Pandemic pushes polarisation: the Corona crisis and macroeconomic divergence in the Eurozone
Tóm tắt
This paper discusses the uneven consequences of the macroeconomic fallout from the Coronavirus and related economic policy responses against the background of an analysis of longer-term macroeconomic divergence in the Eurozone. We show that the macroeconomic impact of the Corona crisis is estimated to be more severe in Southern Eurozone countries than in Northern Eurozone countries, which further reinforces the tendency of an increasing economic polarisation. This polarisation process can be traced back to existing differences in production structures and uneven vulnerabilities of the underlying growth models. As a consequence, any policy response to the Corona crisis that does not take the deeper problems of structural polarisation into account will suffer from limited impact in the medium to long run.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Anderson, J., Bergamini, E., Brekelmans, S., Cameron, A., Darvas, Z., Dominguez Jimenez, M., & Midoes, C. (2020). The fiscal response to the economic fallout from the coronavirus, Bruegel dataset (last update on May 6th 2020). https://www.bruegel.org/publications/datasets/covid-national-dataset/ (last access on May 14th 2020).
Botta, A. (2014). Structural asymmetries at the roots of the Eurozone crisis: What’s new for industrial policy in the EU? PSL Quarterly Review, 67(269), 169–216.
Celi, G., Ginzburg, A., Guarascio, D., & Simonazzi, A. (2018). Crisis in the European Monetary Union. A core-periphery perspective. London: Routledge.
Dosi, G., Grazzi, M., & Moschella, D. (2015). Technology and costs in international competitiveness: From countries and sectors to firms. Research Policy, 44, 1795–1814.
European Commission. (2020a). Identifying Europe’s recovery needs, Accompanying the document COM (2020) 456 final.
European Commission. (2020b). Europe’s moment: Repair and prepare for the Next Generation, SWD (2020): 98 final.
Gräbner, C., Heimberger, P., Kapeller, J., & Schütz, B. (2019). Structural change in times of increasing openness: Assessing path dependency in European integration. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, forthcoming,. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-019-00639-6.
Gräbner, C., Heimberger, P., Kapeller, J., & Schütz, B. (2020a). Replication data for: Pandemic pushes polarisation: The Corona crisis and macroeconomic divergence in the Eurozone. Harvard Dataverse. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/G2VMKH.
Gräbner, C., Heimberger, P., Kapeller, J., & Schütz, B. (2020). Is the Eurozone disintegrating? Macroeconomic divergence, structural polarisation, trade and fragility. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 44(3), 647–669.
Heimberger, P., & Kapeller, J. (2017). The performativity of potential output: Pro-cyclicality and path dependency in coordinating European fiscal policies. Review of International Political Economy, 24(5), 904–928.
Hidalgo, C., & Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(26), 10570–10575.
International Monetary Fund. (2020). The Great Lockdown, World Economic Outlook, April 2020.
Kapeller, J., Gräbner, C., & Heimberger, P. (2019). Economic polarisation in Europe: Causes and policy options, wiiw Research Report No. 440.
Lane, P. (2020). Pandemic central banking: the monetary stance, market stabilisation and liquidity, Remarks by Philip R. Lane, member of the Executive Board of the ECB (May 19th 2020). https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp200519~e5203d3520.en.html (last download on May 22nd 2020).
Odendahl, C., & Springford, J. (2020). Three ways COVID-19 will cause economic divergence in Europe, CER Policy Paper No. 2020.
Prante, F., Bramucci, A., & Truger, A. (2020). Decades of tight fiscal policy have left the health care system in Italy ill-prepared to fight the COVID-19 outbreak. Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, 55(3), 147–152.
Simonazzi, A. (2013). Economic relations between Germany and southern Europe. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 37(3), 653–675.
Storm, S., & Naastepad, C. (2015). Europe’s hunger games: income distribution, cost competitiveness and crisis. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 39(3), 959–986.
Storm, S., & Naastepad, C. (2016). Myths, Mix-ups and Mishandlings: Understanding the Eurozone Crisis. International Journal of Political Economy, 45(1), 46–71.
Straca, L. (2013). The rise of China and India: Blessing or curse for the advanced countries?. ECB Working Paper No. 1620.
The Atlas of Economic Complexity, Center for International Development at Harvard University. https://www.atlas.cid.harvard.edu (accessed May 2019).
Tooze, A. (2020). The Death of the Central Bank Myth, Foreign Policy (March 13th 2020). https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/13/european-central-bank-myth-monetary-policy-german-court-ruling/ (last download on May 25th 2020).
Wildauer, R., Leith, S., Kapeller, J. (2020). How to boost the European Green Deal's scale and ambition, FEPS Policy Paper (June 2020). Available online: https://www.feps-europe.eu/resources/publications/738-how-to-boost-the-european-green-deal-s-scale-and-ambition.html.