On the Shape of the Probability Weighting Function

Cognitive Psychology - Tập 38 Số 1 - Trang 129-166 - 1999
Richard Gonzalez1, George Wu2
1UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN
2University of Chicago Graduate School of Business.

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Abdellaoui, M. 1998, Parameter-free elicitation of utilities and probability weighting functions

Aczel, 1966

Arrow, 1951, Alternative approaches to the theory of choice in risk-taking situations, Econometrica, 19, 404, 10.2307/1907465

Becker, 1964, Measuring utility by a single-response sequential method, Behavioral Science, 9, 226, 10.1002/bs.3830090304

Becker, 1988

Bell, 1985, Disappointment in decision making under uncertainty, Operations Research, 33, 1, 10.1287/opre.33.1.1

Bernstein, 1997, Models of choice between multioutcome lotteries, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 93, 10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199706)10:2<93::AID-BDM249>3.0.CO;2-C

Birnbaum, 1997, Violations of monotonicity in judgment and decision making

Birnbaum, 1996, Violations of branch independence in choices between gamles, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 91, 10.1006/obhd.1996.0067

Bostic, 1990, The effect on the preference reversal phenomenon of using choice indifferences, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 13, 193, 10.1016/0167-2681(90)90086-S

Camerer, 1995, Individual decision making, 587

Camerer, 1992, Recent tests of generalizations of expected utility theory, 207

Camerer, 1994, Violations of the betweenness axiom and nonlinearity in probability, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 8, 167, 10.1007/BF01065371

Carroll, 1988

Chechile, 1997, An experimental test of a general class of utility models: Evidence for context dependency, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 14, 75, 10.1023/A:1007773804402

Coombs, 1967, Testing expectation theories of decision making without measuring utility or subjective probability, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 4, 72, 10.1016/0022-2496(67)90042-9

De Leeuw, 1976, Additive structure in qualitative data: An alternating least squares method with optimal scaling features, Psychometrika, 41, 471, 10.1007/BF02296971

Edwards, 1954, The theory of decision making, Psychological Bulletin, 51, 380, 10.1037/h0053870

Estes, 1956, The problem of inference from curves based on group data, Psychological Bulletin, 53, 134, 10.1037/h0045156

Fishburn, 1978, On Handa's “new theory of cardinal utility” and the maximization of expected return, Journal of Polical Economy, 86, 321, 10.1086/260670

Fishburn, 1979, Two-piece Von Neumann–Morgenstern utility functions, Decision Sciences, 10, 503, 10.1111/j.1540-5915.1979.tb00043.x

Fox, 1995, Ambiguity aversion and comparative ignorance, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 585, 10.2307/2946693

Fox, 1998, A belief-based account of decision under uncertainty, Management Science, 44, 879, 10.1287/mnsc.44.7.879

Fox, 1996, Options traders exhibit subadditive decision weights, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 13, 5, 10.1007/BF00055335

Galanter, 1974, Cross-modality matching of money against other continua, 65

Goldstein, 1987, Expression theory and the preference reversal phenomena, Psychological Review, 94, 236, 10.1037/0033-295X.94.2.236

Haggard, 1958

Hartinger, A. 1998, Do subjective weighting functions of generalized expected value theories capture persisting properties of individual decision makers

Heath, C. Larrick, R. P. Wu, G. 1999, Goals as reference points

Heath, 1991, Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 4, 5, 10.1007/BF00057884

Hey, 1994, Investigating generalizations of expected utility theory using experimental data, Econometrica, 62, 1291, 10.2307/2951750

Kahneman, 1979, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica, 47, 263, 10.2307/1914185

Karmarkar, 1978, Subjectively weighted utility: A descriptive extension of the expected utility model, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 21, 61, 10.1016/0030-5073(78)90039-9

Karmarkar, 1979, Subjectively weighted utility and the Allais paradox, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 24, 67, 10.1016/0030-5073(79)90016-3

Kilka, M. Weber, M. 1998, What determines the shape of the probability weighting function under uncertainty?

Krantz, 1971

Langer, 1975, The illusion of control, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 311, 10.1037/0022-3514.32.2.311

Lattimore, 1992, The influence of probability on risky choice: A parametric examination, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 17, 377, 10.1016/S0167-2681(95)90015-2

Leland, 1998, Similarity judgments in choice under uncertainty: A reinterpretation of the prediction of regret theory, Management Science, 44, 659, 10.1287/mnsc.44.5.659

Lopes, 1987, Between hope and fear: The psychology of risk, 255, 10.1016/S0065-2601(08)60416-5

Lopes, 1990, Re-modeling risk aversion: A comparison of Bernoullian and rank dependent value approaches

Luce, 1991, Rank- and sign-dependent linear utility models for finite first-order gambles, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 4, 29, 10.1007/BF00057885

Luce, 1995, A note on deriving rank-dependent utility using additive joint receipts, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 11, 5, 10.1007/BF01132728

Luce, 1993, Is choice the correct primitive? On using certainty equivalents and reference levels to predict choices among gambles, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 6, 115, 10.1007/BF01065354

McLachlan, 1997

Miyamoto, 1988, Generic utility theory: Measurement foundations and applications in multiattribute utility theory, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 32, 357, 10.1016/0022-2496(88)90019-3

Mosteller, 1951, An experimental measurement of utility, Journal of Political Economy, 5, 371, 10.1086/257106

Parker, 1988, Conjoint scaling of the utility of money using paired comparisons, Social Science Research, 17, 277, 10.1016/0049-089X(88)90017-8

Piaget, 1975

Prelec, 1998, The probability weighting function, Econometrica, 66, 497, 10.2307/2998573

Preston, 1948, An experimental study of the auction-value of an uncertain outcome, American Journal of Psychology, 61, 183, 10.2307/1416964

Quattrone, 1988, Contrasting rational and psychological analyses of political choice, American Political Science Review, 82, 719, 10.2307/1962487

Quiggin, 1982, A theory of anticipated utility, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 3, 323, 10.1016/0167-2681(82)90008-7

Quiggin, 1993

Schlee, 1995, The comparative statics of deductible insurance in expected and non-expected utility theories, Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, 20, 57, 10.1007/BF01098958

Seber, 1989

Segal, 1989, Anticipated utility: A measure representation approach, Annals of Operations Research, 19, 359, 10.1007/BF02283529

Siegel, 1956, A method for obtaining an ordered metric scale, Psychometrika, 21, 207, 10.1007/BF02289100

Starmer, 1989, Violations of the independence axiom in common ratio problems: An experimental test of some competing hypotheses, Annals of Operations Research, 19, 79, 10.1007/BF02283515

Tanner, 1996

Thaler, 1988, Parimutuel betting markets: Racetracks and lotteries, Journal of Econometric Perspectives, 2, 161, 10.1257/jep.2.2.161

Tversky, 1995, Weighing risk and uncertainty, Psychological Review, 102, 269, 10.1037/0033-295X.102.2.269

Tversky, 1986, Rational choice and the framing of decisions, Journal of Business, 59, S251, 10.1086/296365

Tversky, 1992, Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representations of uncertainty, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 297, 10.1007/BF00122574

Tversky, 1994, Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability, Psychological Review, 101, 547, 10.1037/0033-295X.101.4.547

Tversky, 1995, Risk attitudes and decision weights, Econometrica, 63, 1255, 10.2307/2171769

Tversky, A. Wakker, P. 1998, On the composition of risk preference and belief

Wakker, 1989

Wakker, 1994, Separating marginal utility and probabilistic risk aversion, Theory and Decision, 36, 1, 10.1007/BF01075296

Wakker, 1996, Eliciting von Neumann–Morgenstern utilities when probabilities are distorted or unknown, Management Science, 42, 1131, 10.1287/mnsc.42.8.1131

Wakker, 1995, Explaining distortions in utility elicitation through the rank-dependent model for risky choices, Medical Decision Making, 15, 180, 10.1177/0272989X9501500212

Wakker, 1993, An axiomatization of cumulative prospect theory, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 7, 147, 10.1007/BF01065812

Wakker, 1997, Probabilistic insurance, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 15, 7, 10.1023/A:1007799303256

Weber, 1994, From subjective probabilities to decision weights: The effect of asymmetric loss functions on the evaluation of uncertain outcomes and events, Psychological Bulletin, 115, 228, 10.1037/0033-2909.115.2.228

Weibull, 1982, A dual to the von Neumann–Morgentern theorem, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 26, 191, 10.1016/0022-2496(82)90001-3

Wu, 1994, An empirical test of ordinal independence, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 9, 39, 10.1007/BF01073402

Wu, 1996, Curvature of the probability weighting function, Management Science, 42, 1676, 10.1287/mnsc.42.12.1676

Wu, 1998, Common consequence conditions in decision making under risk, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 16, 115, 10.1023/A:1007714509322

Wu, 1999, Nonlinear decision weights in choice under uncertainty, Management Science, 45, 74, 10.1287/mnsc.45.1.74

Yaari, 1987, The dual theory of choice under risk, Econometrica, 55, 95, 10.2307/1911158

Young, 1981, Quantitative analysis of qualitative data, Psychometrika, 46, 357, 10.1007/BF02293796