Ảnh hưởng của Dipole Ấn Độ Dương và sự nạp năng lượng Thái Bình Dương đến El Niño năm sau: độ bền giữa các thập kỷ

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 42 - Trang 291-310 - 2013
Takeshi Izumo1,2, Matthieu Lengaigne2, Jérôme Vialard2, Jing-Jia Luo3,4, Toshio Yamagata1,5, Gurvan Madec2,6
1University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
2Laboratoire d’Océanographie: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), IRD, CNRS, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05, France
3Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan
4CAWCR, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
5Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan
6National Oceanographic, Centre, Southampton, UK

Tóm tắt

Dipole Ấn Độ Dương (IOD) có thể ảnh hưởng đến trạng thái của hiện tượng El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) trong năm tiếp theo, ngoài sự điều kiện sẵn có từ Thể tích Nước Ấm ở Thái Bình Dương (WWV), như đã được gợi ý bởi một nghiên cứu dựa trên quan sát trong kỷ nguyên vệ tinh gần đây (1981–2009). Bài báo hiện tại khám phá độ bền giữa các thập kỷ của kết quả này trong khoảng thời gian 1872–2008. Để đạt được điều này, chúng tôi phát triển một chỉ số IOD vững chắc, tận dụng tốt các quan sát lịch sử thưa thớt ở Ấn Độ Dương nhiệt đới, và một yếu tố đại diện hiệu quả cho các biến thể hàng năm của WWV dựa trên tích phân theo thời gian của ứng suất gió phía Đông Thái Bình Dương (theo một phân tích khí quyển lịch sử). Một mô hình dự báo hồi quy tuyến tính dựa trên hai chỉ số này trong mùa thu Bắc Bán Cầu giải thích 50% phương sai đỉnh ENSO sau 14 tháng, với sự đóng góp đáng kể từ cả IOD và WWV trong hầu hết các khoảng thời gian lịch sử và kỹ năng tương tự cho các sự kiện El Niño và La Niña. Kết quả của chúng tôi còn cho thấy rằng, khi kết hợp với WWV, chỉ số IOD cung cấp cải thiện kỹ năng dự báo ENSO lớn hơn so với chế độ toàn bồn Ấn Độ Dương, Gió mùa Ấn Độ hoặc chính ENSO. Dựa trên những kết quả này, chúng tôi đề xuất một sơ đồ điều chỉnh về các tương tác Ấn Độ - Thái Bình Dương. Trong sơ đồ này, các tương tác IOD–ENSO có xu hướng chu kỳ hai năm và tương tác với chu kỳ nạp nặng-ngắt nhả chậm hơn vốn có của Thái Bình Dương.

Từ khóa

#Dipole Ấn Độ Dương #El Niño #Southern Oscillation #Thái Bình Dương #Nước Ấm #sóng khí quyển #mô hình dự báo.

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