PREDICTION MARKETS IN THE LABORATORY
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Blohm I. Riedl C. Füller J. Köroglu O. Leimeister J.M. andKrcmar H.(2012)The effects of prediction market design and price elasticity on trading performance of users: an experimental analysis. InProceedings of the Collective Intelligence 2012 Cambridge MA. Available at:http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1204/1204.3457.pdf(last accessed 4 February 2013).
Bodsky R.(2012)Information aggregation in prediction markets: experimental evidence. Master's thesis Chapman University.
Camerer C., 1987, Do biases in probability judgment matter in markets? Experimental evidence, The American Economic Review, 77, 981
Chen K.‐Y.andPlott C.(2002)Information aggregation mechanisms concept design and field implementation. Social Science Working Paper no. 1131 California Institute of Technology.
Cowgill B.O. Wolfers J. andZitzewitz E.(2009)Using prediction markets to track information flows: evidence from google. Working Paper. Available at:http://bocowgill.com/GooglePredictionMarketPaper.pdf.
Forsythe R., 1992, Anatomy of an experimental political stock market, American Economic Review, 82, 1142
Gallardo P., 2009, Execution methods in foreign exchange markets, BIS Quarterly Review, 83
Gjerstad S.(2005)Risk aversion beliefs and prediction market equilibrium. Working Paper. Available at:http://www.aeaweb.org/assa/2006/0106_1015_0701.pdf.
Graefe A., 2010, Are prediction markets more accurate than simple surveys?, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 19, 39
Graefe A., 2010, Comparing face‐to‐face meetings, nominal groups, delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task, International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.05.004
Hahn R., 2005, Using information markets to improve public decision making, Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy, 29, 213
Hayek F., 1945, The use of knowledge in society, American Economic Review, 35, 519
Huber J.andHauser F.(2005)Systematic mispricing in experimental markets—evidence from political stock markets. Working Paper University of Innsbruck.
Oprea R. Porter D. Hibbert C. Hanson R. andTila D.(2007)Can manipulators mislead market observers?” ESI Working Paper Chapman University. Available at:http://hanson.gmu.edu/judges.pdf( last accessed 4 February 2013).
Rieg R., 2010, Forecasting accuracy: comparing prediction markets and surveys – an experimental study, The Journal of Prediction Markets, 4, 1
Rieg R.andSchoder R.(2011)Averaging and private information as drivers of prediction market accuracy: evidence from experimental studies. Available at:http://www.forecasters.org/submissions/RiegRobertISF2011.pdf(last accessed 4 February 2013).
Rietz T.(2005)Behavioral mispricing and arbitrage in experimental asset markets. Working Paper University of Iowa.
Roll R., 1984, Orange juice and weather, American Economic Review, 74, 861
Sonneman U. Camerer C. Fox C. andLanger T.(2008)Partition‐dependent framing effects in lab and field prediction markets. Working Paper UCLA.
Surowiecki J., 2004, The Wisdom of Crowds
Tziralis G., 2007, Prediction markets: an extended literature review, Journal of Prediction Markets, 1, 75, 10.5750/jpm.v1i1.421