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Tích hợp nhiều chỉ số hạn hán bằng phương pháp kết hợp ba chiều
Tóm tắt
Ba chỉ số hạn hán (Chỉ số lượng mưa chuẩn hóa [SPI], Chỉ số căng thẳng bốc hơi [ESI] và Chỉ số bất thường độ ẩm đất [SMAI]) đã được tích hợp bằng cách sử dụng phương pháp kết hợp ba chiều (TC) để sản xuất chỉ số hạn hán tổng hợp (MDI). Chỉ số mới này sau đó được so sánh với chỉ số mức độ hạn hán (DSI) từ nghiệm trọng GRACE, là một chỉ số hạn hán toàn diện phản ánh sự biến động trữ lượng nước ở bề mặt, dưới bề mặt và mức nước ngầm trên khắp Đông Á và Úc từ năm 2003 đến 2014. Trước khi hợp nhất ba chỉ số hạn hán, hiệu suất của chúng đã được phân tích. Mối tương quan trung bình giữa ba chỉ số hạn hán và DSI-GRACE cho thấy hiệu suất của ESI vượt trội hơn SMAI và SPI ở các khu vực nghiên cứu. Về kết quả trọng số trung bình khi sử dụng phương pháp kết hợp, ESI có trọng số lớn hơn (0,372 và 0,359) và những đóng góp (43% và 38%), tiếp theo là SMAI và SPI cho Đông Á và Úc, tương ứng. SMAI đạt được trọng số tương tự (0,360) và đóng góp (39%) như ESI trên toàn Australia. Để xác định độ tin cậy của MDI như được ước tính bởi trọng số TC, chúng tôi đã đánh giá MDI và DSI-GRACE tham chiếu với các tài liệu về hạn hán được ghi nhận ở các khu vực nghiên cứu. MDI tạo ra các xu hướng tương tự như DSI-GRACE ở Australia, trong khi xu hướng MDI và DSI-GRACE không tương tự ở Đông Á. Mối tương quan giữa MDI và DSI-GRACE ở Australia (0,41–0,62) cũng cao hơn ở Đông Á (0,24–0,32) trong suốt thời gian nghiên cứu. Sự khác biệt này là do sự khác biệt về khái niệm, trong đó MDI phản ánh biến động trữ lượng nước gần mặt đất trong khi DSI-GRACE phản ánh biến động của nước sâu hơn. Tuy nhiên, kết quả của chúng tôi cho thấy MDI vượt trội hơn so với các chỉ số hạn hán đơn lẻ và có khả năng nắm bắt các sự kiện hạn hán đã được ghi nhận trên các vùng nghiên cứu. Điều này cho thấy việc tích hợp các chỉ số hạn hán khác nhau vào một công cụ duy nhất có thể đại diện tốt hơn cho các hiện tượng hạn hán và có thể là một phương pháp quý giá cho quản lý tài nguyên nước.
Từ khóa
#chỉ số hạn hán #tích hợp #phương pháp kết hợp ba chiều #nước ngầm #quản lý tài nguyên nướcTài liệu tham khảo
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