No Contagion, Only Interdependence During the US Sub-Primes Crisis

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 18 - Trang 286-298 - 2011
Anis Omri1, Mohamed Frikha1
1Faculty of Economics and Management of Sfax, Sfax, Tunisia

Tóm tắt

In this paper, we have interested to testing the contagion exists that is caused by the sub-prime crisis, in order to distinguish between the cases of interdependences and “shift contagion” during this crisis. The analysis was conducted on a sample of four highly transition countries: Brazil, Russia, India and china, and the market source of crisis, taking into consideration the index as an aggregate indicator of financial market. The study of contagion is based on the tests of adjusted correlation coefficient and the non-linear error correction models. Indeed, these techniques reject the contagion hypothesis between these markets in order to conclude “no contagion, only interdependence”.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Allen F, Gale D (2004) Financial intermediaries and markets. Econometrica 72(4):1023–1061 Baig T, Goldfajn I (1999) The Russian default and the contagion to Brazil, IMF Working Paper, WP/00/160 Brunnermeier MK, Pedersen LH (2005) Predatory trading. J Fin 60(4):1825–1863 Brunnermeier MK, Pedersen LH (2009) Market liquidity and funding liquidity. Rev Fin Stud 22(6):2201–2238 Collins D, Biekpe N (2002) Contagion: a fear for African equity markets? J Econ Bus 55(3):285–297 Corsetti G, Pericoli M, Sbracia M (2002) Some contagion, some interdependence, more pitfalls in tests of financial contagion. J Int Money Fin 24(8):1177–1199 Dickey DA, Fuller WA (1981) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica 49(366):1057–1072 Engel R, Granger C (1987) Co-integration and error correction representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 55(2):251–276 Escribano A, Pfann G (1998) Non-linear error correction, asymmetric adjustment and cointegration. Econ Model 15(2):197–216 Forbes K, Rigobon R (2000) Contagion in Latin America: definitions, measurements and policy implications. NBER Working Paper Forbes K, Rigobon R (2002) No contagion, only interdependence: measuring stock market co-movement. J Fin 57(5):2223–2261 Glick R, Andrew R (1999) Contagion and trade why are currency crises regional? J Int Money Fin 18(4):603–617 Granger C, Lee TH (1989) Investigation of production, sales and non-symmetric error correction models. J Appl Econ 4(1):145–159 Kaminsky G, Reinhart C (1999) Bank lending and contagion: evidence from the Asian crisis. NBER 10th Annual East Asia Seminar on Economics Kaminsky G, Reinhardt C, Vegh C (2003) The unholy trinity of financial contagion. J Econ Perspect 17(4): 51–74 Kodres L, Pritsker M (2002) A rational expectations model of financial contagion. J Finance 57(2): 769–800 Loretan M, English WB (2000) Evaluation “correlation breakdowns” during periods of market volatility. International Finance Discussion Paper No. 658, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC Masih A, Masih R (1999) Are Asian stock market fluctuations due mainly to intra–regional contagion effects? Evidence based on Asian emerging stock markets. Pac Basin Fin J 7(3–4):251–282 Masson P (1998) Contagion: monsoonal effects spillovers, and jumps between multiple equilibria. IMF Working Paper wp/98/142, Washington DC, International Omri A, Ghorbel-Zouari S (2011) International financial contagion of the US sub-prime crisis: evidence through the adjusted correlation test and non-linear error correction models (ECM). Int J Monet Econ Fin 4(2):135–149