New evidence of agriculture as an underdeveloped sector of the U.S. economy
Tóm tắt
The most frequently used form of macroeconomic model at the state and also sub-state levels has been input-output analysis. A principal problem of input-output studies has been the high cost of constructing transaction tables describing economic flows in the model. As an alternative, this paper develops an econometric inter-industry model to quantify the linkages between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors of state and sub-state economies. The model is estimated for the 48 contiguous states, and value added multipliers are calculated for agriculture and basic industries. In contrast to conventional views, the results from this study indicate that, at the margin, a majority of the states are over-industrialized and underdeveloped in agriculture. Increased agricultural output without significant increases in costs would be relatively more important than additional production in basic industries. This situation is no doubt new, resulting from the current structure of the U.S. economy.
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