Method for moderation: measuring lifetime risk of alcohol‐attributable mortality as a basis for drinking guidelines

International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research - Tập 17 Số 3 - Trang 141-151 - 2008
Jürgen Rehm1,2,3,4, Robin Room5,6, Benjamin J. Taylor1,3
1Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Canada
2Clinical Psychology & Psychotherapy, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
3Public Health Sciences, University of Toronto, Canada
4WHO Collaborating Centre for Substance Abuse, Zurich, Switzerland
5AER Centre for Alcohol Policy Research, Turning Point Alcohol and Drug Centre, Fitzroy, Australia
6School of Population Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

Tóm tắt

AbstractThe objective of this paper was to determine separately the lifetime risk of drinking alcohol for chronic disease and acute injury outcomes as a basis for setting general population drinking guidelines for Australia. Relative risk data for different levels of average consumption of alcohol were combined with age, sex, and disease‐specific risks of dying from an alcohol‐attributable chronic disease. For injury, combinations of the number of drinks per occasion and frequency of drinking occasions were combined to model lifetime risk of death for different drinking pattern scenarios. A lifetime risk of injury death of 1 in 100 is reached for consumption levels of about three drinks daily per week for women, and three drinks five times a week for men. For chronic disease death, lifetime risk increases by about 10% with each 10‐gram (one drink) increase in daily average alcohol consumption, although risks are higher for women than men, particularly at higher average consumption levels. Lifetime risks for injury and chronic disease combine to overall risk of alcohol‐attributable mortality. In terms of guidelines, if a lifetime risk standard of 1 in 100 is set, then the implications of the analysis presented here are that both men and women should not exceed a volume of two drinks a day for chronic disease mortality, and for occasional drinking three or four drinks seem tolerable. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.1177/009145090002700403

Babor T, 2003, Research and Public Policy

10.2105/AJPH.67.7.679

10.1080/00952990601087455

Bondy S, 1999, Low‐risk drinking guidelines: scientific evidence, Can J Public Health, 90, 264, 10.1007/BF03404129

10.2471/BLT.05.027466

10.1111/j.1360-0443.1996.tb03155.x

10.15288/jsa.1987.48.380

10.1046/j.1360-0443.1999.9410155111.x

10.1016/j.ypmed.2003.11.027

10.1177/009145099402100113

10.1046/j.1360-0443.1996.9168158.x

Dubowski K, 1976, Human pharmacokinetics of ethanol I. Peak blood concentrations and elimination in male and female subjects, Alc Tech Rep, 5, 55

10.1111/j.1530-0277.1998.tb03695.x

Ezzati M, 2004, Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors

10.1080/16066350500497983

Gross L, 1984, The Effects of Social Drinking

10.15288/jsa.2005.66.413

10.1016/j.annepidem.2007.01.022

Harrison K, 1994, Risk Science and Politics: Regulating Toxic Substances in Canada and the United States, 10.1515/9780773565050

10.1177/009145099402100203

10.15288/jsa.1995.56.513

International Center for Alcohol Policy (ICAP), 2003, International Drinking Guidelines, ICAP Report No. 14

KiferK(2000). Is cycling dangerous? [online] Available at:http://www.kenkifer.com/bikepages/health/risks.htm(accessed 24 December 2007).

10.1016/j.annepidem.2007.01.014

National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC)(2001). Australian Alcohol Guidelines: Health Risks and Benefits. Canberra: NHMRC [online] Available at:http://www.nhmrc.gov.au/publications/synopses/_files/ds9.pdf(accessed 21 December 2007).

National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), 2004, Australian Drinking Water Guidelines

National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (NHMRC)(2007). The Australian Standard Drink. Canberra: Department of Health and Ageing [online] Available at:http://www.alcohol.gov.au/internet/alcohol/publishing.nsf/Content/standard(accessed 21 December 2007).

National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA), 1997, Alcohol Alert: Alcohol Metabolism, Report No. 35, PH 371

National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA), 1974, Alcohol and Health: New Knowledge, DHEW Publication No. (ADM)75–212

NorfolkA(2007). How “safe drinking” experts let a bottle or two go to their heads. The Times 20 October [online] Available at:http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/food_and_drink/article2698024.ece(accessed 21 December 2007).

Rehm J, 2003, Alcohol‐related mortality and morbidity, Alcohol Res Health, 27, 39

10.1046/j.1360-0443.2003.00467.x

Rehm J, 2004, Comparative Quantification of Health Risks. Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors

10.1080/09595230600944453

10.1002/mpr.204

10.15288/jsad.2007.68.886

Ridolfo B, 2001, The quantification of drug‐caused mortality and morbidity in Australia 1998

10.1097/TA.0b013e318031aa7f

SingleE AshleyM BondyS RankinJ RehmJ(1999).Evidence regarding the level of alcohol consumption considered to be low‐risk for men and women. Final report submitted to the Australian Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care.

10.5694/j.1326-5377.1998.tb123332.x

10.1093/aje/kwn215

10.1097/00007435-200201000-00007

Walsh J, 1996, True Odds: How Risk Affects Your Everyday Life

10.2307/2529268

10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113007

World Health Organization (WHO), 2002, The World Health Report 2002: Reducing Risks, Promoting Healthy Life

World Health Organization (WHO), 2004, Global Status Report on Alcohol 2004

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research

Tập 17 Số 3

141-151

Thông tin tác giả