Modeling new-firm growth and survival with panel data using event magnitude regression

Acemoglu, 2018, Innovation, reallocation, and growth, Am. Econ. Rev., 108, 3450, 10.1257/aer.20130470 Acs, 2004, Employment growth and entrepreneurial activity in cities, Reg. Stud., 38, 911, 10.1080/0034340042000280938 Aguinis, 2013, Best-practice recommendations for defining, identifying, and handling outliers, Organ. Res. Methods, 16, 270, 10.1177/1094428112470848 Aksaray, 2018, Density dependence of entrepreneurial dynamics: competition, opportunity cost, or minimum efficient scale?, Manag. Sci., 64, 2263, 10.1287/mnsc.2016.2710 Aldrich, 1999 Andersson, 2013, Characteristics and performance of new firms and spinoffs in Sweden, Ind. Corp. Chang., 22, 245, 10.1093/icc/dts046 Anglin, 2018, The impact of collective optimism on new venture creation and growth: a social contagion perspective, Enterp. Theory Pract., 42, 390, 10.1111/etap.12256 Antonakis, 2010, On making causal claims: a review and recommendations, Leadersh. Q., 21, 1086, 10.1016/j.leaqua.2010.10.010 Antonakis, 2021, On Ignoring the Random Effects Assumption in Multilevel Models: Review, Critique, and Recommendations, Organizational Research Methods, 24, 443, 10.1177/1094428119877457 Arora, 2011, Cash-out or flameout! Opportunity cost and entrepreneurial strategy: theory, and evidence from the information security industry, Manag. Sci., 57, 1844, 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1381 Barkema, 1997, What differences in the cultural backgrounds of partners are detrimental for international joint ventures?, J. Int. Bus. Stud., 28, 845, 10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490122 Barnett, 2003, Asymmetric selection among organizations, Ind. Corp. Chang., 12, 673, 10.1093/icc/12.4.673 Barron, 1994, A time to grow and a time to die: growth and mortality of credit unions in New York City, 1914–1990, Am. J. Sociol., 100, 381, 10.1086/230541 Baum, 2004, The relationship of entrepreneurial traits, skill, and motivation to subsequent venture growth, J. Appl. Psychol., 89, 587, 10.1037/0021-9010.89.4.587 Ben-Hafaïedh C., Hamelin A. Questioning the Growth Dogma: A Replication Study. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice; 0:10422587211059991. Bennett, 2017, Firm lifecycles: linking employee incentives and firm growth dynamics, Strateg. Manag. J., 38, 2005, 10.1002/smj.2644 Bertoni, 2011, Venture capital financing and the growth of high-tech start-ups: Disentangling treatment from selection effects, Res. Policy, 40, 1028, 10.1016/j.respol.2011.03.008 Billingsley, 1995 Bradley, 2011, Swinging a double-edged sword: the effect of slack on entrepreneurial management and growth, J. Bus. Ventur., 26, 537, 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2010.03.002 Cappé, 2006 Card, 2018, Firms and labor market inequality: evidence and some theory, J. Labor Econ., 36, S13, 10.1086/694153 Carroll, 2000 Cefis, 2011, Revolving doors: entrepreneurial survival and exit, J. Evol. Econ., 21, 367, 10.1007/s00191-011-0223-7 Certo, 2016, Sample selection bias and Heckman models in strategic management research, Strateg. Manag. J., 37, 2639, 10.1002/smj.2475 Certo, 2017, A tale of two effects: using longitudinal data to compare within- and between-firm effects, Strateg. Manag. J., 38, 1536, 10.1002/smj.2586 Clougherty, 2015, 19, 286 Coad, 2007 Coad, 2010, Exploring the processes of firm growth: evidence from a vector auto-regression, Ind. Corp. Chang., 19, 1677, 10.1093/icc/dtq018 Coad, 2013, Growth paths and survival chances: an application of Gambler's Ruin theory, J. Bus. Ventur., 28, 615, 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2012.06.002 Coad, 2014, Whom do high-growth firms hire?, Ind. Corp. Chang., 23, 293, 10.1093/icc/dtt051 Coad, 2015, Are firm growth paths random? A reply to “Firm growth and the illusion of randomness”, J. Bus. Ventur. Insights, 3, 5, 10.1016/j.jbvi.2014.11.001 Coad, 2017, My first employee: an empirical investigation, Small Bus. Econ., 48, 25, 10.1007/s11187-016-9748-3 Cooper, 1994, Initial human and financial capital as predictors of new venture performance, J. Bus. Ventur., 9, 371, 10.1016/0883-9026(94)90013-2 Crawford, 2015, Power law distributions in entrepreneurship: implications for theory and research, J. Bus. Ventur., 30, 696, 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2015.01.001 Davidsson, 2006 Davidsson, 2009, Growing profitable or growing from profits: putting the horse in front of the cart?, J. Bus. Ventur., 24, 388, 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2008.04.003 Delmar, 2008, The effect of small business managers' growth motivation on firm growth: a longitudinal study, Enterp. Theory Pract., 32, 437, 10.1111/j.1540-6520.2008.00235.x Delmar, 2003, Arriving at the high-growth firm, J. Bus. Ventur., 18, 189, 10.1016/S0883-9026(02)00080-0 Delmar, 2013, Untangling the relationships among growth, profitability and survival in new firms, Technovation, 33, 276, 10.1016/j.technovation.2013.02.003 Demir, 2016, The strategic management of high-growth firms: a review and theoretical conceptualization, Long Range Plan., 50, 431, 10.1016/j.lrp.2016.09.004 Denrell, 2003, Vicarious learning, undersampling of failure, and the myths of management, Organ. Sci., 14, 227, 10.1287/orsc.14.2.227.15164 Derbyshire, 2014, Firm growth and the illusion of randomness, J. Bus. Ventur. Insights, 1–2, 8, 10.1016/j.jbvi.2014.09.003 Douglas, 2020, Using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis for a finer-grained understanding of entrepreneurship, J. Bus. Ventur., 35, 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2019.105970 Eberhart, 2017, Failure is an option: institutional change, entrepreneurial risk, and new firm growth, Organ. Sci., 28, 93, 10.1287/orsc.2017.1110 Elwert, 2014, Endogenous selection bias: the problem of conditioning on a collider variable, Annu. Rev. Sociol., 40, 31, 10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043455 Erlingsson, 2013, On the distributional properties of size, profit and growth of Icelandic firms, J. Econ. Interac. Coord., 8, 57, 10.1007/s11403-012-0103-8 Evans, 1987, Tests of alternative theories of firm growth, J. Polit. Econ., 95, 657, 10.1086/261480 Farewell, 2017, Two-part and related regression models for longitudinal data, Ann. Rev. Stat. Appl., 4, 283, 10.1146/annurev-statistics-060116-054131 Farhat, 2014 Fattoum-Guedri, 2018, The best of both worlds: can founder-CEOs overcome the rich versus king dilemma after IPO?, Strateg. Manag. J., 39, 3382, 10.1002/smj.2960 Follmer, 2018, Mental illness in the workplace: an interdisciplinary review and organizational research agenda, J. Manag., 44, 325 Foster, 2016, The slow growth of new plants: learning about demand?, Economica, 83, 91, 10.1111/ecca.12172 Friske, 2019, Regulation, new venture creation, and resource-advantage theory: an analysis of the US brewing industry, Enterp. Theory Pract., 43, 999, 10.1177/1042258718760840 Garnsey, 2006, New firm growth: exploring processes and paths, Ind. Innov., 13, 1, 10.1080/13662710500513367 Geroski, 2001, Modeling the dynamics of industry population, Int. J. Ind. Organ., 19, 1003, 10.1016/S0167-7187(01)00060-1 Gideon, 2002, Why do contractors contract? the experience of highly skilled technical professionals in a contingent labor market, Ind. Labor Relat. Rev., 55, 234, 10.1177/001979390205500203 Gielnik, 2017, How small business managers' age and focus on opportunities affect business growth: a mediated moderation growth model, J. Small Bus. Manag., 55, 460, 10.1111/jsbm.12253 Gimeno, 1997, Survival of the fittest? Entrepreneurial human capital and the persistence of underperforming firms, Adm. Sci. Q., 42, 750, 10.2307/2393656 Haeussler, 2019, Founder–inventors and their investors: spurring firm survival and growth, Strateg. Entrep. J., 13, 288, 10.1002/sej.1326 Haltiwanger, 2015, Job creation, job destruction, and productivity growth: the role of young businesses, Ann. Rev. Econ., 7, 341, 10.1146/annurev-economics-080614-115720 Hatemi-j, 2012, Asymmetric causality tests with an application, Empir. Econ., 43, 447, 10.1007/s00181-011-0484-x Headd, 2003, Redefining business success: distinguishing between closure and failure, Small Bus. Econ., 21, 51, 10.1023/A:1024433630958 Heckman, 1979, Sample selection bias as a specification error, Econometrica, 47, 153, 10.2307/1912352 Henrekson, 2010, Gazelles as job creators: a survey and interpretation of the evidence, Small Bus. Econ., 35, 227, 10.1007/s11187-009-9172-z Henrekson, 2014, Small business activity does not measure entrepreneurship, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 111, 1760, 10.1073/pnas.1307204111 Hitt, 1998, Attributes of successful and unsuccessful acquisitions of US firms, Br. J. Manag., 9, 91, 10.1111/1467-8551.00077 Hmieleski, 2009, Entrepreneurs' optimism and new venture performance: a social cognitive perspective, Acad. Manag. J., 52, 473, 10.5465/amj.2009.41330755 Holcomb, 2010, Modeling levels and time in entrepreneurship research: an illustration with growth strategies and post-IPO performance, Organ. Res. Methods, 13, 348, 10.1177/1094428109338401 Hurst, 2011, 17 Hvide, 2010, Lean and hungry or fat and content? entrepreneurs' wealth and start-up performance, Manag. Sci., 56, 1242, 10.1287/mnsc.1100.1177 Jennings, 2009, Novelty and new firm performance: the case of employment systems in knowledge-intensive service organizations, J. Bus. Ventur., 24, 338, 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2008.03.003 Jovanovic, 1982, Selection and the evolution of industry, Econometrica, 50, 649, 10.2307/1912606 Jovanovic, 1989, Entry, exit and diffusion with learning by doing, Am. Econ. Rev., 79, 690 Keil, 2009, Gems from the ashes: capability creation and transformation in internal corporate venturing, Organ. Sci., 20, 601, 10.1287/orsc.1080.0373 Khaire, 2010, Young and no money? Never mind: the material impact of social resources on new venture growth, Organ. Sci., 21, 168, 10.1287/orsc.1090.0438 Klepper, 1996, Entry, exit, growth, and innovation over the product life cycle, Am. Econ. Rev., 86, 562 Kor, 2003, Experience-based top management team competence and sustained growth, Organ. Sci., 14, 707, 10.1287/orsc.14.6.707.24867 Korunka, 2010, Personal characteristics, resources, and environment as predictors of business survival, J. Occup. Organ. Psychol., 83, 1025, 10.1348/096317909X485135 Koudstaal, 2016, Risk, uncertainty, and entrepreneurship: evidence from a lab-in-the-field experiment, Manag. Sci., 62, 2897, 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2249 Levine, 2017, Smart and illicit: who becomes an entrepreneur and do they earn more?, Q. J. Econ., 132, 963, 10.1093/qje/qjw044 Luttmer, 2010, Models of growth and firm heterogeneity, Ann. Rev. Econ., 2, 547, 10.1146/annurev.economics.102308.124410 Luttmer, 2011, On the mechanics of firm growth, Rev. Econ. Stud., 78, 1042, 10.1093/restud/rdq028 Maghsood, 2016, Detection of steering events using hidden Markov models with multivariate observations, Int. J. Veh. Syst. Model. Test., 11, 313 Mai, 2013, How on-the-job embeddedness influences new venture creation and growth, J. Small Bus. Manag., 51, 508, 10.1111/jsbm.12000 March, 1992, Variable risk preferences and the focus of attention, Psychol. Rev., 99, 172, 10.1037/0033-295X.99.1.172 Mazumdar, 2007, Statistical analysis of longitudinal psychiatric data with dropouts, J. Psychiatr. Res., 41, 1032, 10.1016/j.jpsychires.2006.09.007 McKelvie, 2010, Advancing firm growth research: a focus on growth mode instead of growth rate, Enterp. Theory Pract., 34, 261, 10.1111/j.1540-6520.2010.00375.x Mens, 2015, Age-related structural inertia: a distance-based approach, Organ. Sci., 26, 756, 10.1287/orsc.2015.0966 Meyer-Doyle, 2019, Disentangling the microfoundations of acquisition behavior and performance, Strateg. Manag. J., 40, 1733, 10.1002/smj.3069 Nofal, 2018, Biology and management: a review, critique, and research agenda, J. Manag., 44, 7 Ozcan, 2018, Growing with the market: how changing conditions during market growth affect formation and evolution of interfirm ties, Strateg. Manag. J., 39, 295, 10.1002/smj.2740 Palestrini, 2015, Firm size distribution and the survival bias, Econ. Bull., 35, 1630 Parker, 2009 Pearson, 1900, On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable in the case of a correlated system of variables is such that it can be reasonably supposed to have arisen from random sampling, 50, 157 Pfeffer, 2003 Ployhart, 2010, Longitudinal research: the theory, design, and analysis of change, J. Manag., 36, 94 Prashantham, 2010, The dynamic influence of social capital on the international growth of new ventures, J. Manag. Stud., 47, 967, 10.1111/j.1467-6486.2009.00904.x Rabiner, 1989, A tutorial on hidden Markov models and selected applications in speech recognition, 77, 257 Reichstein, 2005, Firm size and firm growth rate distributions—the case of Denmark, Ind. Corp. Chang., 14, 1145, 10.1093/icc/dth089 Reichstein, 2010, The devil dwells in the tails. A quantile regression approach to firm growth, J. Evol. Econ., 20, 219, 10.1007/s00191-009-0152-x Robinson, 2001, Entry barriers and new venture performance: a comparison of universal and contingency approaches, Strateg. Manag. J., 22, 659, 10.1002/smj.186 Rocha, 2018, Endogeneity in strategy-performance analysis: an application to initial human capital strategy and new venture performance, Organ. Res. Methods, 22, 740, 10.1177/1094428118757313 Rydén, 1998, Stylized facts of daily return series and the hidden Markov model, J. Appl. Econ., 217, 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199805/06)13:3<217::AID-JAE476>3.0.CO;2-V Schmidt, 2017, Longitudinal drop-out and weighting against its bias, BMC Med. Res. Methodol., 17, 164, 10.1186/s12874-017-0446-x Shane, 2003 Shane, 2009, Introduction to the focused issue on the biological basis of business, Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process., 110, 67, 10.1016/j.obhdp.2009.10.001 Shepherd, 2022, A call for research on the scaling of organizations and the scaling of social impact, Enterp. Theory Pract., 46, 255, 10.1177/1042258720950599 Shepherd, 2021, Creating new ventures: a review and research agenda, J. Manag., 47 Shrader, 2007, Assessing the relationship between human capital and firm performance: evidence from technology–based new ventures, Enterp. Theory Pract., 31, 893, 10.1111/j.1540-6520.2007.00206.x Sine, 2006, Revisiting burns and stalker: formal structure and new venture performance in emerging economic sectors, Acad. Manag. J., 49, 121, 10.5465/amj.2006.20785590 Singh, 2017, Corporate governance, board networks and growth in domestic and international markets: evidence from India, J. World Bus., 52, 615, 10.1016/j.jwb.2017.02.002 Snijders, 2011 Soto-Simeone, 2020, New venture survival: a review and extension, Int. J. Manag. Rev., 22, 378, 10.1111/ijmr.12229 Startz, 2016 Sterk, 2021, The nature of firm growth, Am. Econ. Rev., 111, 547, 10.1257/aer.20190748 Symeonidou, 2018, Resource orchestration in start-ups: synchronizing human capital investment, leveraging strategy, and founder start-up experience, Strateg. Entrep. J., 12, 194, 10.1002/sej.1269 Tian, 2019, Speed to legal registration and nascent venture performance: a temporal dilemma for nascent entrepreneurs in an emerging economy, J. Small Bus. Manag., 57, 476, 10.1111/jsbm.12382 Tzabbar, 2017, Beyond the startup stage: the founding team's human capital, new venture's stage of life, founder–CEO duality, and breakthrough innovation, Organ. Sci., 28, 857, 10.1287/orsc.2017.1152 Weinzimmer, 1998, Measuring organizational growth: Issues, consequences and guidelines, J. Manag., 24, 235 Wennberg, 2014, What do we really mean when we talk about ‘exit’? A critical review of research on entrepreneurial exit, Int. Small Bus. J., 32, 4, 10.1177/0266242613517126 Wennberg, 2016, Variable risk preferences in new firm growth and survival, J. Bus. Ventur., 31, 408, 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2016.05.001 Whetten, 1987, Organizational growth and decline processes, Annu. Rev. Sociol., 13, 335, 10.1146/annurev.so.13.080187.002003 Wiklund, 2003, What do they think and feel about growth? An expectancy–value approach to small business managers' attitudes toward growth, Enterp. Theory Pract., 27, 247 Wiklund, 2010, The age-effect of financial indicators as buffers against the liability of newness, J. Bus. Ventur., 25, 423, 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2008.10.011 Williams, 2017, Mixed method social network analysis: combining inductive concept development, content analysis, and secondary data for quantitative analysis, Organ. Res. Methods, 20, 268, 10.1177/1094428115610807 van Witteloostuijn, 2019, Is firm growth random? A machine learning perspective, J. Bus. Ventur. Insights, 11, 10.1016/j.jbvi.2018.e00107 Wright, 2012, Entrepreneurship and growth, Int. Small Bus. J., 31, 3, 10.1177/0266242612467359 Xu, 2019, Challenges and opportunities in the estimation of dynamic models, Organ. Res. Methods, 23, 595, 10.1177/1094428119842638 Yan, 2021, Timing is everything? Curvilinear effects of age at entry on new firm growth and survival and the moderating effect of IPO performance, J. Bus. Ventur., 36, 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2020.106020 Yang, 2012, Out of sight but not out of mind: Why failure to account for left truncation biases research on failure rates, J. Bus. Ventur., 27, 477, 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2012.01.001 Yang, 2017, “The liability of newness” revisited: theoretical restatement and empirical testing in emergent organizations, Soc. Sci. Res., 63, 36, 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2016.09.006 Zahra, 2006, Entrepreneurship and dynamic capabilities: a review, model and research agenda*, J. Manag. Stud., 43, 917, 10.1111/j.1467-6486.2006.00616.x Zhou, 2021, Intensive longitudinal data analyses with dynamic structural equation modeling, Organ. Res. Methods, 24, 219, 10.1177/1094428119833164