Impacts of EU Sanctions Levied in 2014 on Individual European Countries' Exports to Russia: Winners and Losers

We analyse the effects of sanctions implemented by the European Union against Russia following the latter’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Indirect effects of sanctions on its non-prohibited exports to Russia are examined using a gravity model of trade that includes a time varying sanction index. A per country analysis is also incorporated to increase the granularity of the results. We find that sanctions led to a decrease in exports of non-prohibited products from certain European countries (i.e., the “losers”) while increasing such exports from others (i.e., the “winners”), an outcome that qualifies as an “unintended consequence” of the sanctions.