Measuring and modelling crop yield losses due to invasive insect pests under climate change

Gomez-Zavaglia, 2020, Mitigation of emerging implications of climate change on food production systems, Int Food Res J, 134, 109, 10.1016/j.foodres.2020.109256 Knox, 2012, Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia, Environ Res Lett, 7, 10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034032 Sultan, 2019, Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models, Sci Rep, 9, 1, 10.1038/s41598-019-49167-0 Tandzi, 2020, Factors affecting yield of crops, 1 Deutsch, 2018, Increase in crop losses to insect pests in a warming climate, Science, 361, 916, 10.1126/science.aat3466 Heeb, 2019, Climate-smart pest management: building resilience of farms and landscapes to changing pest threats, J Pest Sci, 92, 951, 10.1007/s10340-019-01083-y Asseng, 2009, Crop physiology, modelling and climate change, Crop Physiol, 2005, 511, 10.1016/B978-0-12-374431-9.00020-7 Asseng, 2014, Simulation modeling: applications in cropping systems, Encycl Agric Food Syst, 5, 102, 10.1016/B978-0-444-52512-3.00233-3 Asseng, 2015, Crop modeling for climate change impact and adaptation, Crop Physiol, 505, 10.1016/B978-0-12-417104-6.00020-0 Gregory, 2009, Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate, J Exp Bot, 2827, 10.1093/jxb/erp080 Oerke, 2006, Crop losses to pests, J Agric Sci, 144, 31, 10.1017/S0021859605005708 Dillon, 2010, Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming, Nature, 467, 704, 10.1038/nature09407 Lehmann, 2020, Complex responses of global insect pests to climate warming, Front Ecol Environ, 18, 141, 10.1002/fee.2160 Skendžic, 2021, The impact of climate change on agricultural insect pests, Insects, 12 War, 2016, Impact of climate change on insect pests, plant chemical ecology, tritrophic interactions and food production, Int J Clin Biol Sci, 1, 16 Pathania, 2020, Influence of abiotic factors on the infestation dynamics of whitefly, Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius 1889) in cotton and its management strategies in North-Western India, Int J Trop Insect Sci, 40, 969, 10.1007/s42690-020-00155-2 Banahene, 2018, Thermal sensitivity of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) during larval and pupal development, Environ Entomol, 47, 1623 Srinivasa-Rao, 2015, Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario, PLoS One, 10, 10.1371/journal.pone.0116762 Johanson, 2020, Temperate insects with narrow seasonal activity periods can be as vulnerable to climate change as tropical insect species, Sci Rep, 10, 10.1038/s41598-020-65608-7 Kunert, 2010, Constitutive emission of the aphid alarm pheromone, (E)-β-farnesene, from plants does not serve as a direct defense against aphids, BMC Ecol, 10, 1, 10.1186/1472-6785-10-23 Halsch, 2021, Insects and recent climate change, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 118, 1, 10.1073/pnas.2002543117 Goergen, 2016, First report of outbreaks of the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J E Smith) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae), a new alien invasive pest in West and Central Africa, PLoS One, 11, 10.1371/journal.pone.0165632 Mutamiswa, 2017, First report of tomato leaf miner, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), in Botswana, Agric Food Secur, 6, 10.1186/s40066-017-0128-2 Kfir, 2002, Biology and management of economicaly important lepidopteran cereal stem borers in Africa, Annu Rev Entomol, 47, 701, 10.1146/annurev.ento.47.091201.145254 Tams, 1932, New species of African Heterocera, Entomologistgist, 65, 1241 Sokame, 2021, Impact of an exotic invasive pest, Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae), on resident communities of pest and natural enemies in maize fields in Kenya, Agronomy, 11, 10.3390/agronomy11061074 Ong’amo, 2018, Diversity and abundance of lepidopteran stem borers and their respective native hosts in different vegetation mosaics in Tanzania, Afr Entomol, 26, 50, 10.4001/003.026.0050 Sun, 2011, How does atmospheric elevated CO2 affect crop pests and their natural enemies? Case histories from China, Insect Science, 18, 393, 10.1111/j.1744-7917.2011.01434.x Sharma, 2016, Elevated CO2 influences host plant defense response in chickpea against Helicoverpa armigera, Arthropod Plant Interact, 10, 171, 10.1007/s11829-016-9422-3 Chen, 2019, Effects of host plants reared under elevated CO2 concentrations on the foraging behavior of different stages of corn leaf aphids Rhopalosiphum maidis, Insects, 10, 10.3390/insects10060182 Guerenstein, 2008, Roles and effects of environmental carbon dioxide in insect life, Annu Rev Entomol, 53, 161, 10.1146/annurev.ento.53.103106.093402 Rode, 2017, Prospective evidence for independent nitrogen and phosphorus limitation of grasshopper (Chorthippus curtipennis) growth in a tallgrass prairie, PLoS One, 12, 10.1371/journal.pone.0177754 Le Gall, 2014, Effects of protein and carbohydrate on an insect herbivore: the vista from a fitness landscape, Integr Comp Biol, 54, 942, 10.1093/icb/icu102 Dyer, 2013, Effects of CO2 and temperature on tritrophic interactions, PLoS One, 8, 10.1371/journal.pone.0062528 Carreras Navarro, 2020, Elevated carbon dioxide and nitrogen impact wheat and its aphid pest, Front Plant Sci, 11, 10.3389/fpls.2020.605337 Karthik, 2021 Kephe, 2021, Challenges and opportunities in crop simulation modelling under seasonal and projected climate change scenarios for crop production in South Africa, Agric Food Secur, 10, 1, 10.1186/s40066-020-00283-5 Liu, 2011, Using the DSSAT-CERES-Maize model to simulate crop yield and nitrogen cycling in fields under long-term continuous maize production, Nutr Cycl Agroecosyst, 89, 313, 10.1007/s10705-010-9396-y Hoogenboom G, Porter CH, Boote KJ, Shelia V, Wilkens PW, Singh U, White LA, Hunt R, Ogoshi JI, Lizaso J et al.: Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 4.7.5. Gainesville, Florida, USA: DSSAT Foundation (https://DSSAT.net). Tonnang, 2016, Insect Life Cycle Modelling (ILCYM) software - a generic platform for developing insect phenology models, population analysis and risk mapping, 350 Tonnang, 2017, Advances in crop insect modelling methods—towards a whole system approach, Ecol Model, 354, 88, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.03.015 Donatelli, 2017, Modelling the impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systems, Agric Syst, 155, 213, 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.019 Rasche, 2019, EPIC-GILSYM: modelling crop-pest insect interactions and management with a novel coupled crop-insect model, J Appl Ecol, 56, 2045, 10.1111/1365-2664.13426 Zhang, 2021, Insights into insect vector transmission and epidemiology of plant-Infecting Fijiviruses, Front Microbiol, 12 Heck, 2018, Insect transmission of plant pathogens: a systems biology perspective, mSystems, 3, 10.1128/mSystems.00168-17 Sokame, 2021, A system dynamics model for pests and natural enemies interactions, Sci Rep, 11, 1, 10.1038/s41598-020-79553-y NPPO, 2021, First record of Tuta absoluta in Morocco 2008 Resource document Ekesi, 2006 Giliomee, 2007, Mediterranean black fig fly, Silba adipata McAlpine (Diptera: Lonchaeidae), recorded from South Africa, Afr Entomol, 15, 383, 10.4001/1021-3589-15.2.383 Agboton, 2014, Insect fauna associated with Anacardium occidentale (Sapindales: Anacardiaceae) in Benin, West Africa, J insect Sci, 14, 10.1093/jisesa/ieu091 Hurley, 2007, Fungus gnats and other Diptera in South African forestry nurseries and their possible association with thepitch canker fungus, S Afr J Sci, 108, 43 Bolton, 2007, Taxonomy of the dolichoderine ant genus Technomyrmex Mayr (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) based on the worker caste, Contrib Am Entomol Inst, 35, 1 Stals, 2007, Discovery of an alien invasive, predatory insect in South Africa: the multicoloured Asian ladybird beetle, Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), S Afr J Sci, 103, 123 Giliomee, 2009, The woolly whitefly, Aleurothrixus floccosus (Maskell) (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae), a potentially serious citrus pest, recorded from South Africa, Afr Entomol, 17, 232, 10.4001/003.017.0216 Giliomee, 2010, Pomegranate or ash whitefly, Siphoninus phillyreae (Haliday) (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae), recorded from South Africa, African Entomol, 18, 200, 10.4001/003.018.0116 Eardley, 2009, Polistes dominulus (Christ, 1791) (Hymenoptera: Polistinae: vespidae) newly recorded from South Africa, African Entomol, 17, 226, 10.4001/003.017.0214 Willocquet, 2002, Structure and validation of RICEPEST, a production situation-driven, crop growth model simulating rice yield response to multiple pest injuries for tropical Asia, Ecol Modell, 153, 247, 10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00014-5