Modeling Historical Development: Fitting a Competing Practices System to Coded Archival Data

Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences - 1999
David K. Dirlam1, Karen L. Gamble, Heidi S. Lloyd
1USA

Tóm tắt

This project used curve fitting to refine an ecological model of historical development. Dirlam (1972, 1980, and 1996) constructed multidimensional classifiers for coding sociocultural practices by using theories of children's drawing, students' writing, and developmental researchers' methods. The last involved an eleven-dimensional classifier based mostly on Danziger's (1990) insights. An NDS analysis began with Van Geert's (1991) variant of the Lotka-Volterra two-species model, which was generalized by Dirlam (1997) to many competing species, each embodying an evolutionary strategy. Excellent fits to codings of research strategies in 599 articles from Child Development and Developmental Psychology, 1969-1992, revealed chaotic growth unless suppressed by new strategies. In this paper, coding was extended to 313 new articles published from 1930-1968. A refined model using Levins' (1969) “logistic weed” produced more meaningful parameter values and suggested dynamic differences between evolutionary strategies and sociocultural practices. Statistically adequate solutions with both low growth and high growth were found. To differentiate solutions, we proposed independent experimental testing and examining the scientific meaning of parameter values. The analysis identified two novel dynamic entities: default and polarized practices. Removing the person-practice link and coding many dimensions at once extends dynamic modeling to a greatly enriched variety of cultural and historical processes.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Clayton, K. & Frey, B. (1996). Inter-and intra-trial dynamics in memory and choice. In W. Sulis & A. Combs (Eds.) Nonlinear dynamics in human behavior (pp. 90–106). Singapore: World Scientific.

Danziger, K. (1990). Constructing the subject: Historical origins of psychological research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Danziger, K., & Dzinas, K. (1997). How psychology got its variables. Canadian Psychology, 38, 43–48.

Dirlam, D. K. (1972). Most efficient chunk sizes. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 335–339.

Dirlam, D. K. (1980). Classifiers and cognitive development. In S. & C. Modgil (Eds.), Toward a theory of psychological development (pp. 465–498). Windsor, England: NFER Publishing.

Dirlam, D. K. (1996). Macrodevelopmental analysis: From open fields to culture via genres of art and developmental research. Mind, Culture, and Activity, 3, 270–289.

Dirlam, D. K. (1997). Chaos, competition, and the necessity to create. Mind, Culture, and Activity, 7, 24–41.

Epstein, J. M. & Axtell, R. (1996). Growing artificial societies: Social science from the bottom up. Washington, D. C. and Cambridge, MA: Brookings Institution Press and MIT Press.

Forrester, J. W. (1969). Urban dynamics. Portland, OR: Productivity Press.

Gigerenzer, G., Swijtink, Z., Porter, T., Daston, L., Beatty, J., & Krüger, L. (1989). The empire of chance. New York: Cambridge University Press

Guastello, S. J. & Phillippe, P. (1997). Dynamics in the development of large information exchange groups and virtual communities. Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences. 1, 123–150.

Kuhn, D. (1995) Microgenetic study of change: What has it told us? Psychological Science, 6, 133–139.

Levins, R. (1969). Some demographic and genetic consequences of environmental heterogeneity for biological control. Bulletin of the Entomological Society of America, 15, 237–240.

Lotka, A. J. (1925/1956). Elements of physical biology. Reprinted as Elements of mathematical biology. New York: Dover.

Miller, G. A. (1977). Spontaneous appentices: Children and language. New York: The Seabury Press.

Roughgarden, J. (1998). Primer of ecological theory. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall.

Schelling, T. C. (1969). Models of segregation. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 59, 488–93.

Scribner, S. & Cole, M. (1981). The psychology of literacy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Siegler, R. S. (1996). Emerging minds: The process of change in children's Thinking. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Van Geert, P. (1991). A dynamic systems model of cognitive and language growth. Psychological Review, 98, 3–53.

Volterra, V. (1926). Variazioni e fluttuazioni del numero d'individui in specie animali conviventi. Mem. Acad. Lincei, 2, 31–113.

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences

Thông tin tác giả