Integrating prediction market and Delphi methodology into a foresight support system — Insights from an online game

Niiniluoto, 2001, Futures studies: science or art?, Futures, 33, 371, 10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00080-X Graefe, 2010, Are prediction markets more accurate than simple surveys?, Foresight Int. J. Appl. Forecast., 19, 39 Van Bruggen, 2010, Prediction markets as institutional forecasting support systems, Decis. Support. Syst., 49, 404, 10.1016/j.dss.2010.05.002 R. Rohrbeck, N. Thom, H. Arnold, IT tools for foresight: The integrated insight and response system of Deutsche Telekom Innovation Laboratories, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 97 (2015) 115-126. Hanson, 1999, Decision markets, IEEE Intell. Syst., 14, 16 J. Keller, H.A. von der Gracht, The influence of information and communication technology (ICT) on future foresight processes — Results from a Delphi survey, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 85 (2014) 81-92 Walden, 2000, Industry foresight with intelligent agents, Hum. Syst. Manag., 19, 169, 10.3233/HSM-2000-19304 Skulimowski, 2012, Discovering complex system dynamics with intelligent data retrieval tools, 614 Banuls, 2011, Scope and design issues in foresight support systems, Int. J. Foresight Innov. Policy, 7, 338, 10.1504/IJFIP.2011.043023 Salo, 2003, Multicriteria methods for technology foresight, J. Forecast., 22, 235, 10.1002/for.850 Skulimowski, 2012, A foresight support system to manage knowledge on information society evolution, 246 Bañuls, 2008, Foresighting key areas in the Information Technology industry, Technovation, 28, 103, 10.1016/j.technovation.2007.05.006 Salo, 2004, A group support system for foresight processes, Int. J. Foresight Innov. Policy, 1, 249, 10.1504/IJFIP.2004.004985 Ondrus, 2008, Technology foresight for IT investment: multi-criteria decision-making versus prediction markets Berg, 2003, Prediction markets as decision support systems, Inf. Syst. Front., 5, 79, 10.1023/A:1022002107255 Guo, 2006, Supply chain information sharing in a macro prediction market, Decis. Support. Syst., 42, 1944, 10.1016/j.dss.2006.05.003 Wolfers, 2004, Prediction markets, J. Econ. Perspect., 18, 107, 10.1257/0895330041371321 Arrow, 2008, The promise of prediction markets, Science, 320, 877, 10.1126/science.1157679 Spann, 2009, Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters, J. Forecast., 28, 55, 10.1002/for.1091 Ho, 2007, New product blockbusters: the magic and science of prediction markets, Calif. Manag. Rev., 50, 144, 10.2307/41166420 Hayek, 1945, The use of knowledge in society, Am. Econ. Rev., 35, 519 Rhode, 2004, Historical presidential betting markets, J. Econ. Perspect., 18, 127, 10.1257/0895330041371277 Forsythe, 1992, Anatomy of an experimental political stock market, Am. Econ. Rev., 82, 1142 Forsythe, 1999, Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets, J. Econ. Behav. Organ., 39, 83, 10.1016/S0167-2681(99)00027-X Berg, 2008, Results from a dozen years of election futures markets research, 742, 10.1016/S1574-0722(07)00080-7 Pennock, 2001, Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from web games, 174 Pennock, 2001, The real power of artificial markets, Science, 291, 987, 10.1126/science.291.5506.987 Elberse, 2007, The power of stars: do star actors drive the success of movies?, J. Mark., 71, 102, 10.1509/jmkg.71.4.102 Elberse, 2003, Demand and supply dynamics for sequentially released products in international markets: the case of motion pictures, Mark. Sci., 22, 329, 10.1287/mksc.22.3.329.17740 Graefe, 2010, Prediction markets for foresight, Futures, 42, 394, 10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.024 Graefe, 2011, Prediction markets and the “trough of disillusionment”, Foresight Int. J. Appl. Forecast., 43 Soukhoroukova, 2012, Sourcing, filtering, and evaluating new product ideas: an empirical exploration of the performance of idea markets, J. Prod. Innov. Manag., 29, 100, 10.1111/j.1540-5885.2011.00881.x Servan-Schreiber, 2004, Prediction markets: does money matter?, Electron. Mark., 14, 243, 10.1080/1019678042000245254 Luckner, 2005, STOCCER — a forecasting market for the FIFA World Cup 2006, 399 Luckner, 2008, On the forecast accuracy of sports prediction markets, 227 Matzler, 2013, Predicting new product success with prediction markets in online communities, R&D Manag., 43, 420, 10.1111/radm.12030 Polgreen, 2007, Use of prediction markets to forecast infectious disease activity, Clin. Infect. Dis., 44, 272, 10.1086/510427 Graefe, 2010, Prediction markets for forecasting drug development, Foresight Int. J. Appl. Forecast., 8 Ou-Yang, 2011 Spann, 2009, Identification of lead users for consumer products via virtual stock markets, J. Prod. Innov. Manag., 26, 322, 10.1111/j.1540-5885.2009.00661.x Rhode, 2007, Manipulating political stock markets: a field experiment and a century of observational data Ottaviani, 2007, Outcome manipulation in corporate prediction markets, J. Eur. Econ. Assoc., 5, 554, 10.1162/jeea.2007.5.2-3.554 Dahan, 2011, Securities trading of concepts, J. Mark. Res., 48, 497, 10.1509/jmkr.48.3.497 Cowgill, 2008, Using prediction markets to track information flows: evidence from Google Chen, 2002, Information aggregation mechanisms: concept, design and implementation for a sales forecasting problem Tziralis, 2007, Prediction markets: an extended literature review, J. Prediction Mark., 1, 75, 10.5750/jpm.v1i1.421 Luckner, 2008, Prediction markets: fundamentals, key design elements, and applications Duggan, 2002, Winning isn't everything: corruption in sumo wrestling, Am. Econ. Rev., 92, 1594, 10.1257/000282802762024665 Dohmen, 2008, The influence of social forces: evidence from the behavior of football referees, Econ. Inq., 46, 411, 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2007.00112.x Berg, 2008, Prediction market accuracy in the long run, Int. J. Forecast., 24, 283, 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.03.007 Green, 2007, Methods to elicit forecasts from groups: Delphi and prediction markets compared, Foresight Int. J. Appl. Forecast., 8, 17 Dalkey, 1963, An experimental application of the DELPHI method to the use of experts, Manag. Sci., 9, 458, 10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458 Linstone, 2011, Delphi: a brief look backward and forward, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 78, 1712, 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.09.011 Rowe, 2005, Judgment change during Delphi-like procedures: the role of majority influence, expertise, and confidence, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 72, 377, 10.1016/j.techfore.2004.03.004 Rowe, 1991, Delphi: a reevaluation of research and theory, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 39, 235, 10.1016/0040-1625(91)90039-I von der Gracht, 2012, Consensus measurement in Delphi studies: review and implications for future quality assurance, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 79, 1525, 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.013 Linstone, 1975, Introduction Graefe, 2011, Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task, Int. J. Forecast., 27, 183, 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.05.004 Önkal, 2013, Scenarios as channels of forecast advice, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 80, 772, 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.015 Faulkner, 2009, Are experts better than potential users in predicting the uptake of an innovation? Extending the use of the Juster Scale, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 76, 910, 10.1016/j.techfore.2008.11.001 Pham, 2012, Feeling the future: the emotional oracle effect, J. Consum. Res., 39, 461, 10.1086/663823 McKenzie, 2008, Overconfidence in interval estimates: what does expertise buy you?, Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process., 107, 179, 10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.02.007 Önkal, 2003, Professional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: the case of foreign exchange rates, Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process., 91, 169, 10.1016/S0749-5978(03)00058-X Jian, 2012, Aggregation and manipulation in prediction markets: effects of trading mechanism and information distribution, Manag. Sci., 58, 123, 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1404 Slamka, 2012, Second-generation prediction markets for information aggregation: a comparison of payoff mechanisms, J. Forecast., 31, 469, 10.1002/for.1225 Slamka, 2013, Prediction market performance and market liquidity: a comparison of automated market makers, IEEE Trans. Eng. Manag., 60, 169, 10.1109/TEM.2012.2191618 Chamley, 2004 Goldenberg, 2004, Inevitably reborn: the reawakening of extinct innovations, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 71, 881, 10.1016/j.techfore.2003.09.005 Banerjee, 1992, A simple model of herd behavior, Q. J. Econ., 107, 797, 10.2307/2118364 Boone, 2009, Top management team diversity and firm performance: moderators of functional-background and locus-of-control diversity, Manag. Sci., 55, 165, 10.1287/mnsc.1080.0899 Bikhchandani, 1992, A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades, J. Polit. Econ., 100, 10.1086/261849 Surowiecki, 2005 Larrick, 2006, Intuitions about combining opinions: misappreciation of the averaging principle, Manag. Sci., 52, 111, 10.1287/mnsc.1050.0459 Makridakis, 1983, Averages of forecasts: some empirical results, Manag. Sci., 29, 987, 10.1287/mnsc.29.9.987 Simmons, 2011, Intuitive biases in choice versus estimation: implications for the wisdom of crowds, J. Consum. Res., 38, 1, 10.1086/658070 Gneiting, 2007, Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 102, 359, 10.1198/016214506000001437 Spann, 2003, Internet-based virtual stock markets for business forecasting, Manag. Sci., 49, 1310, 10.1287/mnsc.49.10.1310.17314 Peeters, 2012, Incentives in prediction markets, J. Prediction Mark., 6, 47, 10.5750/jpm.v6i2.501 Flannery, 2002, Macroeconomic factors do influence aggregate stock returns, Rev. Financ. Stud., 15, 751, 10.1093/rfs/15.3.751 Balduzzi, 2001, Economic news and bond prices: evidence from the U.S. treasury market, J. Financ. Quant. Anal., 36, 523, 10.2307/2676223 Leitch, 1991, Economic forecast evaluation: profits versus the conventional error measures, Am. Econ. Rev., 81, 580 Wilkie, 1996, Application of probability judgement accuracy measures of currency forecasting, Int. J. Forecast., 12, 25, 10.1016/0169-2070(94)02001-9 Oliven, 2004, Suckers are born but markets are made: individual rationality, arbitrage, and market efficiency on an electronic futures market, Manag. Sci., 50, 336, 10.1287/mnsc.1040.0191 Nordhaus, 1987, Forecasting efficiency: concepts and applications, Rev. Econ. Stat., 69, 667, 10.2307/1935962 Harvey, 2001, Analysis of a panel of UK macroeconomic forecasts, Econ. J., 4, 37 Clements, 1997, Evaluating the rationality of fixed-event forecasts, J. Forecast., 16, 225, 10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(199707)16:4<225::AID-FOR656>3.0.CO;2-L Isiklar, 2006, How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys, J. Appl. Econ., 21, 703, 10.1002/jae.886 Krogh, 1995, Neural network ensembles, 231 Page, 2007 Grossman, 1980, On the impossibility of informationally efficient markets, Am. Econ. Rev., 70, 393 Gurkaynak, 2007, Macroeconomic derivatives: an initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty, and risk, 11 Berg, 1997, What makes markets predict well? Evidence from the Iowa electronic markets, 444 Berg, 1997, The Iowa electronic market Bondarenko, 2000, Expectations and learning in Iowa, J. Bank. Financ., 24, 1535, 10.1016/S0378-4266(99)00090-4 Forsythe, 1994, The 1992 Iowa political stock market: September forecasts, Polit. Methodol., 5, 15 Fowler, 2006, Elections and markets: the effect of partisanship, policy risk, and electoral margins on the economy, J. Polit., 68, 89, 10.1111/j.1468-2508.2006.00372.x Kou, 2004, Forecasting the vote: a theoretical comparison of election markets and public opinion polls, Polit. Anal., 12, 277, 10.1093/pan/mph019 Leigh, 2003, What do financial markets think of war in Iraq? Wolfers, 2009, Using markets to inform policy: the case of the Iraq war, Economica, 76, 225, 10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00750.x Antweiler, 1998, The 1997 UBC election stock market, Can. Bus. Econ., 6, 15 Forsythe, 1995, Using market prices to predict election results: the 1993 UBC election stock market, Can. J. Econ., 28, 770, 10.2307/135930 Forsythe, 1998, Markets as predictors of election outcomes: campaign events and judgement bias in the 1993 UBC election stock market, Can. Public Policy, 24, 329, 10.2307/3551972 Bohm, 1999, Political stock markets and unreliable polls, Scand. J. Econ., 101, 205, 10.1111/1467-9442.00153 Brüggelambert, 2004, Information and efficiency in political stock markets: using computerized markets to predict election results, Appl. Econ., 36, 753, 10.1080/0003684042000217364 Hansen, 2004, Manipulation in political stock markets — preconditions and evidence, Appl. Econ. Lett., 11, 459, 10.1080/1350485042000191700 Beckmann, 1996, ‘Passauer Wahlborse’: information processing in a political market experiment, Kyklos, 49, 171, 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1996.tb01391.x Huber, 2005, Systematic mispricing in experimental markets — evidence from political stock markets Ortner, 1995, Political stock markets — the Austrian experience, Z. Betriebswirtsch. Erganzungsbd., 95, 123 Jacobsen, 2000, (In)accuracy of a European political stock market: the influence of common value structures, Eur. Econ. Rev., 44, 205, 10.1016/S0014-2921(98)00081-6 Diemer, 2010, Real-money vs. play-money forecasting accuracy in online prediction markets empirical insights from Ipredict, J. Prediction Mark., 4, 21, 10.5750/jpm.v4i3.479 Christiansen, 2007, Prediction markets: practical experiments in small markets and behaviours observed, J. Prediction Mark., 1, 17, 10.5750/jpm.v1i1.418 Chen, 2008, Modeling a presidential prediction market, Manag. Sci., 54, 1381, 10.1287/mnsc.1080.0872 Snowberg, 2011 Rothschild, 2009, Forecasting elections, Public Opin. Q., 73, 895, 10.1093/poq/nfp082 Chen, 2005, Information markets vs. opinion pools: an empirical comparison, 58 Rosenbloom, 2006, Statistical tests of real-money versus play-money prediction markets, Electron. Mark., 16, 63, 10.1080/10196780500491303 Debnath, 2003, 258 Smith, 2006, Market efficiency in person-to-person betting, Economica, 73, 673, 10.1111/j.1468-0335.2006.00518.x Gruca, 2003, The effect of electronic markets on forecasts of new product success, Inf. Syst. Front., 5, 95, 10.1023/A:1022054108164 Skiera, 2004, Opportunities of virtual stock markets to support new product development, 227 Teschner, 2011, Short-selling in prediction markets, J. Prediction Mark., 5, 14, 10.5750/jpm.v5i2.487 Teschner, 2011, A prediction market for macro-economic variables, 1 Mangold, 2005, The Tech Buzz Game [stock market prediction], Computer, 38, 94, 10.1109/MC.2005.243 Kiviat, 2004, The end of management?