L.) dưới những biến đổi khí hậu tại Iran. Việc mô phỏng sự phát triển của khoai tây, năng suất củ và yêu cầu nước cho các giống thường được trồng ở Iran (Agria, Marfona, Sante và Arinda) được thực hiện bằng cách sử dụng mô hình SSM-iCrop2. Dữ liệu từ các thí nghiệm thực địa khác nhau ở những tỉnh sản xuất khoai tây chính được sử dụng để xác định tham số và đánh giá. Kết quả xác định tham số của mô hình SSM-iCrop2 cho thấy rằng hai nhóm trưởng thành (trưởng thành sớm và muộn) được xác định với các đơn vị nhiệt là 1100 và 1500 °C ngày−1 tương ứng, trong những tỉnh sản xuất khoai tây quan trọng. Mô hình này đã được đánh giá dựa trên dữ liệu thực nghiệm độc lập mà không được sử dụng cho bước xác định tham số. Năng suất củ quan sát được và yêu cầu nước dao động từ 2013 đến 5902 g m−2 và từ 3523 đến 8547 m3 ha−1 với mức trung bình là 3542 g m−2 và 6178 m3 ha−1, tương ứng. Năng suất củ và yêu cầu nước mô phỏng thay đổi trong khoảng từ 2489 đến 5881 g m−2 và từ 2200 đến 7149 m3 ha−1 với mức trung bình là 3607 g m−2 và 5901 m3 ha−1, tương ứng. Ngoài ra, kết quả đánh giá cho thấy hệ số tương quan (r), sai số vuông căn trung bình (RMSE) và hệ số biến thiên (CV) cho năng suất củ và yêu cầu nước mô phỏng so với quan sát là 0.80, 543 g m−2 và 14% và 0.85, 944 m3 ha−1 và 15%, tương ứng. Do đó, mô hình có thể được sử dụng để ước đoán năng suất củ tiềm năng, khoảng chênh lệch năng suất và tác động của biến đổi khí hậu.
Từ khóa
#mô hình cây trồng #khoai tây #SSM-iCrop2 #dự đoán năng suất #yêu cầu nước #biến đổi khí hậuTài liệu tham khảo
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