Medium-term forecast of the dynamics of the development of the Russian economy
Tóm tắt
Based on the simulation of medium-term economic dynamics under conditions of high inflation, the article analyzes the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and presents a forecast of economic growth in the near-term outlook (2015–2018) under different scenarios of change in the key interest rate.
Tài liệu tham khảo
D. Romer, Higher macroeconomics (GU VShE, Moscow, 2014) [in Russian].
M. Ershov, “What economic policies does Russia need under sanctions?,” Vopr. Ekon., No. 12, 37–53 (2014).
Ph. Cagan, Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, Ed. by M. Friedman (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1956), pp. 25–117.
E. A. Tumanova and N. L. Shagas, Macroeconomics (Infra-M, Moscow, 2004) [in Russian].
A. D. Smirnov, Lectures on Macroeconomic Modeling (GU VShE, Moscow, 2000) [in Russian].
A. A. Akaev, “The model of economic dynamics with high inflation,” in Proc. 3rd International Symposium Multiphase Systems (Inst. Okeanol. Ross. Acad. Nauk im. P. P. Shirshova, 2015).
V. M. Petrov and A. I. Yablonskii, Mathematics of Social Inequality (LIBROKOM, Moscow, 2013) [in Russian].
S. Sinel’nikov-Murylev, S. Drobyshevskii, and M. Kazakova, “Decomposition of Russia’s GDP rates in 1999–2014,” Ekon. Polit., No. 5, 7–37 (2014).
S. Yu. Glaz’ev, “On the Monetary Policy of the Central Bank,” Ekspert, No. 28, 35–38 (2015).
A. Kolomiets, “Inflation and interest rates in modern Russian economy,” Vopr. Ekon., No. 12, 101–115 (2014).
Zh. Sapir, “Russia: Lessons learned from the crisis,” Ekspert, No. 4, 18–21 (2015).
A. Apokin, D. Belousov, I. Goloshchapova, I. Ipatova, O. O. Solntsev, “On the fundamental shortcomings of modern monetary policy,” Vopr. Ekon., No. 12, 80–100 (2014).