Modelling epidemic growth models for lumpy skin disease cases in Thailand using nationwide outbreak data, 2021–2022

Acharya, 2020, First outbreak of lumpy skin disease in Nepal, Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 67, 2280, 10.1111/tbed.13815 Aleksandr, 2020, Non-vector-borne transmission of lumpy skin disease virus, Scientific Reports, 10, 7436, 10.1038/s41598-020-64029-w Almeshal, 2020, Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in Kuwait using compartmental and logistic regression models, Applied Sciences, 10, 3402, 10.3390/app10103402 Anwar, 2022, Lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Africa, Europe, and Asia (2005-2022): Multiple change point analysis and time series forecast, Viruses, 14, 10.3390/v14102203 Arjkumpa, 2022, The first lumpy skin disease outbreak in Thailand (2021): Epidemiological features and spatio-temporal analysis, Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 8, 10.3389/fvets.2021.799065 Aviv-Sharon, 2020, Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Asia, Infectious Disease Modelling, 5, 502, 10.1016/j.idm.2020.07.003 Azeem, 2022, Lumpy skin disease is expanding its geographic range: A challenge for Asian livestock management and food security, The Veterinary Journal, 279, 10.1016/j.tvjl.2021.105785 Beard, 2016, Lumpy skin disease: A direct threat to Europe, The Veterinary Record, 178, 557, 10.1136/vr.i2800 Björck, 1996, Numerical methods for least squares problems, Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics van den Bos, 2007 Chowell, 2014, Is West Africa approaching a catastrophic phase or is the 2014 Ebola epidemic slowing down? Different models yield different answers for Liberia, PLoS Currents, 6 Ciufolini, 2020, Mathematical prediction of the time evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy by a Gauss error function and Monte Carlo simulations, European Physical Journal Plus, 135, 355, 10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00383-y Conn, 2000 Cooper, 2020, A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 139, 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110057 Cramer, 2004, The early origins of the logit model, Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, 35, 613, 10.1016/j.shpsc.2004.09.003 Das, 2021, An updated review on lumpy skin disease: Perspective of Southeast Asian countries, Journal of Advanced Biotechnology and Experimental Therapeutics, 4, 322, 10.5455/jabet.2021.d133 van den Driessche, 2017, Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models, Infectious Disease Modelling, 2, 288, 10.1016/j.idm.2017.06.002 El Aferni, 2021, Mathematical model of Boltzmann's sigmoidal equation applicable to the spreading of the coronavirus (COVID-19) waves, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 40400, 10.1007/s11356-020-11188-y Gavin, 2022 Gupta, 1998, Peak decomposition using Pearson type VII function, Journal of Applied Crystallography, 31, 474, 10.1107/S0021889897011047 Gupta, 2020, A review: Lumpy skin disease and its emergence in India, Veterinary Research Communications, 44, 111, 10.1007/s11259-020-09780-1 Hasib, 2021, Lumpy skin disease outbreak in cattle population of Chattogram, Bangladesh, Veterinary Medicine and Science, 7, 1616, 10.1002/vms3.524 Holland, 1992, Genetic algorithms, Scientific American, 267, 66, 10.1038/scientificamerican0792-66 Kapanoglu, 2007, Genetic algorithms in parameter estimation for nonlinear regression models: An experimental approach, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 77, 851, 10.1080/10629360600688244 Kyurkchiev, 2019, A note on the power law logistic model, AIP Conference Proceedings, 2159, 10.1063/1.5127484 Lahcene, 2013, On Pearson families of distributions and its applications, African Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science Research, 6, 108 Leehter, 1994, Nonlinear parameter estimation via the genetic algorithm, IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 42, 927, 10.1109/78.285655 Lee, 2018, Transmission dynamics and control strategies assessment of avian influenza A (H5N6) in the Philippines, Infectious Disease Modelling, 3, 35, 10.1016/j.idm.2018.03.004 Li, 2020, Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19, Infectious Disease Modelling, 5, 282, 10.1016/j.idm.2020.03.002 Lu, 2021, Lumpy skin disease outbreaks in China, since 3 August 2019, Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 68, 216, 10.1111/tbed.13898 Malavika, 2021, Forecasting COVID-19 epidemic in India and high incidence states using SIR and logistic growth models, Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health, 9, 26, 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.06.006 Marquardt, 1963, An algorithm for least-squares estimation of nonlinear parameters, Journal of the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 11, 431, 10.1137/0111030 Mat, 2021, Determination of production losses related to lumpy skin disease among cattle in Turkey and analysis using SEIR epidemic model, BMC Veterinary Research, 17, 300, 10.1186/s12917-021-02983-x Namazi, 2021, Lumpy skin disease, an emerging transboundary viral disease: A review, Veterinary Medicine and Science, 7, 888, 10.1002/vms3.434 Nuño, 2007 Pang, 2021, Monitoring the impact of movement control order (MCO) in flattening the cummulative daily cases curve of COVID-19 in Malaysia: A generalized logistic growth modeling approach, Infectious Disease Modelling, 6, 898, 10.1016/j.idm.2021.07.004 Pan, 1995 Pell, 2018, Using phenomenological models for forecasting the 2015 Ebola challenge, Epidemics, 22, 62, 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.11.002 Punyapornwithaya, 2022, Spatio-temporal patterns of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in dairy farms in northeastern Thailand, Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 9, 10.3389/fvets.2022.957306 Salvador, 2020, Evaluation of strategies using simulation model to control a potential outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza among poultry farms in Central Luzon, Philippines, PLoS One, 15, 10.1371/journal.pone.0238815 Sariya, 2022, Molecular detection and characterization of lumpy skin disease viruses from outbreaks in Thailand in 2021, Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 69, e2145, 10.1111/tbed.14552 Singhla, 2022, Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of lumpy skin disease virus collected from outbreaks in northern Thailand in 2021, Veterinary Sciences, 9, 194, 10.3390/vetsci9040194 Sprygin, 2019, Transmission of lumpy skin disease virus: A short review, Virus Research, 269, 10.1016/j.virusres.2019.05.015 Suwankitwat, 2022, Rapid spread and genetic characterisation of a recently emerged recombinant lumpy skin disease virus in Thailand, Veterinary Sciences, 9, 542, 10.3390/vetsci9100542 Symonds, 2011, A brief guide to model selection, multimodel inference and model averaging in behavioural ecology using Akaike's information criterion, Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology, 65, 13, 10.1007/s00265-010-1037-6 Tran, 2021, Lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Vietnam, 2020, Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 68, 977, 10.1111/tbed.14022 Triambak, 2021, A new logistic growth model applied to COVID-19 fatality data, Epidemics, 37, 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100515 Tuppurainen, 2012, Review: Lumpy skin disease: An emerging threat to Europe, the Middle East and Asia, Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 59, 40, 10.1111/j.1865-1682.2011.01242.x Wahab, 2017, Peak shapes and their measurements: The need and the concept behind total peak shape analysis, LCGC North America, 12, 846 Wang, 2012, Richards model revisited: Validation by and application to infection dynamics, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 313, 12, 10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.07.024 Wei, 2021, Parameter estimation for grey system models: A nonlinear least squares perspective, Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 95, 10.1016/j.cnsns.2020.105653