Multiseason evaluation of the MM5, COAMPS and WRF over southeast United States
Tóm tắt
Three models, MM5, COAMPS, and WRF, have been applied for the warm season in 2003 and the cool season in 2003–2004 to evaluate their performances. All models run over the same domain area covering the north Gulf Mexico and southeastern United States (US) region with the same spatial resolution of 27 km. It was found that the temporal variations of the mean error distribution and strength at 24 and 36 h were rather weak for surface temperature, sea level pressure, and surface wind speed for all models. A warm bias in surface temperature forecasts dominated over land during the warm season, whereas a cool bias existed during the cool season. The MM5 and WRF produced negative biases of sea level pressure during the warm season and positive biases during the cool season while the COAMPS yielded a similar distribution of sea level pressure biases during both seasons. During both seasons, similar surface wind speed biases produced by each model included a high wind speed forecast over most areas by MM5 while the COAMPS and WRF yielded weak surface winds over the western Plains and stronger surface winds over the eastern Plains. Root-mean-squared errors revealed that the forecast of surface temperature, sea level pressure, and surface wind speed were degraded with the increase of forecast time. For rainfall evaluation, it was found that the MM5 underpredicted seasonal precipitation while the COAMPS and WRF overpredicted. The bias scores revealed that the MM5 yielded an underprediction of the coverage of precipitation areas, especially for heavier rainfall events. The MM5 presented the lower threat score at lighter rainfall events compared to the COAMPS and WRF. For moderate and heavier thresholds, all models lacked forecast accuracy. The WRF accuracy in predicting precipitation was heavily dependent upon the performance of the selected cumulus parameterization scheme. Use of the Grell–Devenyi and Bette–Miller–Janjic schemes helps suppress precipitation overprediction.
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