Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Aboelata M, Bowles DS, McClelland DM (2002) GIS model for estimating dam failure life loss. In: Proceedings of the 10th engineering foundation conference on risk-based decisionmaking. Santa Barbara, pp 126–145
Abt SR, Wittler RJ, Taylor A, Love DJ (1989) Human stability in a high flood hazard zone. Water Resour Bull 25(4):881–890
Ahern M, Kovats SR, Wilkinson P, Few R, Matthies F (2005) Global health impacts of floods: epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol Revi 27:36–46
Assaf, H, Hartford DND (2002) A virtual reality approach to public protection and emergency preparedness planning in dam safety analysis. In: Proceedings of the Canadian dam association conference, Victoria
Asselman NEM (2005) Consequences of floods—damage to buildings and casualties, WL Delft Hydraulics report Q3668
Asselman NEM, Heynert K (2003) Consequences of floods: 2D hydraulic simulations for the case study area of Central Holland, Delft Cluster report DC 1-233-5
Barendregt A, van Noortwijk JM, van der Doef M, Holterman SR (2005) Determining the time available for evacuation of a dike-ring area by expert judgement. In: Proceedings of the international symposium on stochastic hydraulics (ISSH), 23–24 May, Nijmegen
Bern C, Sniezek J, Mathbor GM, Siddiqi MS, Ronsmans C, Chowdhury AMR, Choudhury AE, Islam K, Bennish M, Noji E, Glass RI (1993) Risk factors for mortality in the Bangladesh cyclone of 1991. Bull WHO 71:73–78
Berz G, Kron W, Loster T, Rauch E, Schimetschek J, Schmieder J, Siebert A, Smolka A, Wirtz A (2001) World map of natural hazards – a global view of the distribution and intensity of significant exposures. Nat Hazards 23(2–3):443–465
Boyd E (2005) Toward an empirical measure of disaster vulnerability: storm surges, New Orleans, and Hurricane Betsy. Poster presented at the 4th UCLA conference on public health and disasters, Los Angeles, 1–4 May 2005
Boyd E, Levitan M, van Heerden I (2005) Further specification of the dose-response relationship for flood fatality estimation. Paper presented at the US-Bangladesh workshop on innovation in windstorm/storm surge mitigation construction. National Science Foundation and Ministry of Disaster & Relief, Government of Bangladesh. Dhaka, 19–21 December 2005
Brown CA, Graham WJ (1988) Assessing the threat to life from dam failure. Water Resour Bull 24(6):1303–1309
CDMC (Central Disaster Management Council) (2003) Damage estimation method for the Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes. http://www.bousai.go.jp/jishin/chubou/nankai/10/sankou_siryou.pdf . Accessed January 2006
Chowdhury A, Mushtaque R, Bhuyia AU, Choudhury AY, Sen R (1993) The Bangladesh cyclone of 1991: why so many people died. Disasters 17(4):291–304
Clausen, LK (1989) Potential dam failure: estimation of consequences, and implications for planning. Unpublished M.Phil. thesis at the School of Geography and Planning at Middlesex Polytechnic collaborating with Binnie and Partners, Redhill
DeKay ML, McClelland GH (1993) Predicting loss of life in cases of dam failure and flash flood. Risk Anal 13(2):193–205
Doocy S, Rofi A, Moodie C, Spring E, Bradley S, Burnham G, Robinson C (2007) Tsunami mortality in Aceh Province. Indonesia. Bull WHO 85:273–278
Duiser JA (1989) Een verkennend onderzoek naar methoden ter bepaling van inundatieschade bij doorbraak, TNO report ref. 82-0644
EM-DAT (Emergency events database) (2004) OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database from http://www.cred.be/emdat , Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels. Accessed December 2004
Frieser B (2004) Probabilistic evacuation decision model for river floods in the Netherlands. MSc thesis, TU Delft
Graham, WJ (1999) A procedure for estimating loss of life caused by dam failure. Dam safety office report DSO-99-6
Green C (2001) Assessing vulnerability to flooding. Draft working paper
Grieve H (1959) The great tide. Waterlow & Sons Limited
Guha-Sapir D, Parry LV, Degomme O, Joshi PC, Saulina Arnold JP (2007) Risk factors for mortality and injury: post-tsunami epidemiological findings for Tamil Nadu. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Diasters (CRED) report, April 2006, Brussels, Belgium
Hajat S, Ebi KL, Kovats S, Menne B, Edwards S, Haines A (2003) The human health consequences of flooding in Europe and the implications for public health. J Appl Environ Sci Public Health 1(1):13–21
Hartford DND, Baecher GB (2004) Risk and uncertainty in dam safety. Thomas Telford Publishing, London
Hayward, JS (1986) The physiology of immersion hypothermia. In: The nature and treatment of hypothermia, University of Minnesota Press, pp 3–19
IPET (Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force) (2007) Performance evaluation of the New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana hurricane protection system—volume VII: the consequences, Final report 26 March 2007
Johnstone W, Assaf H, Sakamoto D, Hartford D (2003) Analysis of the Malpasset dam failure using GIS and engineering models. In: Proceedings of GeoTec 2003. Vancouver
Johnstone WM, Sakamoto D, Assaf H, Bourban S (2005) Architecture, modelling framework and validation of BC Hydro’s virtual reality life safety model. In: Vrijling et al (eds) Proceedings of the international symposium on stochastic hydraulics, Nijmegen, 23–24 May 2005
Jonkman SN (2001) Overstromingsrisico’s: een onderzoek naar de toepasbaarheid van risicomaten. MSc. Thesis, TU Delft
Jonkman SN (2004) Methode voor de bepaling van het aantal slachtoffers ten gevolge van een grootschalige overstroming. DWW report DWW-2004-042
Jonkman SN (2005) Global perspectives of loss of human life caused by floods. Nat Hazards 34:151–175
Jonkman SN (2007) Loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment—theory and applications. PhD thesis, Delft University
Jonkman SN, Cappendijk P (2006) Veiligheid Nederland in kaart – inschatting van het aantal slachtoffers ten gevolge van overstroming, DWW report DWW-2006-012
Jonkman SN, Kelman I (2005) An analysis of causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths. Disasters 29(1):75–97
Jonkman SN, van Gelder PHAJM, Vrijling JK (2002) Loss of life models for sea- and river floods. In: Wu et al (eds) Proceedings of flood defence, vol 1. Science Press, New York Ltd., New York, USA, pp 196–206
JWF (Japan Water Forum) (2005) Typhoon Isewan (Vera) and its lessons. Japan Water Forum report
Karvonen RA, Hepojoki A, Huhta HK, Louhio A (2000) The use of physical models in dam-break analysis, RESCDAM Final Report. Helsinki University of Technology, Helsinki
Kato F (2002) A review of flood damage estimation in Japan. Draft working document
Kelman I (2002) Physical vulnerability of residential properties in coastal, eastern England. PhD dissertation, Cambridge University
Kelman I (2003) CURBE fact sheet 3: U.K. Deaths from the 1953 Storm Surge. Version 3, 5 July 2003. http://www.arct.cam.ac.uk/curbe/CURBEFactSheet3UK1953Deaths.doc . Accessed August 2003
Kok M, Huizinga HJ, Meijerink TC, Vrouwenvelder ACWM, Vrisou van Eck N (2002) Standaardmethode 2002: Schade en slachtoffers als gevolg van overstromingen. HKV and TNO Report PR582.10
Kok M, Huizinga HJ, Vrouwenvelder ACWM, van den Braak WEW (2005) Standaardmethode 2005 schade en slachtoffers als gevolg van overstromingen. HKV report PR999.10
Koshimura S, Katada T, Mofjeld HO, Kawata Y (2006) A method for estimating casualties due to the tsunami inundation flow. Nat Hazards 39:265–274
Lind N, Hartford D (2000) Probability of human instability in a flooding: a hydrodynamic model. In: Melchers E, Stewart MG (eds) Proceedings of ICASP 8, applications of statistics and probability, Balkema, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, pp 1151–1156
Lind N, Hartford D, Assaf H (2004) Hydrodynamic models of human instability in a flood. J Am Water Resour Assoc 40(1):89–96
McClelland DM, Bowles DS (1999) Life-loss estimation: what can we learn from case histories. In: Proceedings of the Australian committee on large dams (ANCOLD) annual meeting. Jindabyne, November 1999
McClelland DM, Bowles DS (2002) Estimating life loss for dam safety risk assessment—a review and new approach. IWR report 02-R-3
Nishikiori N, Abe T, Costa DGM, Dharmaratne SD, Kunii O, Moji K (2006) Who died as a result of the tsunami? Risk factors of mortality among internally displaced persons in Sri Lanka: a retrospective cohort analysis. BMC Public Health No. 6, Art. No. 73, 20 March 2006
Penning-Rowsell E, Floyd P, Ramsbottom D, Surendran S (2005) Estimating injury and loss of life in floods: A deterministic framework. Nat Hazards 36(1–2):43–64
Pollard M (1978) North Sea surge: the story of the east coast floods of 1953. Terence Dalton Limited, Lavenham and Suffolk
Ramsbottom D, Floyd P, Penning-Rowsell E (2003) Flood risks to people—phase 1. R&D Technical report FD2317TR
Ramsbottom D, Wade S, Bain V., Hassan M, Penning-Rowsell E, Wilson T, Fernandez A, House M, Floyd P (2004) R&D outputs: flood risks to people. Phase 2. FD2321/IR2. Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs/Environment Agency
Reiter P (2001) Rescdam: loss of life caused by dam failure, the Rescdam LOL method and its application to Kyrkosjarvi dam in Seinajoki (summary of the final report), 19 June 2001
Rijkswaterstaat (2006) Flood risks and safety in the Netherlands—full report. Rijkswaterstaat report DWW 2006-014. ISBN 90-369-5604-9
Rofi A, Doocy S, Robinson C (2006) Tsunami mortality and displacement in Aceh province, Indonesia. Disasters 30(3):340–350
Roos W (2003) Damage to buildings. Delft Cluster report DC1-233-9
Simonovic SP, Ahmad S (2005) Computer-based model for flood evacuation emergency planning. Nat Hazards 24(1):25–51
Slager K (1992) De ramp – een reconstructie – 200 ooggetuigen over de watersnood van 1953, verhalen om nooit te vergeten. Goes: De koperen tuin
Suetsugi K (1998) Control of floodwater and improvements of evacuation system for floodplain management. In: Fukuoka S (ed) Floodplain risk management, Proceedings of an international workshop. Hiroshima, 11–13 November 1996, pp 191–207
Sugimoto T, Murakami H, Yozuki K, Nishikawa K, Shimada T (2003) A human damage prediction method for tsunami disasters incorporating evacuation activities. Nat Hazards 29(3):585–600
Summers D (1978) The east coast floods. David & Charles (Publishers) Limited, London
Takikawa K (2001) Storm surge damage caused by Typhoon No. 9918 in the area of Shiranui Sea, JSCE publication. http://www.jsce-int.org/civil_engineering/2001/typhoon.pdf . Accessed December 2005
Tsuchiya Y, Kawata Y (1981) Risk to life, warning systems, and protective construction against past storm surges in Osaka Bay. J Nat Disaster Sci 3(1):33–56
Tsuchiya Y, Yasuda T (1980) High tide and life risk, refuge warning in relation to the Ise Bay Typhoon. J Nat Disaster Sci 2(2):27–60
USBR (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Department of the Interior) (1988) Downstream hazard classification guidelines. Acer technical memorandum no. 11
Van den Hengel D (2006) Slachtoffers bij overstromingen: analyse van een slachtoffermodel aan de hand van de Watersnoodramp van 1953 en overstromingssimulaties. MSc thesis, Delft University
Van der Doef M, Cappendijk P (2006) Veiligheid Nederland in Kaart – modellering en analyse van evacuatie. Report DWW-2006-007. Rijkswaterstaat DWW
Van Manen SE, Brinkhuis M (2005) Quantitative flood risk assessment for polders. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 90(2–3):229–237
Van Zuilekom KM, van Maarsseveen MFAM, van der Doef MR (2005) A decision support system for preventive evacuation of people. In: Proceedings of the first international symposium on geo-information for disaster management. Delft, the Netherlands, 21–23 March 2005, Springer Verlag
Vrouwenvelder ACWM, Steenhuis CM (1997) Tweede waterkeringen Hoeksche Waard, berekening van het aantal slachtoffers bij verschillende inundatiescenario’s. Report TNO 97-CON-R0332
Waarts P (1992) Methode voor de bepaling van het aantal doden als gevolg van inundatie. Report TNO B-91-1099
Watson D, Serrer M, Crookshank N (2001) BC Hydro life safety model—a two dimensional model for estimating dam breach survival probabilities. Draft Technical Report Canadian Hydraulics Centre
WHO (World Health Organization) (2002) Floods: climate change and adaptation strategies for human health. WHO, Copenhagen
Wood M (2007) Wentworth river flood hazard assessment. Environment Waikito Technical Report 2007/16 (draft)