On the estimation of the effect of labour participation on fertility
Tóm tắt
In this paper we consider the estimation of the causal effect of female
labour market status (participation and employment) on fertility. We focus on the
sensitivity of the estimated effect to (i) the assumptions about the exogeneity of labour
market status; and (ii) the time interval between the measurement of fertility and
employment status. Using Spanish quarterly data, we estimate a switching probit
model that accounts for the joint determination of both variables. In order to obtain
a behavioural effect of the former on the latter, we look at the timing of conception
instead of the timing of birth, and present alternative sets of estimates depending on
the accuracy with which conception is measured (yearly or quarterly). Our results
show a positive although non-significant effect of participation and employment on
the probability of having the first child, once the sample of women who conceive in the
same quarter (or one quarter later) in which labour market status is measured and the
endogeneity between both variables is accounted for. We find that annual data tend to
over-estimate the negative effect of employment or participation on the probability of
having a child, but the main biases appear when looking at the effect of participation.
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