Is gastric cancer becoming a rare disease? A global assessment of predicted incidence trends to 2035

Gut - Tập 69 Số 5 - Trang 823-829 - 2020
Melina Arnold1, Jin Young Park2, M. Constanza Camargo3, Nuno Lunet4,5, David Forman6, Isabelle Soerjomataram7
1Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 69008 Lyon, France
2Prevention and Implementation Group, Early Detection and Prevention Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
3Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland USA
4Departamento Ciências da Saúde Pública e Forenses, e Educação Médica, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
5Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade Do Porto, Porto, Portugal
6Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Leeds Faculty of Medicine and Health, Leeds, UK
7Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France

Tóm tắt

ObjectivesThe incidence of gastric cancer continues to decrease globally, approaching levels that in some populations could define it as a rare disease. To explore this on a wider scale, we predict its future burden in 34 countries with long-standing population-based data.MethodsData on gastric cancer incidence by year of diagnosis, sex and age were extracted for 92 cancer registries in 34 countries included inCancer Incidence in Five ContinentsPlus. Numbers of new cases and age-standardised incidence rates (ASR per 100 000) were predicted up to 2035 by fitting and extrapolating age–period–cohort models.ResultsOverall gastric cancer incidence rates are predicted to continue falling in the future in the majority of countries, including high-incidence countries such as Japan (ASR 36 in 2010 vs ASR 30 in 2035) but also low-incidence countries such as Australia (ASR 5.1 in 2010 vs ASR 4.6 in 2035). A total of 16 countries are predicted to fall below the rare disease threshold (defined as 6 per 100 000 person-years) by 2035, while the number of newly diagnosed cases remains high and is predicted to continue growing. In contrast, incidence increases were seen in younger age groups (below age 50 years) in both low-incidence and high-incidence populations.ConclusionsWhile gastric cancer is predicted to become a rare disease in a growing number of countries, incidence levels remain high in some regions, and increasing risks have been observed in younger generations. The predicted growing number of new cases highlights that gastric cancer remains a major challenge to public health on a global scale.

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Gut

Tập 69 Số 5

823-829

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