Improving the accuracy of gridded population estimates in cities and slums to monitor SDG 11: Evidence from a simulation study in Namibia

Land Use Policy - Tập 123 - Trang 106392 - 2022
Dana R. Thomson1, Forrest R. Stevens2, Robert Chen3, Gregory Yetman3, Alessandro Sorichetta4, Andrea E. Gaughan2
1Faculty of Geo-Information Science & Earth Observation, University of Twente, 7514 AE Enschede, Netherlands
2Department of Geography & Geosciences, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, 40292, USA
3Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, Palisades NY 10964, USA
4WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK

Tài liệu tham khảo

de Ferranti J, 2017a. Digital elevation data - Viewfinder panoramas. [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: www.viewfinderpanoramas.org/dem3.html. de Ferranti J, 2017b. Digital elevation data: SRTM void fill - Viewfinder panoramas. [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: www.viewfinderPanoramas.org/voidfill.html. European Commission - Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC), 2017. Global human settlement city model (GHS-SMOD). [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: http://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/faq.php. Facebook Connectivity Lab and CIESIN-Columbia University, 2016. High Resolution Settlement Layer (HRSL). [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: https://data.humdata.org/dataset/highresolutionpopulationdensitymaps. Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA), 2013. Namibia 2011 Population and Housing Census [PUMS dataset] version 1.0. [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: https://nsa.org.na/microdata1/index.php/catalog/19. OpenStreetMap. OpenStreetMap base data. 2000 [dataset] [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: www.openstreetmap.org. Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA), 2011. 2011 Census EA boundaries. [cited 1 Oct 2020]. Available: https://nsa.org.na/page/gis-data-requests/. WorldPop, 2020a. Population Counts 2000–2020 UN-Adjusted Unconstrained 100m. [cited 13 Jun 2021]. doi: 10.5258/SOTON/WP00660. Archila Bustos, 2020, A pixel level evaluation of five multitemporal global gridded population datasets: a case study in Sweden, 1990–2015, Popul Environ., 42, 255, 10.1007/s11111-020-00360-8 Bharti, 2016, Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage, Sci. Rep., 6, 34541, 10.1038/srep34541 Bondarenko, M., Kerr, D., Sorichetta, A., Tatem, A.J., 2020. Population Counts 2000-2020 UN-Adjusted Constrained 100m. [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: doi:10.5258/SOTON/WP00685. Calka, 2020, GHS-POP accuracy assessment: Poland and Portugal case study, Remote Sens, 12, 1105, 10.3390/rs12071105 Carr-Hill, 2013, Missing millions and measuring development progress, World Dev., 46, 30, 10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.12.017 Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN - Columbia University, 2018b. Country-level Information and Sources Revision 11. [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/downloads/docs/gpw-v4/gpw-v4-country-level-summary-rev11.xlsx. Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN - Columbia University, 2018a. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4.11 (GPWv4.11). [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: https://doi.org/10.7927/H4F47M65. Cutts, 2020, Using models to shape measles control and elimination strategies in low- and middle-income countries: a review of recent applications, Vaccine, 38, 979, 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.11.020 Dobson, 2000, LandScan: a global population database for estimating populations at risk, Photo Eng. Remote Sens., 66, 849 Dooley, C.A., Leasure, D.R., Boo, G., Tatem, A.J., 2021. Gridded Maps of Building Patterns throughout sub-Saharan Africa, version 2.0. [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: doi:10.5258/SOTON/WP00712. Doxsey-Whitfield, 2015, Taking advantage of the improved availability of census data: a first look at the Gridded Population of the World, Version 4, Pap. Appl. Geogr., 1, 226, 10.1080/23754931.2015.1014272 Slum/Shack Dwellers International (SDI), 2016. Know Your City Campaign. [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: http://knowyourcity.info/explore-our-data/. European Commission - Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC), 2020. Global human settlement population model (GHS-POP). [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/data.php. European Space Agency - Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI), 2017b. Land Cover CCI Product - Annual LC maps from 2000 to 2015 (v2.0.7). [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: 〈http://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/viewer/〉. European Space Agency - Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI), 2017a. Land cover CCI product - MERIS Waterbody product v4.0 (150 m). [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: http://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/viewer/. Fick, 2017, WorldClim 2: New 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas, Int J. Clim., 37, 4302, 10.1002/joc.5086 Frye, 2018, Using classified and unclassified land cover data to estimate the footprint of human settlement, Data Sci. J., 17, 1, 10.5334/dsj-2018-020 Gaughan, 2015, Exploring nationally and regionally defined models for large area population mapping, Int J. Digit Earth, 8, 12, 10.1080/17538947.2014.965761 Hay, 2005, The accuracy of human population maps for public health application, Trop. Med Int Heal, 10, 1073, 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2005.01487.x Jochem, 2021, Tools for mapping multi-scale settlement patterns of building footprints: an introduction to the R package foot, PLoS One, 16, 10.1371/journal.pone.0247535 Kerins, 2020, WRI: Urban Land Use, GitHub Kerins, 2021, Mapping urban land use in India and Mexico using remote sensing and machine learning, World Resources Institute, 10.46830/writn.20.00048 Leasure, 2020, National population mapping from sparse survey data: a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. Usa., 117, 24173, 10.1073/pnas.1913050117 Leasure D.R., Dooley C.A., Bondarenko M., Tatem A.J. peanutButter: An R package to produce rapid-response gridded population estimates from building footprints, version 0.3.0. 2020b [cited 1 Oct 2021]. doi: 10.5258/SOTON/WP00681. Leyk, 2019, Allocating people to pixels: A review of large-scale gridded population data products and their fitness for use, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., 11, 1385, 10.5194/essd-11-1385-2019 Lloyd, 2019, Global spatio-temporally harmonised datasets for producing high-resolution gridded population distribution datasets, Big Earth Data, 3, 108, 10.1080/20964471.2019.1625151 Lloyd, 2020, Using GIS and machine learning to classify residential status of urban buildings in low and middle income settings, Remote Sens, 12, 3847, 10.3390/rs12233847 Newaya, 2010, Rapid urbanization and its influence on the growth of informal settlements in Windhoek, Namibia [dissertation], Cape Penins. Univ. Technol. Nieves, 2020, Annually modelling built-settlements between remotely-sensed observations using relative changes in subnational populations and lights at night, Comput. Environ. Urban Syst., 80, 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2019.101444 UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA). Sustainable Development Goals. In: Sustain Development Knowledge Platform. 2018 [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgs. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA), 2018. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision. [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: https://population.un.org/wup/DataQuery/. Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA). Namibia Population Projections 2011–2041. Windhoek Namibia; 2014. Available: https://cms.my.na/assets/documents/p19dn4fhgp14t5ns24g4p6r1c401.pdf. Oak Ridge National Laboratories (ORNL), 2021. Population count. [cited 1 Nov 2022]. Available: https://landscan.ornl.gov/. Pesaresi, 2016, Operating procedure for the production of the Global Human Settlement Layer from Landsat data of the epochs 1975, 1990, 2000, and 2014 POPGRID Data Collaborative. Leaving no one off the map: A guide for gridded population data for sustainable development. New York NY USA; 2020. Available: www.popgrid.org/sites/default/files/documents/popgrid-executive-summary-final.pdf. Pradhan, 2019, Antagonists to meeting the 2030 Agenda, Nat. Sustain, 2, 171, 10.1038/s41893-019-0248-8 Qiu, 2019, Geospatial disaggregation of population data in supporting SDG assessments: a case study from Deqing County, China, ISPRS Int J. Geo-Inf., 8, 356, 10.3390/ijgi8080356 Sorichetta, 2015, High-resolution gridded population datasets for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2010, 2015, and 2020, Sci. Data, 2, 10.1038/sdata.2015.45 Stevens, 2015, Disaggregating census data for population mapping using random forests with remotely-sensed and ancillary data, PLoS One, 10, 10.1371/journal.pone.0107042 Thomson, 2018, Linking synthetic populations to household geolocations: a demonstration in Namibia, Data, 3, 30, 10.3390/data3030030 Thomson, 2020, Gridded population survey sampling: a systematic scoping review of the field and strategic research agenda, Int J. Health Geogr., 19, 34, 10.1186/s12942-020-00230-4 Thomson, 2020, Need for an integrated deprived area “slum” mapping system (IDEAMAPS) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), Soc. Sci., 9, 80, 10.3390/socsci9050080 Thomson, 2022, How accurate are WorldPop-Global-Unconstrained gridded population data at the cell-level?: A simulation analysis in urban Namibia, PLoS ONE, 17, 10.1371/journal.pone.0271504 Thomson, 2021, Evaluating the accuracy of gridded population estimates in slums: a case study in Nigeria and Kenya, Urban Sci., 5, 48, 10.3390/urbansci5020048 Thomson, 2021, Addressing unintentional exclusion of vulnerable and mobile households in traditional surveys in Kathmandu, Dhaka, and Hanoi: a mixed-methods feasibility study, J. Urban Heal., 98, 111, 10.1007/s11524-020-00485-z Thorndike, 1939, On the fallacy of imputing the correlations found for groups to the individuals or smaller groups composing them, Am. J. Psychol., 52, 122, 10.2307/1416673 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2012. VIIRS nighttime lights. [cited 1 Oct 2020]. Available: https://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/VIIRS_DNB_nighttime_imagery/index.html. CIESIN, UNFPA, WorldPop, and Flowminder, 2018. Geo-Referenced Infrastructure and Demographic Data for Development (GRID3). [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: www.grid3.org. UN Environment Programme - World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMS) and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 2016. World database on protected areas. [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available www.protectedplanet.net. Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA). Namibia Population and Housing Census 2011 main report. Windhoek Namibia; 2011. Available: www.nsa.org.na/files/downloads/Namibia 2011 Population and Housing Census Main Report.pdf. Weiss, 2018, A global map of travel time to cities to assess inequalities in accessibility in 2015, Nature, 553, 333, 10.1038/nature25181 Wigley, 2020, Measuring the availability and geographical accessibility of maternal health services across sub-Saharan Africa, BMC Med, 18, 237, 10.1186/s12916-020-01707-6 Thomson D, 2022. Mendeley Data, v1. [cited 2 Sep 2022]. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.17632/9svzgbwcr8.1. WorldPop. Top-down estimation modelling: Constrained vs unconstrained. 2020b [cited 1 Oct 2021]. Available: www.worldpop.org/methods/top_down_constrained_vs_unconstrained.