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Phân tích hạn hán khí tượng sử dụng lý thuyết copula cho khu vực lưu vực sông Tekeze thượng, phía Bắc Ethiopia
Tóm tắt
Hạn hán khí tượng là một trong những rủi ro liên quan đến khí hậu chính ảnh hưởng đến Ethiopia. Hạn hán khí tượng cho thấy sự thiếu hụt lượng mưa trong thời gian dài, thường là trong một mùa hoặc một năm. Nghiên cứu này sử dụng lý thuyết copula để phân tích hạn hán khí tượng ở khu vực lưu vực sông Tekeze thượng, phía Bắc Ethiopia. Phân tích hạn hán khí tượng bằng lý thuyết copula cung cấp một cơ hội hứa hẹn để xử lý những rủi ro này trước và cải thiện khả năng thích ứng của các lĩnh vực. Trong nghiên cứu này, dữ liệu lượng mưa và độ ẩm đất trong nhiều năm (1982–2020) đã được sử dụng để phân tích chỉ số lượng mưa tiêu chuẩn (SPI) và chỉ số độ ẩm đất tiêu chuẩn (SSI), tương ứng. Gia đình copula phù hợp nhất đã được chọn để xây dựng phân phối xác suất kết hợp (JPD) của SPI và SSI. Chỉ số hạn hán tiêu chuẩn đa biến (MSDI) tại các khoảng thời gian 3, 6 và 12 tháng đã được phân tích bằng cách sử dụng công cụ MSDI. Kiểm định thống kê không tham số Mann–Kendall (M–K) đã được sử dụng để phát hiện xu hướng. Chúng tôi phát hiện rằng MSDI mới phát triển đã nắm bắt tất cả các sự kiện hạn hán trong thời gian quan sát so với SPI và SSI. MSDI đặc biệt cho thấy hạn hán gần đây nhất vào năm 2015, với thời gian và mức độ nghiêm trọng của hạn hán là 4 tháng và 6.4, tương ứng, và chu kỳ quay trở lại kết hợp của nó là 5,24 năm. Các kiểm định thống kê M–K và ước lượng độ dốc Sen cho thấy xu hướng tích cực cho tất cả các khoảng thời gian hạn hán trong lưu vực. Mức độ không gian của MSDI cho thấy hạn hán cực đoan thường xuyên xảy ra trong lưu vực. Phân tích hạn hán khí tượng bằng cách sử dụng nhiều chỉ số thì tốt hơn là chỉ sử dụng một chỉ số hạn hán duy nhất. Tiếp cận này có thể giúp thông tin tốt hơn về các chính sách và can thiệp thích ứng nhằm giám sát và giảm thiểu rủi ro hạn hán trong lưu vực và ngoài rìa.
Từ khóa
#hạn hán khí tượng #lý thuyết copula #chỉ số SPI #chỉ số SSI #chỉ số hạn hán tiêu chuẩn đa biến (MSDI)Tài liệu tham khảo
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