1Department of Probability and Statistics, Sheffield University, Sheffield S3 7RH, England
Tóm tắt
Abstract Previous authors have rejected the Poisson model for association football scores in favour of the Negative Binomial. This paper, however, investigates the Poisson model further. Parameters representing the teams' inherent attacking and defensive strengths are incorporated and the most appropriate model is found from a hierarchy of models. Observed and expected frequencies of scores are compared and goodness‐of‐fit tests show that although there are some small systematic differences, an independent Poisson model gives a reasonably accurate description of football scores. Improvements can be achieved by the use of a bivariate Poisson model with a correlation between scores of 0.2.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Harville D., 1977, The use of linear‐model methodology to rate high school or college football teams, J. Amer. Statist. Ass., 72, 278, 10.1080/01621459.1977.10480991
