Phát thải CO2 có phải là tác dụng phụ của phát triển tài chính? Phân tích thực nghiệm cho Trung Quốc

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 23 - Trang 21041-21057 - 2016
Yu Hao1,2,3, Zong-Yong Zhang1,2,3, Hua Liao1,2,3, Yi-Ming Wei1,2,3, Shuo Wang2
1Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China
2School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China
3Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing, Beijing, China

Tóm tắt

Dựa trên dữ liệu bảng cho 29 tỉnh của Trung Quốc từ năm 1995 đến 2012, bài báo này khám phá mối quan hệ giữa phát triển tài chính và chất lượng môi trường ở Trung Quốc. Một khung tổng quát được sử dụng để ước lượng cả tác động trực tiếp và gián tiếp của phát triển tài chính đến phát thải CO2 ở Trung Quốc thông qua một mô hình hồi quy hai giai đoạn được thiết kế cẩn thận. Phương pháp sai khác đầu tiên và phương pháp Độ lệch chính tắc Tổng quát (GMM) được sử dụng để kiểm soát tính nội sinh tiềm năng và giới thiệu động lực. Để đảm bảo độ tin cậy của các ước lượng, hai chỉ số đo lường phát triển tài chính - độ sâu tài chính và hiệu quả tài chính - được sử dụng. Kết quả thực nghiệm chỉ ra rằng tác động trực tiếp của độ sâu tài chính là dương và tác động trực tiếp của hiệu quả tài chính là âm đối với chất lượng môi trường. Tác động gián tiếp của cả hai chỉ số có hình dạng chữ U và chiếm ưu thế trong hình dạng của các tác động tổng thể. Những phát hiện này gợi ý rằng ảnh hưởng của phát triển tài chính đến môi trường phụ thuộc vào mức độ phát triển kinh tế. Ở giai đoạn đầu của sự tăng trưởng kinh tế, phát triển tài chính là thân thiện với môi trường. Khi nền kinh tế phát triển cao, mức độ phát triển tài chính cao hơn lại có hại cho chất lượng môi trường.

Từ khóa

#phát triển tài chính #chất lượng môi trường #phát thải CO2 #Trung Quốc #phương pháp GMM

Tài liệu tham khảo

Allen F, Qian J, Qian M (2005) Law, finance, and economic growth in China. J Financ Econ 77(1):57–116 Anderson TW, Hsiao C (1981) Estimation of dynamic models with error components. J Am Stat Assoc 76(375):598–606 Arellano M, Bond S (1991) Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Rev Econ Stud 58(2):277–297 Arellano M, Bover O (1995) Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. J Econ 68:29–51 Auffhammer M, Carson RT (2008) Forecasting the path of China’s CO2 emissions using provincial level information. J Environ Econ Manag 55(3):229–247 Baltagi HB (2005) Econometric analysis of panel data (3e). Wiley, New York Bloch H, Rafiq S, Salim R (2012) Coal consumption, CO2 emission and economic growth in China: empirical evidence and policy responses. Energ Econ 34(2):518–528 Blundell R, Bond S (1998) Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. J Econ 87(1):115–143 Brännlund R, Ghalwash T, Nordström J (2007) Increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect: effects on consumption and emissions. Energ Econ 29(1):1–17 Brock WA, Taylor MS (2010) The green Solow model. J Econ Growth 15(2):127–153 Calderón C, Liu L (2003) The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth. J Dev Econ 72(1):321–334 Carson RT (2010) The environmental Kuznets curve: seeking empirical regularity and theoretical structure. Rev Environ Econ Policy 4(1):3–23 Chamon M, Liu K, Prasad E (2013) Income uncertainty and household savings in China. J Dev Econ 105:164–177 Chamon MD, Prasad ES (2010) Why are saving rates of urban households in China rising? Am Econ J Macroecon 2(1):93–130 Chen B, Feng Y (2000) Determinants of economic growth in China: private enterprise, education, and openness. China Econ Rev 11(1):1–15 Chen H (2006) Development of financial intermediation and economic growth: the Chinese experience. China Econ Rev 17(4):347–362 Chen SM, He LY (2014) Welfare loss of China’s air pollution: how to make personal vehicle transportation policy. China Econ Rev 31:106–118 Chen Y, Schleicher N, Fricker M, Cen K, Liu XL, Kaminski U, Yu Y, Wu X, Norra S (2016) Long-term variation of black carbon and PM2.5 in Beijing, China with respect to meteorological conditions and governmental measures. Environ Pollut 212:269–278 Christopoulos DK, Tsionas EG (2004) Financial developmentand economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests. J Dev Econ 73(1):55–74 Chowdhury RR, Moran EF (2012) Turning the curve: a critical review of Kuznets approaches. Appl Geogr 32(1):3–11 Çoban S, Topcu M (2013) The nexus between financial development and energy consumption in the EU: a dynamic panel data analysis. Energ Econ 39:81–88 Cole MA, Elliott RJ, Shimamoto K (2005) Industrial characteristics, environmental regulations and air pollution: an analysis of the UK manufacturing sector. J Environ Econ Manag 50(1):121–143 Cole MA (2007) Corruption, income and the environment: an empirical analysis. Ecol Econ 62:637–647 De Gregorio J, Guidotti PE (1995) Financial development and economic growth. World Dev 23(3):433–448 Deidda L, Fattou B (2002) Non-linearity between finance a growth analysis. Econ Lett 2002(74):339–345 Dogan E, Turkekul B (2016) CO2 emissions, real output, energy consumption, trade, urbanization and financial development: testing the EKC hypothesis for the USA. Environ Sci Pollut Res 23(2):1203–1213 Du L, Wei C, Cai S (2012) Economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in China: provincial panel data analysis. China Econ Rev 23(2):371–384 Favarra, G. 2003. An empirical reassessment of the relationship between finance and growth (no. 3–123). International Monetary Fund, Washington Gaffeo E, Garalova P (2014) On the finance-growth nexus: additional evidence from Central and Eastern Europe countries. Econ Chang Restruct 47(2):89–115 Galeotti M, Lanza A, Pauli F (2006) Reassessing the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: a robustness exercise. Ecol Econ 57(1):152–163 García-Herrero A, Gavilá S, Santabárbara D (2009) What explains the low profitability of Chinese banks? J Bank Financ 33(11):2080–2092 Giovanis E (2013) Environmental Kuznets curve: evidence from the British household panel survey. Econ Model 30:602–611 Govindaraju VC, Tang CF (2013) The dynamic links between CO2 emissions, economic growth and coal consumption in China and India. Appl Energ 104:310–318 Grossman G. M., Kruger A. B. 1991. Environmental impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement. NBER Working Paper, Cambridge No. 3914 Grossman GM, Kruger AB (1995) Economic growth and the environment. Q J Econ 110(2):353–377 Gualberti G, Martins LF, Bazilian M (2014) An econometric analysis of the effectiveness of development finance for the energy sector. Energ Sustain Dev 18:16–27 Guariglia A, Poncet S (2008) Could financial distortions be no impediment to economic growth after all? Evidence from China. J Comp Econ 36(4):633–657 Halkos GE, Paizanos EΑ (2013) The effect of government expenditure on the environment: an empirical investigation. Ecol Econ 91:48–56 Hao Y, Liao H, Wei YM (2015) Is China’s carbon reduction target allocation reasonable? An analysis based on carbon intensity convergence. Appl Energ 142:229–239 Hao Y, Liu YM (2015) Has the development of FDI and foreign trade contributed to China’s CO2 emissions? An empirical study with provincial panel data. Nat Hazards 76(2):1079–1091 Hao Y, Liu YM (2016) The influential factors of urban PM2.5 concentrations in China: a spatial econometric analysis. J Clean Prod 112:1443–1453 Hasan I, Wachtel P, Zhou M (2009) Institutional development, financial deepening and economic growth: evidence from China. J Bank Financ 33(1):157–170 Hayakawa K (2009) First difference or forward orthogonal deviation—which transformation should be used in dynamic panel data models?: a simulation study. Econ Bull 29(3):2008–2017 He LY, Chen Y (2013) Thou shalt drive electric and hybrid vehicles: scenario analysis on energy saving and emission mitigation for road transportation sector in China. Transp Policy 25:30–40 He D, Zhang W, Shek J (2007) How efficient has been China’s investment? Empirical evidence from national and provincial data. Pac Econ Rev 12(5):597–617 He J, Wang H (2012) Economic structure, development policy and environmental quality: an empirical analysis of environmental Kuznets curves with Chinese municipal data. Ecol Econ 76:49–59 Herrerias MJ, Orts V (2010) Is the export-led growth hypothesis enough to account for China’s growth? China World Econ 18(4):34–51 Huang Y (2010) Political institutions and financial development: an empirical study. World Dev 38:1667–1677 IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change). 2006. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, Kanagawa: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) for the IPCC Islam F, Shahbaz M, Ahmed AU, Alam MM (2013) Financial development and energy consumption nexus in Malaysia: a multivariate time series analysis. Econ Model 30:435–441 Jalil A, Mahmud SF (2009) Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: a cointegration analysis for China. Energ Policy 37(12):5167–5172 Kaika D, Zervas E (2013) The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory—part a: concept, causes and the CO2 emissions case. Energ Policy 62:1392–1402 Li T (2014) Shadow banking in China: expanding scale, evolving structure. J Financ Econ Policy 6(3):198–211 Liang Q, Teng J (2006) Financial development and economic growth: evidence from China. China Econ Rev 17(4):395–411 Lin X, Zhang Y (2009) Bank ownership reform and bank performance in China. J Bank Financ 33(1):20–29 Lieb, C. M. 2003. The environmental Kuznets curve. A survey of the empirical literature and of possible causes (no. 391). Discussion paper series Lu D, Thangavelu SM, Hu Q (2005) Biased lending and non-performing loans in China’s banking sector. J Dev Stud 41(6):1071–1091 Lundgren T (2003) A real options approach to abatement investments and green goodwill. Environ Resour Econ 25:17–31 Ma C, Stern DI (2008) China’s changing energy intensity trend: a decomposition analysis. Energ Econ 30:1037–1053 Omri A, Daly S, Rault C, Chaibi A (2015) Financial development, environmental quality, trade and economic growth: what causes what in MENA countries. Energ Econ 48:242–252 Ozturk I, Acaravci A (2013) The long-run and causal analysis of energy, growth, openness and financial development on carbon emissions in Turkey. Energ Econ 36:262–267 Ozturk I, Al-Mulali U, Saboori B (2016) Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: the role of tourism and ecological footprint. Environ Sci Pollut Res 23(2):1916–1928 Rioja F, Valev N (2004) Does one size fit all?: a reexamination of the finance and growth relationship. J Dev Econ 74(2):429–447 Sadorsky P (2010) The impact of financial development on energy consumption in emerging economies. Energ Policy 38(5):2528–2535 Sadorsky P (2011) Financial development and energy consumption in Central and Eastern European frontier economies. Energ Policy 39(2):999–1006 Shahbaz M, Solarin SA, Mahmood H, Arouri M (2013) Does financial development reduce CO2 emissions in Malaysian economy? A time series analysis. Econ Model 35:145–152 Sharma SD (2014) Shadow banking, Chinese style. Econ Aff 34(3):340–352 Shih V (2004) Factions matter: personal networks and the distribution of bank loans in China. J Contemp China 13(38):3–19 Song T, Zheng TG, Tong LJ (2008) An empirical test of the environmental Kuznets curve in China: a panel cointegration approach. China Econ Rev 19:381–392 Song Z, Storesletten K, Zilibotti F (2011) Growing like China. Am Econ Rev 101(1):196–233 Stern D (2004) The rise and fall of the environmental Kuznets curve. World Dev 32:1419–1439 Tamazian A, Chousa JP, Vadlamannati KC (2009) Does higher economic and financial development lead to environmental degradation: evidence from BRIC countries. Energ Policy 37(1):246–253 Tamazian A, Rao BB (2010) Do economic, financial and institutional developments matter for environmental degradation? Evidence from transitional economies. Energ Econ 32(1):137–145 Wei SJ, Wang T (1997) The siamese twins: do state-owned banks favor state-owned enterprises in China? China Econ Rev 8(1):19–29 Welsch H (2004) Corruption, growth, and the environment: a cross-country analysis. Environ Dev Econ 9(05):663–693 Wooldridge JM (2016) Introductory econometrics: a modern approach (6e). Cengage Learning, East Lansing Yang S, He LY (2016a) Fuel demand, road transport pollution emissions and residents’ health losses in the transitional China. Transp Res Part D: Transp Environ 42:45–59 Yang S, He LY (2016b) Transport pollution in China—evidence from Beijing. Energy Environ. (In press) Yeung G (2009) How banks in China make lending decisions. J Contemp China 18(59):285–302 Yuxiang K, Chen Z (2011a) Resource abundance and financial development: evidence from China. Resour Policy 36(1):72–79 Yuxiang K, Chen Z (2011b) Financial development and environmental performance: evidence from China. Environ Dev Econ 16(01):93–111 Yu Q (1998) Capital investment, international trade and economic growth in China: evidence in the 1980–1990s. China Econ Rev 9(1):73–84 Zhang A, Zhang Y, Zhao R (2003) A study of the R&D efficiency and productivity of Chinese firms. J Comp Econ 31(3):444–464 Zhang YJ (2011) The impact of financial development on carbon emissions: an empirical analysis in China. Energ Policy 39(4):2197–2203 Zhang YJ, Da YB (2015) The decomposition of energy-related carbon emission and its decoupling with economic growth in China. Renew Sust Energ Rev 41:1255–1266 Zhang YJ, Liu Z, Zhang H, Tan TD (2014) The impact of economic growth, industrial structure and urbanization on carbon emission intensity in China. Nat Hazards 73(2):579–595 Zhang YJ, Peng HR, Liu Z, Tan W (2015) Direct energy rebound effect for road passenger transport in China: a dynamic panel quantile regression approach. Energ Policy 87:303–313 Zheng M, Salmon LG, Schauer JJ, Zeng L, Kiang CS, Zhang Y, Cass GR (2005) Seasonal trends in PM2.5 source contributions in Beijing, China. Atmos Environ 39(22):3967–3976 Zilibotti F (1994) Endogenous growth and intermediation in an ‘archipelago’ economy. Econ J 462–473 Zilio M, Recalde M (2011) GDP and environment pressure: the role of energy in Latin America and the Caribbean. Energ Policy 39(12):7941–7949