New patient-oriented summary measure of net total gain in certainty for dichotomous diagnostic tests
Tóm tắt
To introduce a new, patient-oriented predictive index as a measure of gain in certainty. Algebraic equations. A new measure is suggested based on error rates in a patient population. The new Predictive Summary Index (PSI) reflects the true total gain in certainty obtained by performing a diagnostic test based on knowledge of disease prevalence, i.e., the overall additional certainty. We show that the overall gain in certainty can be expressed in the form of the following expression: PSI = PPV+NPV-1. PSI is a more comprehensive measure than the post-test probability or the Youden Index (J). The reciprocal of J is interpreted as the number of persons with a given disease who need to be examined in order to detect correctly one person with the disease. The reciprocal of PSI is suggested as the number of persons who need to be examined in order to correctly predict a diagnosis of the disease. PSI provides more information than J and the predictive values, making it more appropriate in a clinical setting.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Youden EJ: Index for rating diagnostic tests. Cancer 1950, 32–35.
Connell FA, Koepsell TD: Measures of gain in certainty from diagnostic test. American Journal of Epidemiology 1985, 121:744–753.
Salmi LR: Re: Measures of gain in certainty from a diagnostic test. American Journal of Epidemiology 1986, 123:1121–1122.
Weinstein MC, Finberg HV: Clinical Decision Analysis. W.B. Saunders Co., Philadelphia PA 1980.
Altman DG: Practical Statistics for Medical Research. Chapman & Hall, London 1991.
Riffenburgh RH: Statistics in Medicine. Academic Press. San Diego CA 1993.
Hirsch RP, Riegelman RK: Statistical Operations. Blackwell Science. Oxford 1996.
Sackett DL, Haynes RB, Guyatt GH, Tugwell P: Clinical Epidemiology 2 Edition Little Brown & Company. Boston MA 1991.
Kraemer HC: Evaluation of Medical Tests. Objective and Quantitative Guidelines Sage Publications. London 1992.
Beaglehole R, Bonita R, Kjellstrom T: Basic Epidemiology WHO Geneva 1993.
Bradley GW: Disease Diagnosis and Decision John Wiley & Sons. New York NY 1993.
Essex-Sorlie D: Medical Biostatistics and Epidemiology Appleton & Lange. CT 1995.
Jenicek M: Epidemiology. The Logic of Modern Medicine Epimed Montreal, Canada 1995.
Wassertheil S: Biostatistics and Epidemiology Springer-Verlag. New York NY 1995.
Weiss NS: Clinical Epidemiology Oxford University Press, Oxford 1996.
Rothman KJ, Greenland S: Modern Epidemiology Lippincott-Raven, Philadelphia 1998.
Silva SI: Cancer Epidemiology: Principles and Methods IARC, WHO, Lyon, France 1999.
Feinstein AR: Principles of Medical Statistics. Chapman & Hall/CRC. Boca Raton FL 2002.
Riegelman RK: Studying a Study and Testing a Test. Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins, Philadelphia PA 2000.
Dawson B, Trapp RG: Basic and Clinical Biostatistics. Lange Medical Books, McGraw Hill, New York NY 2001.
Greenberg RS, Daniels SR, Flanders WD, Eley JW, Boring JR: Medical Epidemiology Lange. McGraw-Hill. London 2001.
Knottnerus JA, van Weel C: General introduction: Evaluation of diagnostic procedures. The Evidence Base of Clinical Diagnosis (Edited by: Knottnerus JA). BMJ Publishing, London 2002, 1–18.
Sackett D, Haynes RB: The architecture of diagnostic research. The Evidence Base of Clinical Diagnosis (Edited by: Knottnerus JA). BMJ Publishing, London 2002, 19–38.
Habbema JD, Eijkemans R, Krijnen P, Knottnerus JA: Analysis of data on the accuracy of diagnostic tests. The Evidence Base of Clinical Diagnosis (Edited by: Knottnerus JA). BMJ Publishing, London 2002, 117–144.
Zhou XH, Obuchoedki NA, McClish DK: Statistical Methods in Diagnostic Medicine. John Wiley and Sons 2002.
Pepe MS: The Statistical Evaluation of Medical Tests for Classification and Prediction. Oxford Statistical Science Series 28 Oxford University Press, Oxford 2003.
Fleiss JL: Statistical Methods for Rates and Proportions. 2 Edition John Wiley & Sons, New York NY 1981.
Reid MC, Lane DA, Feinstein AR: Academic calculation versus clinical judgments: Practicing physicians' use of quantitative measures of test accuracy. American Journal of Medicine 1998, 104:374–380.
Linn S: New patient-oriented diagnostic test characteristics analogous to the likelihood ratios convey information on trustfulness. Clinical Epidemiology 2005, 58:450–457.
Zweig MH, Campbell G: Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) plots: A fundamental evaluation tool in clinical medicine. Clinical Chemistry 1993, 39:561–577.
Ransohoff DF: Challenges and opportunities in evaluating diagnostic tests. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 2002, 55:1178–1182.
Marshall KG: Prevention. How much harm? How much benefit? 3. Physical, psychological and social harm. Canadian Medical Association Journal 1996, 15;155:169–176.
Moons KGM, Harrell FE: Sensitivity and specificity should be de-emphasized in diagnostic accuracy studies. Academic Radiology 2003, 10:670–672.
Bandolier : How good is the test. [http://www.jr2.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/band27/b27–2.htmlx] 1996, 27:2.
Faraggi D: Adjusting receiver operating characteristic curve and related indices for covariates. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (the Statistician) 2003, 52:179–182.
Fluss , Ronen : Estimation of the Youden index and the associated Cut-Off Point. MSc Thesis. supervised by David Faraggi, Benjamin Reisser
Schechter MT, Sheps SB: Diagnostic testing revisited: pathways through uncertainty. Canadian Medical Association Journal 1985, 132:755–760.
Abramson JH, Paul Gahlinger: Computer Programs for Epidemiologists – PEPI Version 4.0. [http://www.sagebrushpress.com/pepibook.html] Salt Lake City, Utah:Sagebrush Press