Modeling climatically suitable areas for soybean and their shifts across China

Agricultural Systems - Tập 192 - Trang 103205 - 2021
Jiongchao Zhao1,2, Chong Wang1,2, Xiaoyu Shi1,2, Xiaozhi Bo1,2, Shuo Li1,2, Mengfei Shang1,2, Fu Chen1,2, Qingquan Chu1,2
1College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
2Key Laboratory of Farming System, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100193, China

Tài liệu tham khảo

Allouche, 2006, Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS), J. Appl. Ecol., 43, 1223, 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x Amrit, 2018, Relationship of drought frequency and severity with range of annual temperature variation, Nat. Hazards, 92, 1199, 10.1007/s11069-018-3247-6 Bezerra, 2019, Agricultural area losses and pollinator mismatch due to climate changes endanger passion fruit production in the Neotropics, Agric. Syst., 169, 49, 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.12.002 Busby, 1991, Bioclim a bioclimate analysis and prediction system, Plant Protect. Quarter., 6, 8 Chen, 2019, Yield advantage and nitrogen fate in an additive maize-soybean relay intercropping system, Sci. Total Environ., 657, 987, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.376 Chen, 2020, Incorporating local adaptation into species distribution modeling of Paeonia mairei, an endemic plant to China, Front. Plant Sci., 10, 10.3389/fpls.2019.01717 Ding, 2016, Newly acquired knowledge on the scientific issues related to climate change over the recent 100 years in China, Chin. Sci. Bull., 61, 1029, 10.1360/N972015-00638 Duan, 2013, Dynamics of decadal changes in the distribution of double-cropping rice cultivation in China, Chin. Sci. Bull., 58, 1955, 10.1007/s11434-012-5608-y Easterling, 2000, Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts, Science, 289, 2068, 10.1126/science.289.5487.2068 Elith, 2006, Novel methods improve prediction of species distributions from occurrence data, Ecography, 29, 129, 10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x Feng, 2021, Modeling the current land suitability and future dynamics of global soybean cultivation under climate change scenarios, Field Crop Res., 263, 108069, 10.1016/j.fcr.2021.108069 Fielding, 1997, A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models, Environ. Conserv., 24, 38, 10.1017/S0376892997000088 Gao, 2017, Comparison of the potential geographical distribution of foxtail millet (Setaria italica) predicted by different models, Chin. J. Appl. Ecol., 28, 3331 Guisan, 2005, Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models, Ecol. Lett., 8, 993, 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x Han, 1991 Hanley, 1982, The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Radiology, 143, 29, 10.1148/radiology.143.1.7063747 Hannah, 2013, Climate change, wine, and conservation, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110, 6907, 10.1073/pnas.1210127110 Harrison, 2016, Modelling the sensitivity of agricultural systems to climate change and extreme climatic events, Agric. Syst., 148, 135, 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.07.006 He, 2011 He, 2015 He, 2012, The climatic suitability for maize cultivation in China, Chin. Sci. Bull., 57, 395, 10.1007/s11434-011-4807-2 He, 2016, Climate-associated distribution of summer maize in China from 1961 to 2010, Agric. Ecosyst. Environ., 232, 326, 10.1016/j.agee.2016.08.020 He, 2019, Climatic suitability and spatial distribution for summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming, Sci. Bull., 64, 690, 10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.030 He, 2020, Impacts of climate change and crop management practices on soybean phenology changes in China, Sci. Total Environ., 707, 135638, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135638 Hernandez, 2006, The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods, Ecography, 29, 773, 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2006.04700.x Hutchinson, 2007 IPCC, 2014 Ji, 2018, The effect of climate change on spring maize (Zea mays L.) Suitability across China, Sustainability, 10, 3804, 10.3390/su10103804 Jiménez-Valverde, 2012, Insights into the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as a discrimination measure in species distribution modelling, Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr., 21, 498, 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00683.x Jones, 2010, Combining local- and large-scale models to predict the distributions of invasive plant species, Ecol. Appl., 20, 311, 10.1890/08-2261.1 Justino, 2019, Assessment of economic returns by using a central pivot system to irrigate common beans during the rainfed season in Central Brazil, Agric. Water Manag., 224 Landis, 1977, The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data, Biometrics, 33, 159, 10.2307/2529310 Li, 2018, Developing sustainable cropping systems by integrating crop rotation with conservation tillage practices on the Loess Plateau, a long-term imperative, Field Crop Res., 222, 164, 10.1016/j.fcr.2018.03.027 Liu, 2020, Modelling the impacts of climate change and crop management measures on soybean phenology in China, J. Clean. Prod., 262, 121271, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121271 Liu, 2005, Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions, Ecography, 28, 385, 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2005.03957.x Liu, 2009, Characteristics of agricultural climate resources in three provinces of Northeast China under global climate change, Chin. J. Appl. Ecol., 20, 2199 Liu, 2013, Selecting thresholds for the prediction of species occurrence with presence-only data, J. Biogeogr., 40, 778, 10.1111/jbi.12058 Liu, 2013, The effects of past climate change on the northern limits of maize planting in Northeast China, Clim. Chang., 117, 891, 10.1007/s10584-012-0594-2 Liu, 2015, Shifts in the extent and location of rice cropping areas match the climate change pattern in China during 1980–2010, Reg. Environ. Chang., 15, 919, 10.1007/s10113-014-0677-x Lobo, 2008, AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models, Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr., 17, 145, 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00358.x National Bureau of Statistic, China Pan, 1983, Research on soybean climatic division in Northeast China, Soybean Sci., 1 Pan, 1984, Research on soybean climatic division in China, Soybean Sci., 169 Papier, 2019, Invasive species and carbon flux: the case of invasive beavers (Castor canadensis) in riparian Nothofagus forests of Tierra del Fuego, Chile, Clim. Chang., 153, 219, 10.1007/s10584-019-02377-x Phillips, 2006, Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions, Ecol. Model., 190, 231, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026 Qi, 2010, Effect of climatic conditions on summer soybean growth in Huaibei region, Chin. J. Agrometeorol., 31, 267 Qin, 2018, Crop rotation and N application rate affecting the performance of winter wheat under deficit irrigation, Agric. Water Manag., 210, 330, 10.1016/j.agwat.2018.08.026 Ramos, 2019, Risk of spread of tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) in tomato crops under various climate change scenarios, Agric. Syst., 173, 524, 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.03.020 Rank, 2020, Risk of the introduction of Lobesia botranain suitable areas for Vitis vinifera, J. Pest. Sci., 93, 1167, 10.1007/s10340-020-01246-2 Schaik, 1958, Effects of some environmental factors on flower production and reproductive efficiency in soybeans, Agron. J., 50, 192, 10.2134/agronj1958.00021962005000040007x Shen, 2017 Shi, 2021, Crop yield and production responses to climate disasters in China, Sci. Total Environ., 750, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141147 Sillero, 2011, What does ecological modelling model? A proposed classification of ecological niche models based on their underlying methods, Ecol. Model., 222, 1343, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.01.018 Singh, 2017, Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India, Agric. Syst., 156, 76, 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.05.009 Smith, 2016, Doubled-up legume rotations improve soil fertility and maintain productivity under variable conditions in maize-based cropping systems in Malawi, Agric. Syst., 145, 139, 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.03.008 Song, 2016, Analyzing the effects of climate factors on soybean protein, oil contents, and composition by extensive and high-density sampling in China, J. Agric. Food Chem., 64, 4121, 10.1021/acs.jafc.6b00008 Stockwell, 1999, The GARP modelling system: problems and solutions to automated spatial prediction, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 13, 143, 10.1080/136588199241391 Sun, 2012, Climatic suitability of the distribution of the winter wheat cultivation zone in China, Eur. J. Agron., 43, 77, 10.1016/j.eja.2012.05.009 Sun, 2017, Telecoupled land-use changes in distant countries, J. Integr. Agric., 16, 368, 10.1016/S2095-3119(16)61528-9 Sun, 2020, Domestic dynamics of crop production in response to international food trade: evidence from soybean imports in China, J. Land Use Sci., 15, 91, 10.1080/1747423X.2020.1742811 Swets, 1988, Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems, Science, 240, 1285, 10.1126/science.3287615 Wang, 2016, Influence of climatic change on corn and soybean in eastern Da Hinggan mountains over the last 30 years, Res. Soil Water Conserv., 23 Wang, 2020, Impacts of drought on maize and soybean production in Northeast China during the past five decades, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 17, 2459, 10.3390/ijerph17072459 Wang, 2021, Interdecadal variation of potato climate suitability in China, Agric. Ecosyst. Environ., 310, 107293, 10.1016/j.agee.2020.107293 Xiao, 2019, Improving nitrogen and water use efficiency in a wheat-maize rotation system in the North China Plain using optimized farming practices, Agric. Water Manag., 212, 172, 10.1016/j.agwat.2018.09.011 Xu, 2020, Analysis of soybean yield formation differences across different production regions in China, Agron. J., 112, 4195, 10.1002/agj2.20373 Yan, 2020, Assessment of the sustainability of different cropping systems under three irrigation strategies in the North China plain under climate change, Agric. Syst., 178, 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102745 Yang, 2020, Analysis on the evolution of soybean production patterns and regional comparative advantages in China, Terr. Nat. Resour. Study, 000, 58 Yang, 2011, The possible effect of climate warming on northern limits of cropping system and crop yield in China, Agric. Sci. China, 10, 585, 10.1016/S1671-2927(11)60040-0 Ye, 2011, Research advances in impact of climate changes on crop climatic suitability, J. Anhui Agric. Sci., 39 Yee, 1991, Generalized additive-models in plant ecology, J. Veg. Sci., 2, 587, 10.2307/3236170 Yin, 2016, Climate effects on crop yields in the northeast farming region of China during 1961–2010, J. Agric. Sci., 154, 1190, 10.1017/S0021859616000149 Yin, 2016, Impacts and adaptation of the cropping systems to climate change in the northeast farming region of China, Eur. J. Agron., 78, 60, 10.1016/j.eja.2016.04.012 Zhai, 2010, Spatial variation and trends in PDSI and SPI indices and their relation to streamflow in 10 large regions of China, J. Clim., 23, 649, 10.1175/2009JCLI2968.1 Zhang, 2014, Spatial-temporal characteristics of soybean production potential change under the background of climate change over the past 50 years in China, Prog. Geogr., 33, 1414 Zhang, 2018, Data analysis on spatial distribution of soybean germplasm resources and its relationship with climatic and meteorological factors, China Sci. Technol. Resour. Rev., 50, 55 Zhang, 2020, Principles and practices of the photo-thermal adaptability improvement in soybean, J. Integr. Agric., 19, 295, 10.1016/S2095-3119(19)62850-9 Zhao, 2016, Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change, Clim. Chang., 137, 29, 10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y Zhao, 2020, Trend of climate variation in China from 1960 to 2018 based on natural regionalization, Adv. Earth Science, 35, 750 Zhou, 2019, Ameliorated light conditions increase the P uptake capability of soybean in a relay-strip intercropping system by altering root morphology and physiology in the areas with low solar radiation, Sci. Total Environ., 688, 1069, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.344