Levels of economic growth and cross-province spread of the COVID-19 in China

Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health - Tập 75 Số 9 - Trang 824-828 - 2021
Qiqing Mo1,2,3, Xinguang Chen1,4, Bin Yu1, Zhenyu Ma5
1Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
2Guilin Peoples Hospital, Guilin, China
3School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China
4Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
5School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, 530021, China

Tóm tắt

BackgroundAfter the first COVID-19 case detected on 8 December 2019 in Wuhan, the Provincial Capital of Hubei, the epidemic quickly spread throughout the whole country of China. Low developmental levels are often associated with infectious disease epidemic, this study attempted to test this notion with COVID-19 data.MethodsData by province from 8 December 2019 to 16 February 2020 were analysed using regression method. Outcomes were days from the first COVID-19 case in the origin of Hubei Province to the date when case was first detected in a destination province, and cumulative number of confirmed cases. Provincial gross domestic products (GDPs) were used to predict the outcomes while considering spatial distance and population density.ResultsOf the total 70 548 COVID-19 cases in all 31 provinces, 58 182 (82.5%) were detected in Hubei and 12 366 (17.5%) in other destination provinces. Regression analysis of data from the 30 provinces indicated that GDP was negatively associated with days of virus spreading (β=−0.2950, p<0.10) and positively associated with cumulative cases (β=97.8709, p<0.01) after controlling for spatial distance. The relationships were reversed with β=0.1287 (p<0.01) for days and β=−54.3756 (p<0.01) for cumulative cases after weighing in population density and controlling for spatial distance.ConclusionHigher levels of developmental is a risk factor for cross-province spread of COVID-19. This study adds new data to literature regarding the role of economic growth in facilitating spatial spreading of infectious diseases, and provides timely data informing antiepidemic strategies and developmental plan to balance economic growth and people’s health.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Nelson KE , Williams CM . Infectious disease epidemiology: theory and practice 2014.

10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105924

10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

Hubei Provincal Bureau of Statistics . Statistical yearbook of Wuhan, 2019. Available: http://tjj.hubei.gov.cn/tjsj/sjkscx/tjnj/gsztj/whs/201911/P020191104653356795480.pdf [Accessed 10 Mar 2020].

10.1186/s41256-020-00137-4

Yu B , Chen X , Rich S . Dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan,Huibei and China: A second derivative analysis of the cumulative daily diagnosed cases during rhe first 85 days. The Lancet 2020.

Zhang, 2014, Study on the relationship of economic social factors and human health status, Chinses Health Economic, 2, 54

He L , Tang P . The relationship between life expentancy and economic growth: a review of the literuture research. Social Security Studies 2017.

Health Commission of Guangdong Province . COVID-19 epidemic update, 2020. Available: http://wsjkw.gd.gov.cn/xxgzbdfk/yqtb/ [Accessed 17 Feb 2020].

National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China . COVID-19 epidemic update, 2020. Available: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/list_gzbd.shtml [Accessed 17 Feb 2020].

National Bureau of Statistics of China . Provincal GDP, 2019. Available: http://data.stats.gov.cn/search.htm?s=2019%E5%B9%B4%20%E5%90%84%E7%9C%81%20GDP [Accessed 18 Feb 2020].

10.1016/j.jaccpubpol.2008.02.005

Lepenies P . The power of a single number: a political history of GDP 2016.

National Bureau of Statistics of China . Total population, 2019. Available: http://data.stats.gov.cn/search.htm?s=省份总人口 [Accessed 04 Mar 2020].

Baidu . Introduction for every Chinese Province, 2020. Available: https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%90%84%E7%9C%81%E6%A6%82%E5%86%B5/15285626#2 [Accessed 04 Mar 2020].

Smith, 2019, Infectious disease and economics: the case for considering multi-sectoral impacts, One Health, 7, 100080, 10.1016/j.onehlt.2018.100080

Du, 2003, Economic loss and economic burden of SARS, and economic benefit of health investment, Chinese Health Economics, 22, 1

10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62004-1

Zhang Y . Study on urban and rural medical and health resources allocation balance in China. Medicine Society 2016.

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health

Tập 75 Số 9

824-828

Thông tin tác giả