New feed sources key to ambitious climate targets
Tóm tắt
Net carbon sinks capable of avoiding dangerous perturbation of the climate system and preventing ocean acidification have been identified, but they are likely to be limited by resource constraints (Nature 463:747–756, 2010). Land scarcity already creates tension between food security and bioenergy production, and this competition is likely to intensify as populations and the effects of climate change expand. Despite research into microalgae as a next-generation energy source, the land-sparing consequences of alternative sources of livestock feed have been overlooked. Here we use the FeliX model to quantify emissions pathways when microalgae is used as a feedstock to free up to 2 billion hectares of land currently used for pasture and feed crops. Forest plantations established on these areas can conceivably meet 50 % of global primary energy demand, resulting in emissions mitigation from the energy and LULUC sectors of up to 544
$$\pm$$
107 PgC by 2100. Further emissions reductions from carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology can reduce global atmospheric carbon concentrations close to preindustrial levels by the end of the present century. Though previously thought unattainable, carbon sinks and climate change mitigation of this magnitude are well within the bounds of technological feasibility.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Moss RH, et al. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature. 2010;463:747–56.
Edenhofer O, Pichs-Madruga R, Sokona Y, Farahani E, Kadner S, Seyboth K, Adler A, Baum I, Brunner S, Eickemeier P, et al. Climate change, mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2014;511–97.
Tilman D, Balzer C, Hill J, Befort BL. Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2011;108(50):20260–4.
Eshel G, Shepon A, Makov T, Milo R. Land, irrigation water, greenhouse gas, and reactive nitrogen burdens of meat, eggs, and dairy production in the united states. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2014;111(33):11996–2001.
Smith P, Martino D, Cai Z, Gwary D, Janzen H, Kumar P, McCarl B, Ogle S, O’Mara F, Rice C, et al. Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture. Philos Trans R Soci B Biol Sci. 2008;363(1492):789–813.
Rose SK, Kriegler E, Bibas R, Calvin K, Popp A, van Vuuren DP, Weyant J. Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management. Clim Change. 2014;123(3–4):477–93.
Beringer T, Lucht W, Schapoff S. Bioenergy production potential of global biomass plantations under environmental and agricultural constraints. GCB Bioenerg. 2011;3:299–312.
Creutzig F. Economic and ecological views on climate change mitigation with bioenergy and negative emissions. GCB Bioenerg. 2014. doi:10.1111/gcbb.12235.
Fargione J, Hill J, Tilman D, Polasky S, Hawthorne P. Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt. Science. 2008;319(5867):1235–8.
Orfield ND, Keoleian GA, Love NG. A GIS based national assessment of algal bio-oil production potential through flue gas and wastewater co-utilization. Biomass Bioenerg. 2014;63:76–85.
Slegers PM, Leduc S, Wijffels RH, van Straten G, van Boxtel AJB. Logistic analysis of algae cultivation. Bioresour Technol. 2015;179:314–22.
Cheng JJ, Timilsina GR. Status and barriers of advanced biofuel technologies: a review. Renew Energy. 2011;36(12):3541–9.
Clarens AF, Resurreccion EP, White MA, Colosi LM. Environmental life cycle comparison of algae to other bioenergy feedstocks. Environ Sci Technol. 2010;44(5):1813–9.
Duong VT, Ahmed F, Thomas-Hall SR, Quigley S, Nowak E, Schenk PM. High protein-and high lipid-producing microalgae from northern australia as potential feedstock for animal feed and biodiesel. Front Bioeng Biotechnol. 2015;3:53.
Becker EW. Micro-algae as a source of protein. Biotechnol Adv. 2007;100(1):178–81.
Van Emon ML, Loy DD, Hansen SL. Determining the preference, in vitro digestibility, in situ disappearance, and grower period performance of steers fed a novel algae meal derived from heterotrophic microalgae. J Anim Sci. 2015;93:3121–9.
Belay A, Kato T, Ota Y. Spirulina (arthrospira): potential application as an animal feed supplement. J Appl Phycol. 1996;8:303–11.
Spolaore P, Joannis-Cassan C, Duran E, Isambert A. Commercial applications of microalgae. J Biosci Bioeng. 2006;101(2):87–96.
Becker W. Microalgae in human and animal nutrition. In: Richmond A, editor. Handbook of microalgal culture: biotechnology and applied phycology. Oxford: Blackwell; 2004. p. 312–51.
Huntley ME, Johnson ZI, Brown SL, Sills DL, Gerber L, Archibald I, Machesky SC, Granados J, Beal C, Greene CH. Demonstrated large-scale production of marine microalgae for fuels and feed. Algal Res. 2015;10:249–65.
Walsh, B. The FeliX Model. 2015. http://www.felixmodel.org. Accessed 10 Oct 2015.
Rydzak F, Obersteiner M, Kraxner F, Fritz S, McCallum I. Felix3—Impact Assessment Model. Technical report, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (2013). Available for download at http://www.felixmodel.com.
Global Energy Assessment Toward a sustainable future. Technical report, IIASA, Laxenburg(2012)
Speedy AW. Overview of world feed protein needs and supply. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome (2004) pp. 9–27.
Wise M, Dooley J, Luckow P, Calvin K, Kyle P. Agriculture, land use, energy and carbon emission impacts of global biofuel mandates to mid-century. Appl Energy. 2014;114:763–73.
Gerland P, et al. World population stabilization unlikely this century. Science. 2014;346(6206):234–7.
FAOSTAT Database. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome 2015. http://faostat3.fao.org. Accessed 18 Oct 2015.
Vuuren DP, et al. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Change. 2011:109:5–31.
Herrero M, Havlik P, McIntire J, Palazzo A, Valin H. African livestock futures: realizing the potential of livestock for food security, poverty reduction and the environment in Sub-Saharan Africa (2014).
Smith P, Gregory PJ, Van Vuuren D, Obersteiner M, Havlík P, Rounsevell M, Woods J, Stehfest E, Bellarby J. Competition for land. Philos Trans R Soc B Biol Sci. 2010;365(1554):2941–57.
Gibbs HK, et al. Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2010; 107:16732–7.
Fuss S, et al. Betting on negative emissions. Nat Clim Change. 2014;4:850–3.
Liska AJ, et al. Biofuels from crop residue can reduce soil carbon and increase CO2 emissions. Nat Clim Change. 2014;4(5):398–401.
Schulze E-D, Körner C, Law BE, Haberl H, Luyssaert S. Large-scale bioenergy from additional harvest of forest biomass is neither sustainable nor greenhouse gas neutral. GCB Bioenerg. 2012;4(6):611–6.
World Energy Outlook Fossil Fuel Subsidy Database. International Energy Agency, Paris. 2014. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energysubsidies/fossilfuelsubsidydatabase/. Accessed 22 Oct 2015.
Commodity Price Data. The World Bank Group, Washington, DC. 2015. http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/commodity-price-data. Accessed 20 Oct 2015.
Newbold T, Hudson LN, Hill SL, Contu S, Lysenko I, Senior RA, Börger L, Bennett DJ, Choimes A, Collen B, et al. Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity. Nature. 2015;520(7545):45–50.
Bathiany S, Claussen M, Brovkin V, Raddatz T, Gayler V. Combined biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of large-scale forest cover changes in the MPI earth system model. Biogeosciences. 2010;7(5):1383–99.
Key World Energy Statistics 2013. International Energy Agency, Paris. 2013. http://www.iea.org. Accessed 1 Oct 2015.
Boden TA, et al. Global, regional, and national fossil-fuel CO\(_2\) emissions. Technical report, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy (2013)