Model estimates of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea in the contemporary and future climate

O. P. Savchuk and F. V. Woolff, “Nitrogen and phosphorous circulation in the open Baltic,” in Study and Mathematical Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem, No. 5, Part 1: Mathematical Models (Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 1997), pp. 65–103.

BEDBaltic Environmental Database at Baltic Nest Institute. http://nest.su.se/bed

J. Bendtsen and J. L. S. Hansen, “Effects of global warming on hypoxia in the North Sea–Baltic Sea transition zone,” Ecol. Model. 264, 17–26 (2013).

R. Döscher, U. Willén, C. Jones, et al., “The development of the regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model RCAO,” Boreal Environ. Res. 7, 183–192 (2002).

K. Eilola, H. E. M. Meier and E. Almroth, “On the dynamics of oxygen, phosphorus and cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea: a model study,” J. Mar. Syst. 75, 163–184 (2009).

K. Eilola, B. G. Gustafsson, I. Kuznetsov, et al. “Evaluation of biogeochemical cycles in an ensemble of three state-of-the-art numerical models of the Baltic Sea,” J. Mar. Syst. 88, 267–284 (2011).

K. Eilola, J. Hansen, H. E. M. Meier, et al., Eutrophication Status Report of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea: A Model Study, Years 2001–2005 (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden, 2011), No. 110.

C. Gordon, C. Cooper, C. A. Senior, et al., “The simulation of SST, sea ice extent and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments,” Clim. Dyn. 16, 147–166 (2000).

B. G. Gustafsson, A Time-Dependent Coupled-Basin Model for the Baltic Sea Report C47 (Earth Sciences Centre, Göteborg University, Göteborg, 2003).

B. G. Gustafsson and H. C. Andersson, “Modeling the exchange of the Baltic Sea from the meridional atmospheric pressure difference across the North Sea,” J. Geophys. Res. 106 (19), 731–744 (2001).

B. G. Gustafsson and M. Rodriguez Medina, Technical Report “Validation Data Set compiled from Baltic Environmental Database”, V. 2, January 2011 (Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, 2011), No. 2. ISBN: 978-86655-3

B. G. Gustafsson, O. P. Savchuk, and H. E. M. Meier, Technical Report Load Scenarios for ECOSUPPORT (Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, 2011), No. 4. ISBN: 978-91-86655-03-7

J. L. S. Hansen and J. Bendtsen, “Parameterization of oxygen dynamics in the bottom water of the Baltic Sea–North Sea transition zone,” Mar. Ecol.: Progr. Ser. 481, 25–39 (2013).

HELCOM, Toward a Baltic Sea Unaffected by Eutrophication. Background Document to Helcom Ministerial Meeting, Krakow, Poland (Helsinki Commission, Helsinki, Finland, 2007).

HELCOM, Eutrophication Status of the Baltic Sea 2007–2011–A Concise Thematic Assessment, Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings (Helsinki Commission, Helsinki, Finland, 2014), No. 143.

J. H. Jungclaus, M. Botzet, H. Haak, et al., “Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM,” J. Clim. 19, 3952–3972 (2006).

H. E. M. Meier, R. Döscher, and T. Faxén, “A multiprocessor coupled ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea: application to salt inflow,” J. Geophys. Res., C: Oceans Atmos. 108 (8), 3273 (2003). doi: 10.1029/2000JC000521

H. E. M. Meier, K. Eilola, and E. Almroth, “Climaterelated changes in marine ecosystems simulated with a three-dimensional coupled biogeochemical-physical model of the Baltic Sea,” Clim. Res. 48, 31–55 (2011).

H. E. M. Meier, H. C. Andersson, K. Eilola, et al., “Hypoxia in future climates: a model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L24608 (2011). doi: 10.1029/2011GL049929

H. E. M. Meier, R. Hordoir, H. C. Andersson, et al., “Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961–2009,” Clim. Dyn. 39, 2421–2441 (2012). doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1339-7

H. E. M. Meier, B. Müller-Karulis, H. C. Andersson, et al., “Impact of climate change on ecological quality indicators and biogeochemical fluxes in the Baltic Sea: a multi-model ensemble study,” Ambio 41, 558–573 (2012). doi: 10.1007/s13280-012-0320-3

I. A. Neelov, T. R. Eremina, A. V. Isaev, et al., “A simulation of the Gulf of Finland ecosystem with 3-D model,” Proc. Est. Acad. Sci., Biol., Ecol. 52, 347–359 (2003).

T. Neumann, “Climate-change effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: a model study,” J. Mar. Syst. 81, 213–224 (2010).

T. Neumann, W. Fennel, and C. Kremp, “Experimental simulations with an ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea: a nutrient load reduction experiment,” Global Biogeochem. Cycles 16, 1033 (2002).

T. Neumann and G. Schernewski, “Eutrophication in the Baltic Sea and shifts in nitrogen fixation analyzed with a 3D ecosystem model,” J. Mar. Syst. 74, 592–602 (2008).

E. Roeckner, R. Brokopf, M. Esch, et al., “Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model,” J. Clim. 19, 3771–3791 (2006).

O. P. Savchuk, “Nutrient biogeochemical cycles in the Gulf of Riga: scaling up field studies with a mathematical model,” J. Mar. Syst. 32, 235–280 (2002).

O. P. Savchuk, “Large-scale dynamics of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea,” in Chemical Structure of Pelagic Redox Interfaces: Observation and Modeling, Ed. by E. V. Yakushev (Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2010). http://dx.doi.org/doi 10.1007/698-2010-53

O. P. Savchuk, T. R. Eremina, A. V. Isaev, and I. A. Neelov, “Response of eutrophication in the eastern Gulf of Finland to nutrient load reduction scenarios,” Hydrobiologia 629, 225–237 (2009).

O. P. Savchuk, B. G. Gustafsson, and B. Müller-Karulis, Technical Report BALTSEMa Marine Model for Decision Support within the Baltic Sea Region (Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, 2012), No. 7. ISBN: 978-91-86655-06-8

M. D. Skogen, K. Eilola, J. L. S. Hansen, et al., “Eutrophication status of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat, and the Baltic Sea in present and future climates: a model study,” J. Mar. Syst. 132, 174–184 (2014).

S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al., “Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment,” in Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007).

P. Stålnacke, A. Grimvall, K. Sundblad, and A. Tonderski, “Estimation of riverine loads of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Baltic Sea 1970–1993,” Environ. Monit. Assess. 58, 173–200 (1999).

E. Vahtera, D. Conley, B. G. Gustafsson, et al., “Internal ecosystem feedbacks enhance nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria blooms and complicate management in the Baltic Sea,” Ambio 36, 186–194 (2007).