Irregular distribution of wind power prediction

Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy - Tập 6 - Trang 1172-1180 - 2018
Kun YUAN1, Kaifeng ZHANG1, Yaxian ZHENG2, Dawei LI1, Ying WANG1, Zhenglin YANG2
1Key Laboratory of Measurement and Control of CSE, School of Automation, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
2China Electric Power Research Institute (Nanjing), Nanjing, China

Tóm tắt

Wind power is volatile and uncertain, which makes it difficult to establish an accurate prediction model. How to quantitatively describe the distribution of wind power output is the focus of this paper. First, it is assumed that wind speed is a random variable that satisfies the normal distribution. Secondly, based on the nonlinear relationship between wind speed and wind power, the distribution model of wind power prediction is established from the viewpoint of the physical mechanism. The proposed model successfully shows the complex characteristics of the wind power prediction distribution. The results show that the distribution of wind power prediction varies significantly with the point forecast of the wind speed.

Tài liệu tham khảo

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