Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement

Rogelj, J. et al. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature 534, 631–639 (2016).

The Emissions Gap Report 2015 (United Nations Environment Programme, 2015).

Le Quéré, C. et al. Global Carbon Budget 2016. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 8, 605–649 (2016).

Raupach, M. R. et al. Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 10288–10293 (2007).

Blanco, G. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

Steckel, J. C., Edenhofer, O. & Jakob, M. Drivers for the renaissance of coal. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, E3775–E3781 (2015).

Synthesis Report on the Aggregate Effect of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2015).

Nykvist, B. & Nilsson, M. Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 329–332 (2015).

Wilson, C., Grubler, A., Gallagher, K. S. & Nemet, G. F. Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation for climate protection. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 780–788 (2012).

World Energy Investment Outlook (International Energy Agency, 2014).

Jackson, R. B. et al. Reaching peak emissions. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 7–10 (2016).

Qi, Y., Stern, N., Wu, T., Lu, J. & Green, F. China’s post-coal growth. Nat. Geosci. 9, 564–566 (2016).

Reiner, D. M. Learning through a portfolio of carbon capture and storage demonstration projects. Nat. Energy 1, 15011 (2016).

Peters, G. P., Andrew, R. M., Solomon, S. & Friedlingstein, P. Measuring a fair and ambitious climate agreement using cumulative emissions. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 105004 (2015).

Feng, K., Davis, S. J., Sun, L. & Hubacek, K. Drivers of the US CO2 emissions 1997–2013. Nat. Commun. 6, 7714 (2015).

World Energy Outlook 2015 (International Energy Agency, 2015).

Global Economic Prospects, June 2016: Divergences and Risks (World Bank, 2016).

Peters, G. P. et al. Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 2–4 (2012).

Galiana, I. & Green, C. Let the global technology race begin. Nature 462, 570–571 (2009).

Clarke, L. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) 413–510 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

Ang, B. W. & Su, B. Carbon emission intensity in electricity production: a global analysis. Energy Policy 94, 56–63 (2016).

Kotchen, M. J. & Mansur, E. T. Correspondence: Reassessing the contribution of natural gas to US CO2 emission reductions since 2007. Nat. Commun. 7, 10648 (2016).

Shearer, C., Ghio, N., Myllyvirta, L., Yu, A. & Nace, T. Boom and Bust 2016: Tracking the Global Coal Plant Pipeline (CoalSwarm, Sierra Club, and Greenpeace, 2016).

Davis, S. J., Matthews, D. & Caldeira, K. Future CO2 emissions and climate change from existing energy infrastructure. Science 329, 1330–1335 (2010).

Anderson, K. & Peters, G. The trouble with negative emissions. Science 354, 182–183 (2016).

Fuss, S. et al. Betting on negative emissions. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 850–853 (2014).

Creutzig, F. et al. Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment. GCB Bioenerg. 7, 916–944 (2014).

Canadell, J. G. & Schulze, E. D. Global potential of biospheric carbon management for climate mitigation. Nat. Commun. 5, 5282 (2014).

The Global Status of CCS: 2015 (Global CCS Institute, 2015).

Buck, H. J. Rapid scale-up of negative emissions technologies: social barriers and social implications. Climatic Change 139, 155–167 (2016).

Peters, G. P. The ‘best available science’ to inform 1.5 °C policy choices. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 646–649 (2016).

Smith, P. et al. Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 42–50 (2015).

Chen, C. & Tavoni, M. Direct air capture of CO2 and climate stabilization: a model based assessment. Climatic Change 118, 59–72 (2013).

Krey, V. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

Hoekstra, R. & van der Bergh, J. C. J. M. Comparing structural and index decomposition analysis. Energy Econ. 25, 39–64 (2003).

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Boden, T. A., Andres, R. J. & Marland, G. Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions in Trends (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory US, Department of Energy, 2016).

BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2016 (BP, 2016); bp.com/statisticalreview

Korsbakken, J. I., Peters, G. P. & Andrew, R. M. Uncertainties around reductions in China’s coal use and CO2 emissions. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 687–690 (2016).

Bailis, R., Drigo, R., Ghilardi, A. & Masera, O. The carbon footprint of traditional woodfuels. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 266–272 (2015).

National Accounts Main Aggregates Database (United Nations, 2015); http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/Introduction.asp

Adoption of the Paris Agreement FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2015).

Short-term Energy Outlook (US Energy Information Administration, 2016).