Sự chuẩn bị khu vực ở các đảo Thái Bình Dương trước hiện tượng El Niño

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 21 - Trang 405-428 - 2017
Ilan Kelman1,2
1Institute for Risk & Disaster Reduction and Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
2University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway

Tóm tắt

Chu trình dao động El Niño - Nam Cực (ENSO) thường bị xem là nguyên nhân dẫn đến thảm họa cho các cộng đồng đảo Thái Bình Dương. Từ góc độ giảm thiểu rủi ro thiên tai (DRR), các thách thức liên quan đến phần El Niño trong chu trình ENSO chủ yếu liên quan đến việc giảm thiểu độ dễ bị tổn thương trong phát triển hơn là các ảnh hưởng của nguy cơ do ENSO gây ra. Bài báo này phân tích tình huống này, lấp đầy khoảng trống khái niệm và địa lý trong nghiên cứu liên quan đến El Niño, thông qua việc xem xét sự chuẩn bị liên quan đến El Niño (khoảng trống khái niệm) cho các đảo Thái Bình Dương (khoảng trống địa lý). Qua việc khám phá tác động của El Niño đối với các cộng đồng đảo Thái Bình Dương cùng với những điểm dễ bị tổn thương, khả năng phục hồi và sự chuẩn bị liên quan đến El Niño, El Niño được coi là một diễn ngôn được xây dựng thay vì là một hiện tượng gây thiệt hại, dẫn đến những gợi ý về sự chuẩn bị đối với El Niño như là một phần của DRR trong phát triển. Tuy nhiên, sự chú ý mà El Niño thu hút có thể mang lại nguồn lực cho khu vực Thái Bình Dương và những nhu cầu phát triển của nó, mặc dù chỉ trong ngắn hạn trong khi El Niño diễn ra. Ngược lại, sự chú ý dành cho El Niño có thể chuyển hướng trách nhiệm từ các nguyên nhân sâu xa gây ra độ dễ bị tổn thương sang một quan điểm tập trung vào nguy cơ. Thay vì chỉ tập trung vào một hiện tượng ảnh hưởng đến nguy cơ, cần tạo ra cơ hội cho khu vực Thái Bình Dương giải quyết các vấn đề rộng hơn về DRR và phát triển.

Từ khóa

#El Niño #giảm thiểu rủi ro thiên tai #cộng đồng đảo Thái Bình Dương #độ dễ bị tổn thương #khả năng phục hồi #sự chuẩn bị

Tài liệu tham khảo

Alexander, D. E. (2013). Resilience and disaster risk reduction: An etymological journey. Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Science, 13(11), 2707–2716. Allen, K. (2015). Children and El Niño: Ensuring that El Niño doesn’t have a child’s face. UNICEF, New York. http://www.unocha.org/el-ni%C3%B1o/about-el-ni%C3%B1o/children-and-el-niño. Accessed March 25, 2016. Annamalai, H., Keener, V., Widlansky, M. J., & Hafner, J. (2015). El Niño strengthens in the Pacific: Preparing for the impacts of drought. Asia-Pacific Issues, 122, 2–10. Baldacchino, G. (2005). Successful small scale manufacturing from small islands: Comparing firms benefiting from local raw material input. Journal of Small Business and Entrepreneurship, 18(1), 21–38. Barr, J. (2000). Papua New Guinea case study. In M. H. Glantz (Ed.), Once burned, twice shy? Lessons learned from the 1997–98 El Niño (pp. 159–175). Tokyo: United Nations University Press. Bertram, G., & Watters, R. F. (1985). The MIRAB economy in South Pacific microstates. Pacific Viewpoint, 26(3), 497–519. Bjerknes, J. (1966). A possible response of the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies of ocean temperature. Tellus, 18(4), 820–829. Bjerknes, J. (1969). Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 97(3), 163–172. BoM. (2010). Pacific country report sea level & climate: Their present state. Nauru. December 2010. Canberra: BoM (Bureau of Meteorology). Bruno, J. F., Siddon, C. E., Witman, J. D., Colin, P. L., & Toscano, M. A. (2001). El Niño related coral bleaching in Palau, Western Caroline Islands. Coral Reefs, 20(2), 127–136. Burns, T. R., & Stöhr, C. (2011). The architecture and transformation of governance systems: Power, knowledge, and conflict. Human Systems Management, 30(4), 173–194. Campbell, J. R. (1984). Dealing with disaster: Hurricane response in Fiji. Honolulu: East-West Center. Campbell, J. (2009). Islandness: Vulnerability and resilience in Oceania. Shima: The International Journal of Research into Island Cultures, 3(1), 85–97. Campbell, J. (2015). Development, global change and traditional food security in Pacific island countries. Regional Environmental Change, 15(7), 1313–1324. Chowdhury, M. R., & Chu, P.-S. (2015). Sea level forecasts and early-warning application: Expanding cooperation in the South Pacific. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96(3), 381–386. Cronin, S. J., Gaylord, D. R., Charley, D., Alloway, B. V., Wallez, S., & Esau, J. W. (2004). Participatory methods of incorporating scientific with traditional knowledge for volcanic hazard management on Ambae Island, Vanuatu. Bulletin of Volcanology, 66(7), 652–668. Crush, J. (Ed.). (1995). Power of development. London: Routledge. Cumiskey, L., Hoang, T., Suzuki, S., Pettigrew, C., & Herrgård, M. M. (2015). Youth participation at the third UN world conference on disaster risk reduction. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 6(2), 150–163. Cuny, F. (1983). Disasters and development. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Dahlberg, R. (2015). Resilience and complexity: Conjoining the discourses of two contested concepts. Culture Unbound, 7(2015), 541–557. Davis, M. (2001). Late Victorian Holocausts: El Nino famines and the making of the third world. London: Verso. Dillaha, T. A., III, & Zolan, W. J. (1985). Rainwater catchment water quality in Micronesia. Water Research, 19(6), 741–746. Dilley, M., & Heyman, B. N. (1995). ENSO and disaster: Droughts, floods and El Niño/Southern Oscillation warm events. Disasters, 19(3), 181–193. Duncan, R., & McMaster, J. (2008). Impact of ICT on university education in small island states: The case of the University of the South Pacific. In E. M. Favaro (Ed.), Small states, smart solutions: Improving connectivity and increasing the effectiveness of public services (pp. 193–211). Washington, DC: The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank. Edmunds, P. J., Comeau, S., Lantz, C., Andersson, A., Briggs, C., Cohen, A., et al. (2016). Integrating the effects of ocean acidification across functional scales on tropical coral reefs. BioScience, 66(5), 350–362. Eguiguren, D. V. (1894). Las Lluvia en Piura [The Rains in Piura]. Boletin del Sociedad Geografica de Lima, 4, 241–258. Emont, J. P., Ko, A. I., Homasi-Paelate, A., Ituaso-Conway, N., & Nilles, E. J. (2017). Epidemiological investigation of a Diarrhea outbreak in the South Pacific island nation of Tuvalu during a severe La Niña-associated drought emergency in 2011. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygeine, 96(3), 576–582. Feinberg, R. (1988). Socio-spatial symbolism and the logic of rank on two Polynesian outliers. Ethnology, 27(3), 291–310. Finney, B. R. (1985). Anomalous westerlies, El Niño, and the colonization of Polynesia. American Anthropologist, 87(1), 9–26. Fletcher, S. M., Thiessen, J., Gero, A., Rumsey, M., Kuruppu, N., & Willetts, J. (2013). Traditional coping strategies and disaster response: Examples from the South Pacific Region. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2013, Article ID 264503. https://www.hindawi.com/journals/jeph/2013/264503. Fordham, M. (1999). The intersection of gender and social class in disaster: Balancing resilience and vulnerability. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 17(1), 15–36. Gaillard, J. C. (2007). Resilience of traditional societies in facing natural hazards. Disaster Prevention and Management, 16(4), 522–544. Gaillard, J. C. (2010). Vulnerability, capacity, and resilience: Perspectives for climate and disaster risk reduction. Journal of International Development, 22(2), 218–232. Giambelluca, T. W., Nullet, D., & Nullet, M. A. (1988). Agricultural drought on South-Central Pacific islands. The Professional Geographer, 40(4), 404–415. Glantz, M. H. (1979). Science, politics and economics of the Peruvian anchoveta fishery. Marine Policy, 3(3), 201–210. Glantz, M. H. (1994a). Creeping environmental problems. The World & I, June (pp. 218–225). Glantz, M. H. (1994b). Creeping environmental phenomena: Are societies equipped to deal with them? In M.H. Glantz (Ed.), Creeping environmental phenomena and societal responses to them, proceedings of workshop held 7–10 February 1994 in Boulder, Colorado (pp. 1–10). Boulder: NCAR/ESIG. Glantz, M. H. (Ed.). (2000). Lessons learned from the 1997–98 El Niño: Once burned, twice shy?. Tokyo: United Nations University Press. Glantz, M. H. (2001). Currents of change: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on climate and society (2nd ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Glantz, M. H. (2015). Shades of chaos: Lessons learned about lessons learned about forecasting El Niño and its impacts. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 6(1), 94–103. Glantz, M. H., & Katz, R. W. (1977). When is a drought a drought? Nature, 267(5608), 192–193. Glynn, P. W. (1988). El Nino-Southern Oscillation 1982–1983: Nearshore population, community, and ecosystem responses. Annual Reviews of Ecology and Systematics, 19, 309–345. Goddard, L., & Dilley, M. (2005). El Niño: Catastrophe or opportunity. Journal of Climate, 18(5), 651–665. Gueri, M., González, C., & Morin, V. (1986). The effect of the floods caused by “El Niño” on health. Disasters, 10(2), 118–124. Hales, S., Weinstein, P., & Woodward, A. (1999). Ciguatera (fish poisoning), El Niño, and Pacific Sea surface temperatures. Ecosystem Health, 5(1), 20–25. IPCC. (2013–2014). Fifth assessment report. Geneva: IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Johnston, I. (2015). Traditional warning signs of cyclones on remote islands in Fiji and Tonga. Environmental Hazards, 14(3), 210–223. Jost, C. (2006). Risques et enjeux environnementaux et changements sociétaux à Futuna (Pacifique français). Les Cahiers d’Outre Mer, 2001/1(233), 13–28. Kaloumaira, A. (2001). Fiji country case study: Impacts and responses to the 1997–98 El Niño event. In M. H. Glantz (Ed.), Reducing the impact of environmental emergencies through early warning and preparedness: The case of the 1997–98 El Niño (pp. 91–102). Boulder: National Center for Atmospheric Research. Kaloumaira, A. (2002). Reducing the impacts of environmental emergencies through early warning and preparedness. The case of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—The Fiji case study—(SOPAC Technical Report 344). Suva: SOPAC (South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission). Koop, N. L. (c. 2000). A proposal for the establishment of a national meteorological and hydrological service: A report prepared for the government of the Republic of Nauru. Nadi: Pacific Ocean and Atmosphere. Kovats, R. S., Bouma, M. J., Hajat, S., Worrall, E., & Haines, A. (2003). El Niño and health. The Lancet, 362(9394), 1481–1489. Krüger, F., Bankoff, G., Cannon, T., & Schipper, L. (2015). Cultures and disasters: Understanding cultural framings in disaster risk reduction. Abingdon: Routledge. Le De, L., Gaillard, J. C., Friesen, W., & Smith, F. M. (2015). Remittances in the face of disasters: A case study of rural Samoa. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 17(3), 653–672. Lefale, P. F. (2010). Ua ‘afa le Aso Stormy weather today: Traditional ecological knowledge of weather and climate. The Samoa experience. Climatic Change, 100(2), 317–335. Lewis, J. (1999). Development in disaster-prone places: Studies of vulnerability. London: Intermediate Technology Publications. Lewis, J. (2009). An island characteristic: Derivative vulnerabilities to indigenous and exogenous hazards. Shima: The International Journal of Research into Island Cultures, 3(1), 3–15. Lewis, J. (2013). Some realities of resilience: An updated case study of storms and flooding at Chiswell, Dorset. Disaster Prevention and Management, 22(4), 300–311. Lightfoot, C. (1999). Regional El Niño social and economic drought impact assessment and mitigation study. Suva: SOPAC (South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission). Luchetti, N., Sutton, J. R. P., Wright, E. E., Kruk, M. C., & Marra, J. J. (2016). When El Niño rages: How satellite data can help water-stressed islands. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), 2249–2255. Macpherson, C., & Macpherson, L. (2017). Culture and the commodification of water in Samoa. Asia Pacific Viewpoint, 58(1), 86–98. Magee, A. D., Verdon-Kidd, D. C., Diamond, H. J., & Kiem, A. S. (2017). Influence of ENSO, ENSO Modoki, and the IPO on tropical cyclogenesis: A spatial analysis of the southwest Pacific region. International Journal of Climatology, 37(S1), 1118–1137. Mantua, N. J., & Hare, S. R. (2002). The Pacific decadal oscillation. Journal of Oceanography, 58(1), 35–44. Marwan, N., Trauth, M. H., Vuille, M., & Kurths, J. (2003). Comparing modern and Pleistocene ENSO-like influences in NW Argentina using nonlinear time series analysis methods. Climate Dynamics, 21(3), 317–326. McNamara, K. E., & Prasad, S. S. (2014). Coping with extreme weather: Communities in Fiji and Vanuatu share their experiences and knowledge. Climate Change, 123(2), 121–132. McPhaden, M. J., Zebiak, S. E., & Glantz, M. H. (2006). ENSO as an integrating concept in Earth science. Science, 314(5806), 1740–1745. Méheux, K., Dominey-Howes, D., & Lloyd, K. (2007). Natural hazard impacts in small island developing states: A review of current knowledge and future research needs. Natural Hazards, 40(2), 429–446. Méheux, K., Dominey-Howes, D., & Lloyd, K. (2010). Operational challenges to community participation in post-disaster damage assessments: Observations from Fiji. Disasters, 34(4), 1102–1122. Mercer, J. (2010). Disaster risk reduction or climate change adaptation: Are we reinventing the wheel? Journal of International Development, 2(2), 247–264. Murphy, B. F., & Power, S. B. (2014). The varied impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Pacific island climates. Journal of Climate, 27(11), 4015–4036. Nakalevu, T. (2006). Capacity building for the development of adaptation measures in Pacific island countries project. Apia: SPREP (South Pacific Regional Environment Programme). Normile, D. (2016). El Niño’s warmth devastating reefs worldwide. Science, 352(6281), 15–16. Nunn, P. D. (2001). Ecological crises or marginal disruptions: The effects of the first humans on Pacific islands. New Zealand Geographer, 57(2), 11–20. Nunn, P. D., Hunter-Anderson, R., Carson, M. T., Thomas, F., Ulm, S., & Rowland, M. J. (2007). Times of plenty, times of less: Last-millennium societal disruption in the Pacific basin. Human Ecology, 35(4), 385–401. Pandolfi, J. M. (2015). Incorporating uncertainty in predicting the future response of coral reefs to climate change. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, 46, 281–303. Paton, K., & Fairbairn-Dunlop, P. (2010). Listening to local voices: Tuvaluans respond to climate change. Local Environment, 15(7), 687–698. Philander, S. G. (1990). El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation. New York: Academic Press. Roberts, R. G. (1958). Te Atu Tuvalu: A short history of the Ellice islands. The Journal of the Polynesian Society, 67(4), 394–423. Rosenau, J. N., & Czempiel, E.-O. (1992). Governance without government: Order and change in world politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Sarachik, E. S., & Cane, M. A. (2010). The El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Scheyvensa, R., & Momsen, J. (2008). Tourism in small island states: From vulnerability to strengths. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 16(5), 491–510. Schneider, D. M. (1957). Typhoons on Yap. Human Organisation, 16(2), 10–15. Schroeder, T. A., Chowdhury, Md R, Lander, M. A., Guard, C. C., Felkley, C., & Gifford, D. (2012). The role of the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center in reducing vulnerability to climate hazards: Experience from the U.S.-affiliated Pacific islands. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93(7), 1003–1015. Shea, E. (2003). Living with a climate in transition: Pacific communities plan for today and tomorrow. Honolulu: East-West Center. Siegert, F., Ruecker, G., Hinrichs, A., & Hoffmann, A. A. (2001). Increased damage from fires in logged forests during droughts caused by El Niño. Nature, 414(6862), 437–440. Streets, D. G., & Glantz, M. H. (2000). Exploring the concept of climate surprise. Global Environment Change, 10(2), 97–107. Sudmeier-Rieux, K. I. (2014). Resilience—An emerging paradigm of danger or of hope? Disaster Prevention and Management, 23(1), 67–80. Thompson, D. D. P. (2016). Do catastrophes in poor countries lead to event-related policy change? The 2010 Earthquake in Haiti. Journal of Public Administration and Governance, 6(2) (online). http://macrothink.org/journal/index.php/jpag/article/view/9370/7765 Accessed July 7, 2016. Thomson, C. (2009). The regional effects of El Niño in the Pacific. Suva: IFRC Pacific Regional Office. Tobin, G. A. (1995). The levee love affair: A stormy relationship. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 31(3), 359–367. Trenwith, A. (2003). The empire strikes back: Human rights and the Pitcairn proceedings. Journal of South Pacific Law, 7(2). http://www.paclii.org/journals/fJSPL/vol07no2/3.shtml. UNESCAP. (2014). El Niño 2014/2015: Impact outlook and policy implications for Pacific islands. Bangkok: UNESCAP (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific). UNISDR. (2009). UNISDR terminology on disaster risk reduction. Geneva: UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). UNISDR. (2015). Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015–2030. Geneva: UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). UNOCHA. (2016). El Niño. New York and Geneva: UNOCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs). http://www.unocha.org/el-niño/rainfall-and-el-niño and http://www.unocha.org/el-niño/cyclones-and-el-nino Accessed February 26, 2016. White, I., & Falkland, T. (2010). Management of freshwater lenses on small Pacific islands. Hydrogeology Journal, 18(1), 227–246. White, I., Falkland, T., Perez, P., Dray, A., Metutera, T., Metai, E., et al. (2007). Challenges in freshwater management in low coral atolls. Journal of Cleaner Production, 15(16), 1522–1528. Wilhite, D. A., & Glantz, M. H. (1985). Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions. Water International, 10(3), 111–120. Williams, S. (2008). Rethinking the nature of disaster: From failed instruments of learning to a post-social understanding. Social Forces, 87(2), 1115–1138. Worliczek, E., & Allenbach, M. (2011). Customary land tenure and the management of climate change and internal migration: The example of Wallis island. Land Tenure Journal, 2(11), 131–156. Wyrtki, K. (1985). Sea level fluctuations in the Pacific during the 1982–83 El Nino. Geophysical Reseach Letters, 12(3), 125–128. Zebiak, S. E., Orlove, B., Muñoz, Á. G., Vaughan, C., Hansen, J., Troy, T., et al. (2015). Investigating El Niño-Southern Oscillation and society relationships. WIREs Climate Change, 6(1), 17–34.