Khớp điểm có chiều dài: Một ví dụ về điều kiện phản thực được điều chỉnh cho sự phân nhóm theo chiều dọc

Journal of Quantitative Criminology - Tập 37 - Trang 267-301 - 2020
Ian A. Silver1,2, John Wooldredge3, Christopher J. Sullivan3, Joseph L. Nedelec3
1Department of Law and Justice Studies, Rowan University, Glassboro, USA
2Corrections Institute, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, USA
3School of Criminal Justice, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, USA

Tóm tắt

Xét đến những thách thức khi thực hiện các nghiên cứu thực nghiệm trong lĩnh vực tội phạm học và tư pháp hình sự, khớp điểm tương ứng (PSM) đại diện cho một trong những kỹ thuật được sử dụng phổ biến nhất để đánh giá hiệu quả của các điều kiện điều trị đối với hành vi trong tương lai. Tuy nhiên, các phiên bản hiện tại của PSM không điều chỉnh cho tác động của sự phân nhóm theo chiều dọc đối với sự tiếp xúc của người tham gia với các điều kiện điều trị. Nghiên cứu hiện tại trình bày và đánh giá khớp điểm có chiều dài (LPSM) như một phương pháp thay thế để đánh giá tác động của điều kiện điều trị đối với hành vi trong tương lai. LPSM điều chỉnh cho tác động của sự phân nhóm theo chiều dọc (tức là, sai số nhóm) bằng cách giả định rằng mối liên hệ giữa một dự đoán cắt ngang và một điều kiện điều trị khác nhau tùy thuộc vào thời điểm điều trị được thực hiện. Hai bước chung đã được thực hiện để đánh giá tính hợp lệ của LPSM. Đầu tiên, chúng tôi thực hiện một loạt các phân tích mô phỏng để minh họa phương pháp LPSM. Thứ hai, chúng tôi tiếp tục minh họa phương pháp này bằng việc sử dụng dữ liệu từ 63.899 tù nhân bị giam giữ trong các nhà tù ở Ohio, đánh giá tác động của chương trình nhà tù đối với tỷ lệ tái phạm trong vòng ba năm sau khi thả ra. Những sự khác biệt trong hiệu ứng điều trị được so sánh giữa PSM cắt ngang và LPSM. Các phân tích mô phỏng và minh họa đã tạo ra bằng chứng về sự khác biệt trong kết quả giữa LPSM và PSM cắt ngang. LPSM dường như cung cấp sự điều chỉnh tốt hơn cho sự phân nhóm theo chiều dọc so với PSM cắt ngang. LPSM cung cấp một lựa chọn hữu ích cho PSM cắt ngang khi xác suất tiếp xúc với điều kiện điều trị thay đổi theo thời điểm điều trị được thực hiện.

Từ khóa

#khớp điểm tương ứng #nghiên cứu thực nghiệm #tội phạm học #tư pháp hình sự #phân nhóm theo chiều dọc #tỷ lệ tái phạm #điều trị.

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