Meteorological and hydrological drought monitoring using several drought indices
Tóm tắt
With respect to the necessity of comprehensive studies on drought and also high damages that caused by drought, this research studied the meteorological and hydrological droughts. In this study, Lighvan, Navroud and Seqez basins with different climates were selected. We used monthly data of stream flow, precipitation and evaporation from 1992 to 2016 for the study of drought phenomena. The aim at this study is to analyze the SPI and SPEI for determination of dry and wet meteorological periods and use of the SSI for the exploration of hydrological drought. The analysis of drought characteristics such as intensity and duration in three areas with different climates shows that the climate change has a major impact on the characteristics of the droughts. The relations between the duration and severity of drought have been more accurate in the period of 9 months in the Navroud watershed basin. The most significant events are SPI-9 with the duration of 57 months and the severity of 34.7, SPEI-9 with the duration of 34 months and the severity of 28.09 and SSI-9 with the duration of 41 months and the severity of 30.2. According to the obtained equations in different time periods, it was resulted that the highest accuracy was observed in the relationship between the meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics in the watershed basin of Seqez for a period of 6 months. The results show that in all three basins, the correlation between the meteorological and hydrological drought is significant at the level of 99%. Results show that hydrological and meteorological droughts in Navroud and Lighvan basins have a significant correlation with 48-month periods and in the Seqez basin with 12- and 24-month periods, and the relations between hydrological droughts and meteorological droughts were obtained using the nonlinear linear models (polynomial, exponential and logarithmic). The good R2 between the duration and severity of SPI-9 and SSI-9 is 0.8 and 0.92, respectively, for polynomial equations. The maximum determination coefficient of duration and severity of SPEI-9 and SSI-9 is 0.72 and 0.82, respectively, using polynomial equation. The application of several indices indicating different components of the hydrological cycle integrates many factors that affect and trigger droughts, and thus can help in providing a wider realization of the characteristics of droughts on various water sections.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Ahmadalipour A, Mirzakhani H, Demiral MC (2017) A comparative assessment of projected meteorological and hydrological droughts: elucidating the role of temperature. J Hydrol 553:785–797
Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration- guidelines for computing crop water requirements FAO irrigation and drainage paper 56. FAO Rome 300(9):D05109
Azareh A, Rahdari MR, Rafiei-Sardoi E, Azariya-Moghadam F (2014) Investigating the relationship between hydrological and meteorological droughts in the Karaj dam Basin. Eur J Exp Biol 4(3):102–107
Bazrafshan J, Hejabi S, Habibi Nokhandan M (2010) Is the SPI sufficient for monitoring meteorological droughts in extreme costal climates of Iran? Adv Nat Appl Sci 4(3):345–351
Chang PY, Hao E, Patt YN (1997) Target prediction for indirect jumps. ACM SIGARCH Computer Archit News 25(2):274–283
Draper NR, Smith H (1998) Applied Regression Analysis. Wiley-Interscience. ISBN 978-0-471-17082-2
Edossa DC, Babel MS, Gupta AD (2010) Drought analysis in the Awash river basin. Ethiop Water Resour Manag 24(7):1441–1460
Komuscu AU (1999) Using the SPI to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of drought in Turkey. Drought Net News 11:7–13
Mishra AK, Desai VR (2005) Drought forecasting using stochastic models. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 19:326–339
Mckee TB, Doesken NJ, leist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Preprints 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. 17:179–184
Nam WH, Hayes MJ, Svoboda MD, Tadesse T, Wilhite DA (2015) Drought hazard assessment in the context of climate change for South Korea. Agric Water Manag 160:106–117
Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological drought Research Paper No 45. US Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, Washington, pp 59
Paulo AA, Pereira LS, Matias PG (2003) Analysis of local and regional droughts in southern Portugal using the theory of runs and the standardised precipitation index. In: Rossi G, Cancelliere A (eds) Tools for drought mitigation in mediterranean regions. Springer, 44:55–78
Sheffield J, Wood EF, Roderick ML (2012) Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature 491(7424):435–438
Shukla SH, Wood AW (2008) Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought. Geophys Res Lett 35(2):41–46
Sims AP, Nigoyi DS, Raman S (2002) Adopting indices for estimating soil moisture: a North Carolina case study. Geophys Res Lett 29(8):1–4
Tigkas D, Vangelis H, Tsakiris G (2012) Drought and climate change impact on streamflow in small watersheds. Sci Total Environ 440:33–41
Tokarczyk T, Szalinska W (2014) Combined analysis of precipitation and water deficit for drought hazard assessment. Hydrol Sci J 59(9):1675–1689
Vicente-Serrano SM (2006) Differences in spatial patterns of drought on different time scales: an analysis of the Iberian Peninsula. Water Resour Manage 20(1):37–60
Vicente-Serrano SM, Begueria S, Lopez-Moreno JI (2010) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Clim 23(7):1696–1718
Vicente-Serrano SM, López-Moreno JI, Drumond A, Gimeno L, Nieto R, Morán-Tejeda E, Zabalza J (2011) Effects of warming processes on droughts and water resources in the NW Iberian Peninsula (1930–2006). Climate Res 48(2–3):203–212
Wilhite DA (2000) Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions. drought, a global assessment. Natl Drought Mitig Center 1:3–18
Wu J, Chen X, Yao H, Gao L, Chen Y, Liu M (2017) Non-linear relationship of hydrological drought responding to meteorological drought and the impact of a large reservoir. J Hydrol 551:495–507
Yevjevich VM (1967) An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts. Hydrology papers (Colorado State University); No. 23