Paleoflood hydrology on the lower Green River, upper Colorado River Basin, USA: An example of a naturalist approach to flood-risk analysis

Aitken, 1998, 267 Aitken, 1990, Moisture correction for annual gamma dose, Ancient TL, 8, 6 Baker, 1983, Paleohydrologic analysis of Holocene flood slack-water sediments, Internat. Assoc. Sedimentol. Special Publ., 6, 229 Baker, 1975, 22 Baker, 1987, Paleoflood hydrology and extraordinary flood events, J. Hydrol., 10.1016/0022-1694(87)90145-4 Baker, 1996, Discovering the future in the past: Palaeohydrology and geomorphological change, Global Continental Changes: The Context of Palaeohydrology: The Geological Society of London, Special Publication No. 115, 73, 10.1144/GSL.SP.1996.115.01.07 Baker, 1998, Paleohydrology and the hydrological sciences, 1 Baker, 2008, Paleoflood hydrology: origin, progress, prospects, Geomorphology, 101, 1, 10.1016/j.geomorph.2008.05.016 Baker, 2017, Debates-hypothesis testing in hydrology: versus pursuing uberty, Water Resour. Res., 53, 1770, 10.1002/2016WR020078 Baker, 1979, Long-term flood frequency analysis using geological data, Int. Assoc. Hydrol. Sci., 128, 3 Baker, 1983, Palaeohydrologic analysis of Holocene flood slack-water sediments, 6, 229 Baker, 2002, The scientific and societal value of paleoflood hydrology, 1 Benito, 2015, Recurring flood distribution patterns related to short-term Holocene climatic variability, Sci. Rep., 5, 1, 10.1038/srep16398 Benito, 2013, Quantitative paleoflood hydrology, 459 Benito, 2003, Palaeoflood record of the Tagus River (Central Spain) during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, Quat. Sci. Rev., 22, 1737, 10.1016/S0277-3791(03)00133-1 Blinn, 2005, Colorado River Basin, 482 Brown, 2000, 10 000 yr record of extreme hydrologic events, Geology, 28, 335, 10.1130/0091-7613(2000)28<335:YROEHE>2.0.CO;2 Cashion, W.B., 1967. Geology and fuel resources, of the Green River Formation southeastern Uinta basin Utah and Colorado. U.S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Pap. 548 48. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. Chow, 1988 Cohn, 1997, An algorithm for computing moments-based flood quantile estimates when historical flood information is available, Water Resour. Res., 33, 2089, 10.1029/97WR01640 Cohn, 2001, Confidence intervals for Expected Moments Algorithm flood quantile estimates, Water Resour. Res., 37, 1695, 10.1029/2001WR900016 Cohn, 2013, A generalized Grubbs-Beck test statistic for detecting multiple potentially influential low outliers in flood series, Water Resour. Res., 49, 5047, 10.1002/wrcr.20392 Costa, 1978, Holocene stratigraphy in flood frequency analysis, Water Resour. Res., 14, 626, 10.1029/WR014i004p00626 Costa, 1978, Holocene stratigraphy in flood-frequency research, Water Resour. Res., 14, 626, 10.1029/WR014i004p00626 Cudworth, 1989 Douglas, 2003, Probable maximum precipitation estimation using multifractals: application in the eastern United States, J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1012, 10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1012:PMPEUM>2.0.CO;2 Ely, 1997, Response of extreme floods in the southwestern United States to climatic variations in the late Holocene, Geomorphology, 19, 175, 10.1016/S0169-555X(97)00014-7 Ely, 1985, Reconstructing paleoflood hydrology with slackwater deposits: Verde River, Arizona, Phys. Geogr., 6, 103, 10.1080/02723646.1985.10642266 Ely, 1993, A 5000-year record of extreme floods and climate change in the Southwestern United States, Science, 262, 410, 10.1126/science.262.5132.410 England, 2003, Comparisons of two moments-based estimators that utilize historical and paleoflood data for the log Pearson type III distribution, Water Resour. Res., 39, 1243, 10.1029/2002WR001791 England, 2010, Paleohydrologic bounds and extreme flood frequency of the Upper Arkansas River, Colorado, USA, Geomorphology, 124, 1, 10.1016/j.geomorph.2010.07.021 England, 2014, Physically-based extreme flood frequency analysis using stochastic storm transposition and paleoflood data on large watersheds, J. Hydrol., 510, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.021 England, J.F., Jr., Cohn, T.A., Faber, B.A., Stedinger, J.R., Thomas, W.O., Jr., Veilleux, A.G., Kiang, J.E., and Mason, R.R., Jr., 2018, Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency—Bulletin 17C: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, book4, chap. B5, p. 148. Enzel, 1993, Paleoflood evidence for a natural upper bound to flood magnitudes in the Colorado River Basin, Water Resour. Res., 29, 2287, 10.1029/93WR00411 Enzel, 1994, Paleofloods and a dam-failure flood on the Virgin River, Utah and Arizona, J. Hydrol., 153, 291, 10.1016/0022-1694(94)90196-1 Francés, 2001, Incorporating non-systematic information to flood frequency analysis using the maximum likelihood estimation method, 89 Fuller, 1987 Fuller, 1914, Flood flows, Trans. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., LXXVI, I, 564, 10.1061/taceat.0002552 Greenbaum, 2006, T hydrology and paleohydrology of the Dead Sea tributaries, 63 Greenbaum, 2000, The paleoflood record a hyperarid catchment, Nahal Zin, Negev Desert, Israel, Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, 25, 951, 10.1002/1096-9837(200008)25:9<951::AID-ESP110>3.0.CO;2-8 Greenbaum, 2014, A 2000 year natural record of magnitudes and frequencies for the largest Upper Colorado River floods near Moab, Utah, Water Resour. Res., 50, 1, 10.1002/2013WR014835 Guérin, G., Mercier, N., Adamiec, G., 2011. Dose-rate conversion factors: update: Ancient TL 29, 5–8. Harden, 2010, Holocene flood histories in south-western USA, Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, 35, 707 Hirschboeck, 1988, Flood hydroclimatology, 27 House, P.K., Webb, R.H., Baker, V.R., Levish, D. (Eds.), 2002. Ancient Floods, Modern Hazards: Principles and Applications of Paleoflood Hydrology. Water Science and Application, vol. 5. American Geophysical Union, p. 385. Huang, 2010, Extraordinary Floods of 4100–4000 a BP recorded at the Late Neolithic Ruins in the Jinghe River Gorges, Middle Reach of the Yellow River, China, Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 289, 1, 10.1016/j.palaeo.2010.02.003 Huang, 2007, Impact of monsoonal climatic change on Holocene overbank flooding along Sushui River, middle reach of the Yellow River, China, Quart. Sci. Rev., 26, 2247, 10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.06.006 Hydrology Committee, 1977 IACWD, 1982. Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency, Bulletin 17-B. Technical report, Interagency Committee on Water Data, Hydrology Subcommittee. Jakob, D., Smalley, R., Meighen, et al., 2009. Climate change and probable maximum precipitation. Melbourne: Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government, Hydrometeorological Advisory Service, Water Division. Jarrett, 1990, Paleohydrologic techniques used to define the spatial occurrence of floods, Geomorphology, 3, 181, 10.1016/0169-555X(90)90044-Q Jones, 2001, Late Holocene slackwater deposits on the Nakagawa River, Tochigi Prefecture, Japan, Geomorphology, 39, 39, 10.1016/S0169-555X(01)00050-2 Kale, 1997, A 2000-year palaeoflood record from Sakarghat on Narmada, central India, J. Geol. Soc. India, 50, 283 Kenney, 2008, Methods for Estimating Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Flows for Natural Streams in Utah, U.S. Geol. Surv. Sci. Investig. Rep., 2007–5158, 28 Kidson, 2005, Reconstructing the ca. 100-year flood in Northern Thailand, Geomorphology, 70, 279, 10.1016/j.geomorph.2005.02.009 Kiseiel, 1969, Time series analysis of hydrologic data, Adv. Hydrosci., 5, 1, 10.1016/B978-1-4831-9936-8.50007-6 Klemeš, 1987, Hydrological and engineering relevance of flood frequency analysis, 1 Klemeš, 2000, Tall tales about tails of hydrological distributions, I. J. Hydrol. Eng., 5, 227, 10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2000)5:3(227) Klemeš, 1994, Statistics and probability: Wrong remedies for a confused hydrologic modeler, 345 Knox, 1985, Responses of floods to Holocene climatic change in the upper Mississippi Valley, Quart. Res., 23, 287, 10.1016/0033-5894(85)90036-5 Knox, 1993, Large increases in flood magnitude in response to modest changes in climate, Nature, 361, 430, 10.1038/361430a0 Knox, 2000, Sensitivity of modern and Holocene floods to climate change, Quat. Sci. Rev., 19, 439, 10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00074-8 Kochel, 1988, Paleoflood analysis using slackwater deposits, 357 Kochel, 1982, Paleohydrology of southwestern Texas, Water Resour. Res., 18, 1165, 10.1029/WR018i004p01165 Kunkel, 2013, Probable maximum precipitation and climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1402, 10.1002/grl.50334 Lai, 2010, Two-dimensional depth-averaged flow modeling with an unstructured hybrid mesh, J. Hydraul. Eng., 136, 12, 10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0000134 Lam, 2017, Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information, Water Resour. Res., 53, 2312, 10.1002/2016WR019959 Lamontagne, 2013, Robust national flood frequency guidelines: What is an outlier? in Showcasing the future, ASCE, 2454 Lamontagne, 2016, Robust flood frequency analysis: Performance of EMA with multiple Grubbs-Beck outlier tests, Water Resour. Res., 52, 3068, 10.1002/2015WR018093 Liu, 2014, Extraordinary hydro-climatic events during 1800–1600 yr BP in the Jin-Shaan Gorges along the middle Yellow River, China, Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 410, 143, 10.1016/j.palaeo.2014.05.039 Macklin, 2006, Past hydrological events reflected in the Holocene fluvial record of Europe, Catena, 10.1016/j.catena.2005.07.015 Malamud, 2006, The applicability of power-law frequency statistics to floods, J. Hydrol., 322, 168, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.032 Merz, 2014, Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921, 10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014 Munoz, 2017, El Niño increases the risk of lower Mississippi River flooding, Sci. Rep., 7, 10.1038/s41598-017-01919-6 Munoz, 2018, Climatic control of Mississippi River flood hazard amplified by river engineering, Nature, 556, 95, 10.1038/nature26145 Murray, 2000, Luminescence dating of quartz using an improved single-aliquot regenerative-dose protocol, Radiat. Meas., 32, 57, 10.1016/S1350-4487(99)00253-X Murray, 2003, The single aliquot regenerative dose protocol: potential for improvements in reliability, Radiat. Meas., 37, 377, 10.1016/S1350-4487(03)00053-2 National Environment Research Council, 1999 National Research Council, 1988 O’Connor, 2003, Quaternary geology and geomorphology of the Lower Deschutes River Canyon, Oregon, Oregon Water Sci. Appl., 7, 77 O’Connor, 1994, A 4500-year record of large floods on the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, Arizona, J. Geol., 102, 1, 10.1086/629644 Ostenaa, D.A., Levish, D.R., O'Connell, D.R.H., 1996. Paleoflood study for Bradbury Dam, Cachuma Project, California. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Seismotectonic Report 96-3, Denver, CO. Partridge, 1987, Palaeoflood hydrology of the Salt river, Arizona, Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, 12, 109, 10.1002/esp.3290120202 Patton, 1977, Geomorphic response of central Texas stream channels to catastrophic rainfall and runoff, 189 Patton, 1982, Archaeologic and geomorphic evidence for the paleohydrologic record of the Pecos River in west Texas, Am. J. Sci., 282, 97, 10.2475/ajs.282.2.97 Pickup, 1988, History, palaeochannels and palaeofloods of the Finke River, central Australia, 177 Prescott, 1994, Cosmic ray contributions to dose rates for luminescence and ESR dating: large depths and long-term time variations, Radiat. Meas., 23, 497, 10.1016/1350-4487(94)90086-8 Reimer, 2013, IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0–50,000 years cal BP, Radiocarbon, 55, 1869, 10.2458/azu_js_rc.55.16947 Rouhani, 2016, A novel method to estimate the maximization ratio of the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) using regional climate model output, Water Resour. Res., 52, 7347, 10.1002/2016WR018603 Saint-Laurent, 2001, Spatio-temporal analysis of floods of the Saint-François drainage basin, Québec, Canada, Canada Environ., 29, 73 Schendel, T., Thongwichian, R., 2017. Considering historical flood events in flood frequency analysis: Is it worth the effort? Sheffer, 2003, Paleofloods and historical floods of the Ardèche River, France, Water Resour. Res., 39, 10.1029/2003WR002468 SL44-2006, 2006, 1 Song, 2015, Recent changes in extreme precipitation and drought over the Songhua River Basin, China, during 1960–2013, Atmos. Res., 157, 137, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.01.022 Springer, 1997, River-derived slackwater sediments in caves along Cheat River, West Virginia, Geomorphology, 18, 91, 10.1016/S0169-555X(96)00022-0 Stedinger, 1987, Surface water hydrology: historical and paleo-flood information, Rev. Geophys., 25, 119, 10.1029/RG025i002p00119 Stedinger, 1986, Flood frequency analysis with historical and paleoflood information, Water Resour. Res., 22, 785, 10.1029/WR022i005p00785 Stedinger, 2008, Flood frequency analysis in the united states: time to update, J. Hydrol. Eng., 13, 199, 10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2008)13:4(199) Toonen, 2017, Events, episodes, and phases: signal from noise in flood-sediment archives, Geology, 45, 331, 10.1130/G38540.1 Toonen, 2020, High-resolution sedimentary paleoflood records in alluvial river environments: a review of recent methodological advances and application to flood hazard assessment, 213 U. S. Bureau of Reclamation, 2003. Flood Hazard Analysis: Seminoe and Glendo Dams Kendrick Project and Pick Sloan Missouri Basin Program, Wyoming, Tech. Serv. Cent., Denver. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1991. “Inflow Design Floods for Dams and Reservoirs,” Engineer Regulation No. 1110-8-2 (FR). Webb, 1988, Paleohydrologic reconstruction of flood frequency on the Escalante River, 403 Western Regional Climate Center, 2013. Cooperative Climatological Data Summaries. Retrieved from http://wrcc.dri.edu/climatedata/climsum/. Wilhelm, 2019, Interpreting historical, botanical, and geological evidence to aid preparations for future floods, Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Water, 6, 10.1002/wat2.1318 Wintle, 2006, A review of quartz optically stimulated luminescence characteristics and their relevance in single-aliquot regenerative protocols, Radiat. Meas., 41, 369, 10.1016/j.radmeas.2005.11.001 Wohl, 1994, Controls on bedrock channel morphology along Nahal Paran, Israel. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, 19, 1, 10.1002/esp.3290190102 World Meteorological Organization, 2009 Yevjevich, 1968, Misconceptions in hydrology and their consequences, Water Resour. Res., 4, 225, 10.1029/WR004i002p00225