Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: the role of specialist predators

Theoretical Ecology - Tập 3 - Trang 97-111 - 2009
Rebecca Tyson1, Sheena Haines1, Karen E. Hodges2
1Mathematics, Statistics and Physics, University of British Columbia Okanagan, Vancouver, Canada
2Biology and Physical Geography, University of British Columbia Okanagan, Vancouver, Canada

Tóm tắt

Mathematical models of the snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) population cycles in the boreal forest have largely focused on the interaction between a single specialist predator and its prey. Here, we consider the role that other hare predators play in shaping the cycles, using a predator–prey model for up to three separate specialist predators. We consider the Canada lynx, coyote (Canis latrans) and great horned owl (Bubo virginianus). Our model improves on past modelling efforts in two ways: (1) our model solutions more closely represent the boreal hare and predator cycles with respect to the cycle period, maximum and minimum hare densities and maximum and minimum predator densities for each predator, and (2) our model sheds light on the role each specialist plays in regulation of the hare cycle, in particular, the dynamics of the raptor appear to be crucial for characterising the low hare densities correctly.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Boonstra R, Krebs CJ, Stenseth NC (1998) Population cycles in small mammals: the problem of explaining the low phase. Ecol 79:147–1488 Boulanger JG, Krebs CJ (1996) Robustness of capture-recapture estimators to sample biases in a cyclic snowshoe hare population. J Appl Ecol 33:530–542 Boutin S, Krebs CJ, Boonstra R, Dale MRT, Hannon SJ, Martin K, Sinclair ARE, Smith JNM, Turkington R, Blower M, Byrom A, Doyle FI, Doyle C, Hik D, Hofer L, Hubbs A, Karels T, Murray DL, Nams V, O’Donoghue M, Rohner C, Schweiger S (1995) Population changes in the vertebrate community during a snowshoe hare cycle in Canada’s boreal forest. Oikos 74:69–80 Dumont A, Crete M, Ouellet JP, Huot J, Lamoureux J (2000) Population dynamics of northern white-tailed deer during mild winters: evidence of regulation by food competition. Can J Zool-Revue Canadienne de Zoologie 78(5):764–776 Elton C, Nicholson M (1942) The ten-year cycle in numbers of the lynx in Canada. J Anim Ecol 11(2):215–244 Ginzburg LR, Jensen CXJ (2004) Rules of thumb for judging ecological theories. Trends Ecol Evol 19(3):121–126 Hanski I, Korpimäki E (1995) Microtine rodent dynamics in the northern Europe: parameterized models for the predator-prey interaction. Ecol 76:840–850 Hodges KE, Krebs CJ, Hik DS, Stefan CL, Gillis EA, Doyle CE (2001) Snowshoe hare demography. In: Krebs CJ, Boutin S, Boonstra R (eds) Ecosystem dynamics of the boreal forest: the Kluane project, chapter 8. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 141–178 Hodges KE, Krebs CJ, Sinclair ARE (1999) Snowshoe hare demography during a cyclic population low. J Anim Ecol 68:581–594 Holling CS (1965) The functional response of predators to prey density and its role in mimicry and population regulation. Mem Entomol Soc 45:1–60 Inchausti P, Ginzburg L (2002) Using the phase shift for assessing the causation of population cycles. Ecol Model 152:89–102 Keith LB, Cary JR, Rongstad OJ, Brittingham MC (1984) Demography and ecology of a declining snowshoe hare population. Wildl Monogr 90:1–43 King AA, Schaffer WM (2001) The geometry of a population cycle: a mechanistic model of snowshoe hare demography. Ecol 82:814–830 Korpimäki E, Brown PR, Jacob J, Pech RP (2004) The puzzles of population cycles and outbreaks of small mammals solved? Bioscience 54:1071–1079 Korpimaki E, Krebs CJ (1996) Predation and population cycles of small mammals. Bioscience 46(10):754–765 Korpimäki E, Norrdahl K (1991a) Do breeding avian predators dampen population fluctuations of small mammals? Oikos 62:195–208 Korpimäki E, Norrdahl K (1991b) Numerical and functional responses of kestrels, short-eared owls, and long-eared owls to vole densities. Ecol 72:814–826 Krebs CJ, Boonstra R, Boutin S, Sinclair ARE (2001a) What drives the 10-year cycle of snowshoe hares? Bioscience 51:25–35 Krebs CJ, Boutin S, Boonstra R (eds) (2001b) Ecosystem dynamics of the Boreal forest: the Kluane project. Oxford University Press, Oxford MacLulich DA (1957) The place of change in population processes. J Wildl Manage 21(3):293–299 Mills LS, Griffin PG, Hodges KE, McKelvey K, Ruggiero L, Henderson C, Ulizio T (2005) Pellet count indices compared to mark-recapture estimates for evaluating snowshoe hare density. J Wildl Manage 69:1053–1062 Mosnier A, Boisjoly D, Courtois R, Ouellet JP (2008) Extensive predator space use can limit the efficacy of a control program. J Wildl Manage 72(2):483–491 Nellis CH, Keith LB (1976) Population dynamics of coyotes in central Alberta, 1964–68. J Wildl Manage 40(3):389–399 O’Donoghue M, Boutin S, Krebs CJ, Zultea G, Murray DL, Hofer EJ (1998) Functional responses of coyotes and lynx to the snowshoe hare cycle. Ecol 79:1193–1208 O’Donoghue M, Boutin S, Murray DL, Krebs CJ, Hofer EJ, Breitenmoser U, Breitenmoser-Würsten C, Zuleta G, Doyle C, Nams BO (2001) Coyotes and Lynx. In: Krebs CJ, Boutin S, Boonstra R (eds) Ecosystem dynamics of the Boreal forest: the Kluane project, chapter 13. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 275–324 Patterson BR, Messier F (2001) Social organization and space use of coyotes in eastern Canada relative to prey distribution and abundance. J Mammal 82(2):463–477 Rohner C, Doyle FL, Smith JNM (2001) Great Horned Owls. In: Krebs CJ, Boutin S, Boonstra R (eds) Ecosystem dynamics of the Boreal forest: the Kluane project, chapter 15. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 339–376 Royama T (1992) Analytical population dynamics. Chapman and Hall, London Ruesink JL, Hodges KE (2001) Trophic mass flow models of the Kluane boreal forest ecosystem. In: Krebs CJ, Boutin S, Boonstra R (eds) Ecosystem dynamics of the Boreal forest. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 463–490 Ruggerio LF, Aubry KB, Buskirk SW, Koehler GM, Krebs CJ, McKelvey KS, Squires JR (2000) Ecology and conservation of lynx in the United States. University Press of Colorado, Niwot Schaffer WM, Pederson BS, Moore BK, Skarpaas O, King AA, Bronnikova TV (2001) Sub-harmonic resonance and multi-annual oscillations in northern mammals: a non-linear dynamical systems perspective. Chaos, Solitons Fractals 12:251–264 Sokol-Hessner L, Schmitz O (2002) Linearity in the aggregate effects of multiple predators in a food web. Ecol Lett 5:168–172 Stenseth NC, Falck W, Bjørnstad ON, Krebs CJ (1997) Population regulation in snowshoe hare and canadian lynx: asymmetric food web configurations between hare and lynx. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 94:5147–5152 Stenseth NC, Falck W, Chan KS, Bjørnstad ON, O’Donoghue M, Tong H, Boonstra R, Boutin S, Krebs CJ, Yoccoz NG (1998) From patterns to processes: phase and density dependencies in the canadian lynx cycle. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 95:15430–15435 Stone L, He D (2007) Chaotic oscillations and cycles in multi-trophic ecological systems. J Theor Biol 248:382–390 Strohm S, Tyson R (2009) The effect of habitat fragmentation on cyclic population dynamics: a theoretical study. Bull Math Biol 71(6):1323 Turchin P (2003) Complex population dynamics: a theoretical/empirical synthesis. Princeton University Press, Princeton Turchin P, Hanski I (1997) An empirically based model for latitudinal gradient in vole population dynamics. Am Nat 149:842–874 Vik JO, Brinch CN, Boutin S, Stenseth NC (2008) Interlinking hare and lynx dynamics using a century’s worth of annual data. Popul Ecol 50:267–274 Windberg LA (1995) Demography of a high-density coyote population. Can J Zool 73:942–954 Zhang Z, Tao Y, Li Z (2007) Factors affecting hare-lynx dynamics in the classic time series of the Hudson Bay Company, Canada. Clim Res 34:83–89