Integrating quantitative and qualitative forecasting approaches: organizational learning in an action research case

Armstrong JS (1985). Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer. John Wiley and Sons: New York. Armstrong JS (ed) (2001). Principles of Forecasting. Kluwer Academic: Norwell, MA. Blattberg RC and Hoch SJ (1990). Database models and managerial intuition: 50% model +50% manager. Manage Sci 36: 887–899. Bunn D (1987). Expert use of forecasts: bootstrapping and linear models. In: Wright G and Ayton P (eds). Judgmental Forecasting. John Wiley: Chichester, pp 229–241. Caniato F, Kalchschmidt M, Ronchi S, Verganti R and Zotteri G (2002). Forecasting demand fluctuations due to promotional activities: A case in the fresh food industry. In: Beckman S and Sinha KK (eds). POM High Tech, Proceedings of POMS Conference. POMS: San Francisco, CA, pp 1–22. Caniato F, Kalchschmidt M, Ronchi S, Verganti R and Zotteri G (2005). Clustering customers to forecast demand. Prod Plan Control 16 (1): 32–43. Clemen RT (1989). Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. Int J Forecasting 5: 559–583. Collopy F and Armstrong JS (1992). Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities. Int J Forecasting 8: 575–582. Coughlan P and Coghlan D (2002). Action research for operations management. Int J Oper Prod Man 22 : 220–240. Dalrymple DJ (1987). Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States survey. Int J Forecasting 3 : 379–391. Diamantopoulos A and Mathews BP (1989). Factors affecting the nature and effectiveness of subjective revision in sales forecasting: An empirical study. Managerial Dec Econ 10: 51–59. Donihue MR (1993). Evaluating the role judgment plays in forecast accuracy. J Forecasting 12: 81–92. Fildes R, Randall A and Stubbs P (1997). One day ahead demand forecasting in the utility industries: Two case studies. J Opl Res Soc 48: 15–24. Fildes R, Nikolopoulos KN, Crone SC and Syntetos AS (2008). Forecasting and operational research: A review. J Opl Res Soc 59 : 1150–1172. Fildes R, Goodwin P, Lawrence M and Nikolopoulos K (2009). Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning. Int J Forecasting 25: 3–23. Fischer I and Harvey N (1999). Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average? Int J Forecasting 15: 227–246. Goodwin P (2000). Correct or combine? Mechanically integrating judgmental forecasts with statistical methods. Int J Forecasting 16: 261–275. Goodwin P and Fildes R (1999). Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: Does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy? J Behav Decis Making 12: 37–53. Goodwin P, Fildes R, Lawrence M and Nikolopoulos K (2007). The process of using a forecasting support system. Int J Forecasting 23: 391–404. Greenwood D and Levin M (1998). Introduction to Action Research. Sage: Thousand Oaks, CA. Hansen JV and Nelson RD (2003). Forecasting and recombining time-series components by using neural networks. J Opl Res Soc 54: 307–317. Harvey N (1995). Why are judgments less consistent in less predictable task situations? Org Behav Human Dec Proc 63: 247–263. Harvey N and Bolger F (1996). Graphs versus tables: Effects of data presentation format on judgmental forecasting. Int J Forecasting 12: 119–137. Johnston FR, Boylan JE, Shale E and Meadows M (1999). A robust forecasting system, based on the combination of two simple moving averages. J Opl Res Soc 50: 1199–1204. Kaltoft R, Boer H, Caniato F, Gertsen F, Middel R and Nielsen J (2007). Implementing collaborative improvement — top-down, bottom-up or both? Int J Tech Man 37 : 306–322. Klassen RD and Flores BE (2001). Forecasting practices of Canadian firms: Survey results and comparisons. Int J Product Econ 70: 163–174. Lawrence M, Edmundson RH and O'Connor MJ (1985). An examination of the accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series. Int J Forecasting 1: 25–35. Lawrence M, Goodwin P, O'Connor M and Önkal D (2006). Judgemental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years. Int J Forecasting 22: 493–518. Lee WY, Goodwin P, Fildes R, Nikolopoulos K and Lawrence M (2007). Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks. Int J Forecasting 23: 377–390. Lewin K (1958). Group decision and social change. In: Maccoby EE, Newcomb TM, Hartley EL (eds). Readings in Social Psychology. Holt, Rinehart and Winston: New York, pp 197–211. Lim JS and O'Connor MJ (1996a). Judgmental forecasting with interactive forecasting support systems. Dec Supp Sys 16: 339–357. Lim JS and O'Connor MJ (1996b). Judgmental forecasting with time series and causal information. Int J Forecasting 12: 139–153. Maines LA (1996). An experimental examination of subjective forecast combination. Int J Forecasting 12: 223–233. Makridakis S, Wheelwright SC and Hyndman RJ (1998). Forecasting: Methods and Applications. John Wiley and Sons: New York. Mathews BP and Diamantopoulos A (1986). Managerial intervention in forecasting: An empirical investigation of forecast manipulation. Int J Res Marketing 3: 3–10. Mathews BP and Diamantopoulos A (1989). Judgmental revision of sales forecasts: A longitudinal extension. J Forecasting 8: 129–140. Mathews BP and Diamantopoulos A (1990). Judgmental revision of sales forecasts: Effectiveness of forecast selection. J Forecasting 9: 407–415. Mathews BP and Diamantopoulos A (1992). Judgmental revision of sales forecasts: The relative performance of judgementally revised versus non-revised forecasts. J Forecasting 11: 569–576. Mathews BP and Diamantopoulos A (1994). Towards a taxonomy of forecast error measures: A factor-comparative investigation of forecast error dimensions. J Forecasting 13: 409–416. McCarthy TM, Davis DF, Golicic SL and Mentzer JT (2006). The evolution of sales forecasting management: A 20 year longitudinal study of forecasting practices. J Forecasting 24: 303–324. McNees SK (1990). The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy. Int J Forecasting 6: 287–299. Mostaghimi M (1996). Combining ranked mean value forecasts. Eur J Oper Res 94: 505–516. O'Connor M, Remus W and Griggs K (1993). Judgmental forecasting in times of change. Int J Forecasting 9: 163–172. O'Connor M, Remus W and Griggs K (2000). Does updating judgmental forecasts improve forecast accuracy? Int J Forecasting 16: 101–109. Önkal D (2009). Comments on ‘Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning’. Int J Forecasting 25: 30–31. Rapoport RN (1970). Three dilemmas in action research: With special reference to the Tavistock experience. Human Relations 23 : 499–513. Robb DJ and Silver EA (2002). Using composite moving averages to forecast sales. J Opl Res Soc 53: 1281–1285. Ronchi S (2006). Managing sub-contractors and suppliers in the construction industry. Supply Chain Forum: An International Journal 7 (1): 24–33. Sanders NR and Manrodt KB (1994). Forecasting practices in US corporations: Survey results. Interfaces 24 (2): 92–100. Sanders NR and Ritzman LP (1991). On knowing when to switch from quantitative to judgmental forecasts. Int J Oper Prod Man 11 (6): 28–37. Sanders NR and Ritzman LP (1992). The need for contextual and technical knowledge in judgmental forecasting. J Behav Dec Making 5: 39–52. Sanders NR and Ritzman LP (2001). Judgmental adjustment of statistical forecasts. In: Armstrong JS (ed). Principles of Forecasting. Kluwer Academic: Norwell, MA, pp 405–416. Shani AB and Pasmore WA (1985). Organization enquiry: Towards a new model of the action research process. In: Warwick DD (ed). Contemporary Organization Development: Current Thinking and Applications. Scott Foresman: Glenview, IL, pp 438–448. Stewart TR (2001). Improving reliability of judgmental forecasts. In: Armstrong JS (ed). Principles of Forecasting. Kluwer Academic: Norwell, MA, pp 81–106. Susman GI and Evered RD (1978). An assessment of the scientific merits of action research. Admin Sci Quart 23 : 582–603. Syntetos AA, Nikolopoulos K, Boylan JE, Fildes R and Goodwin P (2009). The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts. Int J Prod Econ 118 : 72–81. Trist E and Murray H (1993). The Social Engagement of Social Science. A Tavistock Anthology. Volume II, The Socio-Technical Perspective. University of Pennsylvania Press: Philadelphia, PA. Turner DS (1990). The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting. J Forecasting 9: 315–345. Whyte WF (1991). Social Theory for Action: How Individuals and Organizations Learn to Change. Sage Publications: Newbury Park, CA. Wolfe C and Flores B (1990). Judgmental adjustment of earnings forecasts. J Forecasting 9: 389–405.