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Các Đặc Trưng Nông Nghiệp Vùng Phía Trong Quyết Định Bỏ Ruộng: Bằng Chứng Từ Vùng Chugoku và Shikoku của Nhật Bản
Tóm tắt
Kể từ những năm 1980, Nhật Bản đã chứng kiến sự suy giảm chưa từng thấy trong nông nghiệp chủ yếu do việc nông dân già đi, tình trạng giảm dân số và các điều kiện kinh tế-xã hội không thuận lợi. Sự phát triển này đã dẫn đến sự gia tăng tình trạng bỏ ruộng (FLA) trên toàn quốc. Tuy nhiên, vẫn chưa rõ FLA bị ảnh hưởng như thế nào và ở mức độ nào bởi các đặc trưng nông nghiệp nội vùng. Do đó, bài báo này thảo luận về vấn đề FLA bằng cách xem xét kỹ lưỡng vùng Chugoku và Shikoku, nơi đã trải qua tỷ lệ FLA cao nhất ở Nhật Bản trong những năm gần đây. Đối với phân tích này, một tổng số 25 chỉ số được lấy từ điều tra nông nghiệp và lâm nghiệp ở quy mô các đô thị cũ đã được chọn để mô tả các đặc trưng nông nghiệp nội vùng. Chúng tôi đã sử dụng phân tích thành phần chính (PCA) để đánh giá các đặc trưng nông nghiệp, trong khi hồi quy tuyến tính đa biến (MLR) được áp dụng để khám phá mối tương quan của chúng với FLA và các biến thể không gian. Đầu tiên, có sự khác biệt mạnh mẽ về các đặc trưng nông nghiệp trong toàn vùng Chugoku và Shikoku, với tám thành phần chính khác nhau mô tả các đặc trưng của chúng. Thứ hai, các biến đo lường đặc trưng nông nghiệp giải thích gần 52,8% sự biến thiên trong FLA trong mẫu của chúng tôi. Định hướng bán hàng và quy mô sản xuất nông nghiệp có mối tương quan tiêu cực mạnh nhất với FLA trong vùng, trong khi trạng thái kế thừa nông nghiệp thể hiện mối tương quan tích cực mạnh nhất với FLA. Thứ ba, ở những khu vực mà nông nghiệp ổn định hơn và dễ duy trì hơn, FLA bị ảnh hưởng mạnh mẽ hơn bởi sự thay đổi trong các đặc trưng nông nghiệp so với những biến thể địa lý. Chúng tôi lập luận rằng các phương pháp tiếp cận và chính sách địa phương cho việc quản lý trong tương lai cần phải xem xét sự khác biệt nội vùng về các đặc trưng nông nghiệp và FLA. Những phát hiện của chúng tôi giúp giải thích các biến thể không gian trong các đặc trưng nông nghiệp và FLA trong các bối cảnh khu vực, cho thấy sự cần thiết phải có các chính sách sử dụng đất được thông tin tốt hơn để giảm tình trạng bỏ ruộng thêm nữa.
Từ khóa
#nông nghiệp #bỏ ruộng #đặc trưng nội vùng #phân tích thành phần chính #hồi quy tuyến tính đa biến #Chugoku #Shikoku #Nhật BảnTài liệu tham khảo
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