Operational earthquake forecast/prediction
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Aki K (1981) A probabilistic synthesis of precursory phenomena. In: Simpson DV, Richards PG (eds) Earthquake prediction. An international review, Manrice EwingSer., vol 4. AGU, Washington, pp 566–574
Bormann P (2011) From earthquake prediction research to time-variable seismic hazard assessment applications. Pure Appl Geophys 168:329–366. doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0114-0
Camera dei Deputati (2011) “7-0049 Alessandri e 7-00414 Benamati: In materia di isolamento sismico delle costruzioni civili e industriali”, Bollettino della Camera dei Deputati, n. 491, pp 367–368
Crippa B, Sabadini R, Chersich M, Barzaghi R, Panza G (2008) Coupling geophysical modelling and geodesy to unravel the physics of active faults. Second Workshop on “Use of Remote Sensing Techniques for Monitoring Volcanoes and Seismogenic Areas”. USEReST
Gerstenberger MC, Wiemer S, Jones LM, Reasenberg PA (2005) Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California. Nature 435:328–331
Giardini D, Grunthal G, Shedlock KM, Zhang P (1999) The GSHAP global seismic hazard map. Annali di Geofisica 42(6):1225–1228
Grandori G, Guagenti E (2009) Prevedere i terremoti: la lezione dell'Abruzzo. Ingegneria Sismica 3:56–61
Guidelines for Earthquake Predictors (1983) Bull Seism Soc Am 73(6):955–956
Healy JH, Kossobokov VG, Dewey JW (1992) A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8, US Geol Surv Open-File Report 92–401, p 23 with 6 Appendices
Ismail-Zadeh AT, Kossobokov VG (2011) Earthquake forecast M8 algorithm, in Encyclopaedia of Solid Earth Geophysics, Gupta H (ed) Springer, Heidelberg. doi: 10.1007/978-90-481-8702-7
Jordan T, Chen Y, Gasparini P, Madariaga R, Main I, Marzocchi W, Papadopoulos G, Sobolev G, Yamaoka K, Zschau J (2011) ICEF Report. Operational earthquake forecasting: state of knowledge and guidelines for utilization. Annals Geophys 54(4). doi: 10.4401/ag-5350
Kanamori H (2003) Earthquake prediction: an overview. International handbook of earthquake and engineering seismology. 81B. In: International association of seismology and physics of the earth’s interior, pp 1205–1216
Kantorovich LV, Keilis-Borok VI (1991) “Earthquake prediction and decision-making: social, economic and civil protection aspects” (Proc. International Conference on Earthquake Prediction: State-of-the-Art, pp 586-593, Scientific-Technical Contributions, CSEM-EMSC, Strasbourg, France, 1991). Based on “Economics of earthquake prediction” (Proc. UNESCO Conference on Seismic Risk, Paris, 1977)
Keilis-Borok VI (1990) The lithosphere of the earth as a nonlinear system with implications for earthquake prediction. Rev Geophys 28:19–34
Keilis-Borok VI, Kossobokov VG (1990) Preliminary activation of seismic flow: algorithm M8. Phys Earth Planet Inter 61:73–83
Keilis-Borok VI, Primakov I (1997)“Earthquake prediction and earthquake preparedness: the possibilities to reduce the damage from earthquake”s. In: Fourth Workshop on non-linear dynamics and earthquake prediction, 6–24 October 1997, ICTP, H4.SMR/1011-11, Trieste, p 30
Keilis-Borok VI, Rotwain IM (1990) Diagnosis of time of increased probability of strong earthquakes in different regions of the world: algorithm CN. Phys Earth Planet Inter 61:57–72
Keilis-Borok VI, Soloviev AA (eds) (2003) Non-linear dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction. Springer, Heidelberg, p 337
Kossobokov V (2005) Regional earthquake likelihood models: a realm on shaky grounds? Eos Trans AGU, 86(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract S41D-08
Kossobokov V (2008) Testing earthquake forecast/prediction methods: “Real-time forecasts of tomorrow’s earthquakes in California”. Geophysical Research Abstracts, vol 10. Abstracts of the Contributions of the EGU General Assembly 2008, Vienna, Austria, 13–18 April 2008 (CD-ROM), EGU2008-A-07826
Kossobokov V (2009) Testing earthquake forecast/prediction methods: “Real-time forecasts of tomorrow’s earthquakes in California”. In: Some problems of geodynamics, KRASAND (Comput. Seismol., 39), Moscow, pp 321–337 (in Russian)
Кossobokov VG, Nekrasova AK (2010) Global seismic hazard assessment program maps are misleading. Eos Trans. AGU, 91(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract U13A-0020
Kossobokov VG, Nekrasova AK (2011) Global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP) maps are misleading. Probl Eng Seismol 38(1):65–76 (in Russian)
Kossobokov V, Shebalin P (2003) Earthquake Prediction. In: Keilis-Borok VI, Soloviev AA (eds) Non-linear dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 141–207
Kossobokov VG, Maeda K, Uyeda S (1999) Precursory activation of seismicity in advance of the Kobe, 1995 earthquake. Pure Appl Geophys 155:409–423
Kossobokov VG, Romashkova LL, Panza GF, Peresan A (2002) Stabilizing intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions. J Seismol Earthq Eng 4(2, 3):11–19
Lee Y, Turcotte DL, Holliday JR, Sachs MK, Rundle JB, Chen C, Tiampo KF (2011) Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California. PNAS 108(40):16533–16538. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1113481108
Marzocchi W (2008) Earthquake forecasting in Italy, before and after Umbria-Marche seismic sequence 1997. A review of the earthquake occurrence modeling at different spatio-temporal-magnitude scales. Annals Geophys 51:405–416
Marzocchi W, Sandri L, Boschi E (2003) On the validation of earthquake-forecasting models: the case of pattern recognition algorithms. B Seismol Soc Am 93:1994–2004
Memoria del Pubblico Ministero (2010) Procura della Repubblica presso il Tribunale di L’Aquila. 13 July 2010. Proc. Pen. 253/10 R.G. Noti (in Italian). http://www.procura.laquila.it/ ; http://www.inabruzzo.com/memoria_finale_13_luglio.pdf
Molchan G (2003) Earthquake prediction strategies: a theoretical analysis. In: Keilis-Borok VI, Soloviev AA (eds) Non-linear dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction, chap 5. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 209–237
Molchan G (2011) On the testing of seismicity models. Acta Geophysica 1–14. doi: 10.2478/s11600-011-0042-0
Molchan G, Romashkova L (2011) Gambling score in earthquake prediction analysis. Geophys J Int 184:1445–1454. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.04930.x
Panza GF, Romanelli F, Vaccari F (2001) Seismic wave propagation in laterally heterogeneous anelastic media: theory and applications to the seismic zonation. Advances in Geophysics, Academic Press, vol 43, pp 1–95
Panza GF, Romanelli F, Vaccari F, Decanini L, Mollaioli F (2004) Seismic ground motion modelling and damage earthquake scenarios: a possible bridge between seismologists and seismic engineers. In: Chen YT, Panza GF, Wu ZL (eds) Earthquake: hazard, risk, and strong ground motion, Seismological Press, pp 323–349
Panza GF, Peresan A, Vaccari F (2009) La previsione dei terremoti: stato dell’arte. Geoitalia 28:18–23 (in Italian)
Panza GF, Irikura K, Kouteva M, Peresan A, Wang Z, Saragoni R (eds) (2011a) Topical volume on “Advanced seismic hazard assessments”. Pure App Geophys 168:752. ISBN 978-3-0348-0039-6, ISBN: 978-3-0348-0091-4
Panza GF, Peresan A, Magrin A, Vaccari F, Sabadini R, Crippa B, Marotta AM, Splendore R, Barzaghi R, Borghi A, Cannizzaro L, Amodio A, Zoffoli S (2011b) “The SISMA prototype system: integrating Geophysical Modeling and Earth Observation for time-dependent seismic hazard assessment”. Natural Hazards 1–20. doi: 10.1007/s11069-011-9981-7
Peresan A, Panza GF, Gorshkov A, Aoudia A (2002) Pattern recognition methodologies and deterministic evaluation of seismic hazard: a strategy to increase earthquake preparedness. Bollettino della Società Geologica Italiana (Atti del Convegno in memoria di G. Pialli). Volume Speciale n° 1 (parte 1), pp 37–46
Peresan A, Kossobokov V, Romashkova L, Panza GF (2005) Intermediate-term middle-range earthquake predictions in Italy: a review. Earth Sci Rev 69(1–2):97–132
Peresan A, Zuccolo E, Vaccari F, Gorshkove A, Panza GF (2011) “Pattern recognition techniques and neo-deterministic seismic hazard: time dependent scenarios for North-Eastern Italy”. Pure Appl Geophys Topical Volume on “Advanced Seismic Hazard Assessments”, vol 168 (3–4). doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0166-1
Reiter L (1990) Earthquake hazard analysis. Columbia University Press, New York
Romashkova L, Peresan A, Nekrasova A (2009) Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs for CSEP Testing Region Italy, ICTP Internal Report, IC/IR/2009/006
Rovida A and the CPTI Working Group (2008) Parametric Catalogue of Italian Earthquakes, version 2008 (CPTI08), 1900–2006. http://cseptesting.org/sites/default/files/expl_cpti08_1901-2006.pdf
Rundle JB, Holliday JR, Yoder M, Sachs MK, Donnellan A, Turcotte DL, Tiampo KF, Klein W, Kellogg LH (2011) Earthquake precursors: activation or quiescence? Geophys J Int 187:225–236
Stein S (2010) Disaster deferred: how new science is changing our view of earthquake hazards in the Midwest. Columbia University Press, New York. ISBN: 978-0-231-15138-2
Stein S, Geller R, Liu M (2011) Bad assumptions or bad luck: why earthquake hazard maps need objective testing. Seism Res Lett 82:5
Utsu T (1977) Probabilities in earthquake prediction. Zisin (J Seismol Soc Japan 30:179–185 (in Japanese)