Đo lường tiềm năng lũ kết hợp từ lượng nước sông và bão triều extreme ở quy mô toàn cầu
Tóm tắt
Tóm tắt. Sự tương tác giữa các yếu tố vật lý từ các quá trình hải dương học, thủy văn và khí tượng học tại các khu vực ven biển có thể dẫn đến tình trạng lũ kết hợp. Các sự kiện lũ kết hợp, như cơn bão Idai và cơn bão Harvey, đã chỉ ra những hậu quả tàn khốc của việc xảy ra đồng thời của lũ ven biển và lũ sông. Một số nghiên cứu gần đây đã điều tra khả năng xảy ra lũ kết hợp ở quy mô lục địa dựa trên các biến mô phỏng của các yếu tố gây lũ, chẳng hạn như bão triều, lượng mưa và lượng nước sông. Ở quy mô toàn cầu, điều này chỉ mới được thực hiện dựa trên các quan sát, vì vậy đã bỏ sót một diện rộng lớn của bờ biển toàn cầu. Mục đích của nghiên cứu này là lấp đầy khoảng trống này và xác định các khu vực có tiềm năng lũ kết hợp cao từ lượng nước sông và các cực trị bão triều tại các cửa sông trên thế giới. Để thực hiện điều này, chúng tôi sử dụng dữ liệu thời gian hàng ngày về lượng nước sông và bão triều từ các mô hình toàn cầu hiện đại, được điều khiển bằng lực lượng khí tượng nhất quán từ các tập dữ liệu tái phân tích. Chúng tôi đo lường tiềm năng lũ kết hợp bằng cách phân tích cả hai biến này liên quan đến thời gian, sự phụ thuộc thống kê chung và chu kỳ trở lại chung. Phân tích của chúng tôi chỉ ra nhiều khu vực có sự sai lệch khỏi tính độc lập thống kê và không thể được xác định trong các nghiên cứu toàn cầu trước đó chỉ dựa vào quan sát, chẳng hạn như Madagascar, bắc Maroc, Việt Nam và Đài Loan. Chúng tôi báo cáo các cơ chế gây nguyên nhân có thể cho các mẫu không gian quan sát được dựa trên tài liệu hiện có. Cuối cùng, chúng tôi cung cấp cái nhìn ban đầu về những tác động của hành vi phụ thuộc hai biến đối với việc phân loại nguy cơ lũ lụt, lấy Madagascar làm trường hợp nghiên cứu. Phân tích toàn cầu và địa phương của chúng tôi cho thấy cấu trúc phụ thuộc giữa các yếu tố gây lũ có thể phức tạp và có thể ảnh hưởng đáng kể đến xác suất chung của các cực trị lượng nước và bão triều. Những điều này nhấn mạnh sự cần thiết phải tinh chỉnh các đánh giá rủi ro lũ lụt toàn cầu và kế hoạch khẩn cấp để tính đến những tương tác tiềm năng này.
Từ khóa
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